Wind Advisory 18, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
642 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2011

.DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR STRATUS NOT A PREVALENT AS ANTICIPATED MVFR STRATUS NOT A PREVALENT AS ANTICIPATED
THIS MORNING...HOWEVER A BAND OF MVFR CIGS HAS DEVELOPED FROM I-37
TO HIGHWAY 16 OR SO AND EVEN SEING SOME IFR CIGS IN THIS REGION AS
WELL. MOISTURE DEPTH IS SHALLOW THIS MORNING...SO ANTICIPATE MVFR
CONDITIONS TO BE SHORT LIVED WITH VFR ALL AREAS BY LATE MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE DEPENDING TO THE NORTH WILL PROVIDE WINDY CONDITIONS
OUT OF THE SSE TODAY. WITH STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET AND HIGHER
DEWPOINTS TONIGHT...EXPECT EARLIER ONSET OF LOW CIGS (MVFR) THIS EVENING
MORE IN LINE W/ TRENDS FROM A WEEK AGO.THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER A BAND OF MVFR CIGS HAS DEVELOPED FROM I-37 TO
HIGHWAY 16 OR SO AND EVEN SEING SOME IFR CIGS IN THIS REGION AS
WELL. MOISTURE DEPTH IS SHALLOW THIS MORNING...SO ANTICIPATE MVFR
CONDITIONS TO BE SHORT LIVED WITH VFR ALL AREAS BY LATE MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE DEPENDING TO THE NORTH WILL PROVIDE WINDY CONDITIONS
OUT OF THE SSE TODAY. WITH STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET AND HIGHER
DEWPOINTS TONIGHT...EXPECT EARLIER ONSET OF LOW CIGS (MVFR) THIS
EVENING MORE IN LINE W/ TRENDS FROM A WEEK AGO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2011/

SHORT TERM...BIG STORY THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE WIND AS
TIGHT PGRAD WILL EXIST BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM WEST
TEXAS ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO NRN MEXICO AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NRN GULF COAST. IN FACT MODELS SHOW AROUND 5 MB GRADIENT BETWEEN
LRD AND VCT TODAY AND AROUND 6 MB ON SUN. THINK WINDS WILL FALL
SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY...BUT ARE MORE LIKELY TO
REACH IT ON SUN AT LEAST FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA. BECAUSE THE
TROUGH IS SO FAR WEST IN MEXICO...EVEN LRD WILL GET TO ENJOY THE
BREEZE THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH IS GOOD AS TEMPS WILL SOAR TO
NEAR 110 AGAIN TODAY. DAYSHIFT MIGHT NEED TO PLACE WEBB COUNTY IN
A HEAT ADVISORY...BUT TOUGH CALL AS IT DEPENDS ON HOW FAR
DEWPOINTS END UP MIXING OUT. WENT NEAR PERSISTENCE FOR TEMPS TODAY
WHICH IS GENERALLY ABOVE GUIDANCE...BUT DID SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OF
TEMPS IN THE COASTAL BEND GIVEN STRONG ONSHORE WINDS. TEMPS MAY
COME DOWN A FEW MORE DEGREES ON SUN AS CLOUDS MAY HOLD ON A LITTLE
LONGER AND WINDS WILL BE BACKED A LITTLE MORE DIRECTLY ONSHORE.

MARINE...WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO OVER 20 KNOTS ACROSS A
SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF TCOON SITES IN THE BAYS. THIS IS IN PART DUE
TO NOCTURNAL INFLUENCES WITH 81-83 DEG WATERS. WINDS MAY WEAKEN
BELOW SCA LEVELS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATER THIS MORNING ONLY TO
HAVE THEM INCREASE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG
NOCTURNAL WINDS TONIGHT MIGHT GUST TO GALE FORCE AT TIMES. NOT
MUCH CHANGE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE LOW TO
THE NW...AND BASED ON THIS STRETCHED THE SCA THROUGH SUN NIGHT FOR
NOW.

FIRE WEATHER...RH VALUES DIPPED INTO THE LOWER 20S ON FRI ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WEST OF HWY 281 GIVEN SHALLOW MOISTURE
PROFILES...VERY HOT TEMPS AND EXTREMELY DRY SOIL/VEGETATION. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO HAPPEN AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER S-SE WINDS
WILL BE STRONGER TODAY AND THIS WILL PROMOTE A HIGH WILD FIRE
DANGER IN THESE SAME AREAS. WILL INCLUDE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THE WESTERN 4 COS TODAY.

LONG TERM (MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...BOTH SURFACE LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS W TX WILL HELP KEEP S TX
CONTINUED BREEZY TO WINDY FOR MEMORIAL DAY. AFTER MONDAY STRONG MID
LEVEL RIDGING RETROGRADES FROM E CONUS AND BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS
OKLA AND N TX. CWA TO BE ON SOUTH SIDE OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALLOWING
ATMOSPHERIC WIND PROFILE TO BECOME EASTERLY AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP PWATS LOW
EVEN WITH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW THUS LITTLE CHANCES OF PRECIP EXIST.
ONLY CHANCES WOULD BE A BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS COASTAL BEND
ALONG AFTERNOON SEABREEZE BY MIDWEEK...BUT ATTM CHANCES OF THAT
OCCURRING ARE ALSO LOW. H7-H5 RIDGE PERSISTS FOR LATTER HALF OF WEEK
WITH CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE OVER S TX. HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR
MAX TEMPS DUE TO DRY SOIL MOISTURES LEADING TO LACK OF
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND ALLOWING OF MAX MIXING POTENTIAL BEING
REALIZED. LEANED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS. WENT WITH DGEX/GFS
BLEND FOR WIND SPEEDS THROUGH DAY 6 AND DGEX BEYOND THAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    92  78  91  78  93  /   0   0   0  10  10
VICTORIA          94  75  91  77  94  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO           110  80 106  80 105  /   0   0   0  10  10
ALICE             99  77  96  77  97  /   0   0  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          89  80  88  79  88  /   0   0   0  10  10
COTULLA          107  76 101  79 100  /   0   0   0  10  10
KINGSVILLE        96  78  94  77  93  /   0   0   0  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       88  80  88  78  88  /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DUVAL...LA SALLE...
     MCMULLEN...WEBB.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

MJG/88...SHORT TERM
MJG/88...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
554 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2011

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-291100-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
554 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ELEVATED HEAT INDICES OF 104 TO 109 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
INTERIOR PORTIONS THE COASTAL BEND AND THE BRUSH COUNTRY GENERALLY
WEST OF INTERSTATE 37. SOME ISOLATED READINGS OF 110 TO 115
DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE LAREDO AREA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE BAYS AND GULF WATERS
FOR STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE AREA.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE AREA
BEACHES TODAY.

THE COMBINATION OF WINDY CONDITIONS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY RANGING
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT WILL PROVIDE A CRITICAL WILD FIRE THREAT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BRUSH COUNTRY GENERALLY NEAR AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 16.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES ON
SUNDAY.

ELEVATED AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES FROM 105 TO AROUND 110 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY MAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
BRUSH COUNTRY AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE GULF WATERS
THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
743 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2011

TXZ229>231-239>244-282000-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-WEBB-DUVAL-JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-
SAN PATRICIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COTULLA...CALLIHAM...CROSS...
LOMA ALTA...TILDEN...GEORGE WEST...THREE RIVERS...LAREDO...
FREER...BENAVIDES...SAN DIEGO...ALICE...ORANGE GROVE...
KINGSVILLE...CORPUS CHRISTI...PORTLAND...INGLESIDE...
ARANSAS PASS...SINTON...MATHIS
743 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2011

...HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 104 AND 109 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...

THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 104 AND 109 DEGREES
TODAY. SOME ISOLATED HEAT INDEX READINGS OF 110 TO 115 WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD NEAR LAREDO. RESIDENTS WITH OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES PLANNED ARE URGED TO DRINK PLENTY OF WATER...WEAR LIGHT
WEIGHT AND LIGHT COLORED CLOTHING...AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS FROM
THE HEAT. YOUNG CHILDREN AND PETS SHOULD NEVER BE LEFT UNATTENDED
IN VEHICLES UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE
DURING WARM OR HOT WEATHER WHEN CAR INTERIORS CAN REACH LETHAL
TEMPERATURES IN A MATTER OF MINUTES.