Small Craft Advisory 44, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1128 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2011

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAF CYCLE.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS AND LOW ST WILL DEVELOP OVER NIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING AND DISSIPATING.
GRADIENT TO REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...WITH
SIGNIFICANT SE WINDS AND GUSTS. LOW ST TO REDEVELOP AFTER SUNSET
MONDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS BY LATE EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2011/

DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...ISOLD...BUT LARGE MEXICAN MOUNTAIN DRYLINE TSTMS WILL
DRIFT EAST TOWARD THE BORDER BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE RIO
GRANDE AS A CAP WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY THIS EVENING EAST TO WEST. GIVEN
THIS...TSTMS NOT MENTIONED IN LRD TAF...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. NEXT UPR TROUGH DIGGING INTO INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW...BUT ONLY SHALLOW GULF
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED BELOW A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. ALTHOUGH
SHALLOW...MOIST LAYER IS SUBSTANTIAL WITH SFC DEWPOINTS EXPECTED
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PROMOTE OVERNIGHT GULF
STRATUS THAT MAY HOVER NEAR THE IFR/MVFR LINE. LEANED TOWARD MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR MOST PART ESPECIALLY GIVEN MODEL LOW BIASES IN PAST
MONTH OR SO...BUT IFR NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS MODELS DEPICT A
LOWERING OF THE CAP W/ DRY AIR INTRUSION JUST ABOVE 1000 FT AGL.
STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LITTLE
UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER THE CIRRUS FROM CBS TO THE WEST WILL HAVE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON DEVELOPMENT. DO NOT EXPECT STRATUS WILL
REACH LRD GIVEN A MORE SRLY FLOW OFF THE DECK. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN GIVEN SHALLOW NATURE OF
THE MOIST LAYER AND EXPECTED SCATTERING OUT OF BKN DECKS. WILL BE
BREEZY TO WINDY AREA WIDE ON MON AND MAY APPROACH AWW CRITERIA IN
CRP (GUSTS TO 35 KTS).

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2011/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...ANOTHER NIGHT OF WARM
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTING. LOW
LEVEL STRATUS EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LIFT AND BURN OUT
AGAIN LATE TOMORROW MORNING.

WITH DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...EXPECTING WIND SPEEDS TO
INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
ALONG THE COAST. COULD SEE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL
HOURS...AT LEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE VERY WARM (HOT OUT WEST) AGAIN MONDAY WITH 100S WEST OF
HIGHWAY 16 AND 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE COAST AND
VICTORIA AREA. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD RELAX SOME BY THE LATE EVENING
ACROSS INLAND AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...FORECAST BEGINS TUESDAY WITH
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS TUESDAY AND RIDGING
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY EXTENDING INTO SOUTH TEXAS. THE
RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE SETS UP
ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS NORTHWEST INTO THE
HILL COUNTRY...WITH PWS APPROACH 1.8" IN THIS REGION. CAP WEAKENS
ACROSS THE WEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT DOES NOT COMPLETELY
ERODE. NEVERTHELESS...WILL HAVE TO WATCH CONVECTION LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU FOR POSSIBLE PROPAGATION INTO THE WESTERN CWA TUESDAY NIGHT.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN INDICATING WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME AS THE BETTER POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION MAKING IT
INTO THE AREA...POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS THE INLAND COASTAL BEND.
H85-H7 TEMPS DO COOL DURING THIS TIME AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING DOES
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. LEFT EXIT REGION OF MODEST UPPER LEVEL JET ALSO
APPEARS TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. POOL OF 1.8-1.9" PW IS
DRAGGED FURTHER EAST INTO THE CWA. GIVEN THIS...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL NOT GO HIGHER DUE
TO CONFIDENCE OF CAP COMPLETELY ERODING AND TIMING/POSITIONING OF
SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA THIS FAR OUT. SHOULD STORMS MAKE
IT INTO THE AREA COULD BE A FEW STRONGER ONES GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR
35-40 KTS. WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND WHERE POOL OF HIGHER PW REMAINS...ALTHOUGH
BY THIS TIME UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHOULD BE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA.

SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THEN
WARMER SATURDAY. GFS IS HINTING AT A FRONT ON SUNDAY WHILE THE ECMWF
MAINTAINS SOUTHEAST FLOW. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW BEYOND SATURDAY AT
THIS TIME.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAYS WITH THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE LATE THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE BAYS WITH NEAR ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE
SOUTHERN NEAR-SHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT. HAVE NOT POSTED AN ADVISORY
FOR THE SOUTHERN NEAR-SHORE AT THIS POINT AS IT SEEMS MARGINAL.

FIRE WEATHER...AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP AT OR
BELOW 30 PERCENT WEST OF HIGHWAY 16 AGAIN TOMORROW. WINDS COULD
GUST BETWEEN 20-25 MPH FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
LEAD TO AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THREAT. OVERALL...DO NOT EXPECT A
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL THREAT TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    74  90  74  88  76  /   0   0  10  10  10
VICTORIA          73  90  74  90  75  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            77 106  76 102  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             73  97  72  93  74  /   0   0  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          76  85  75  85  77  /   0   0  10  10  10
COTULLA           72 102  72  98  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        74  95  73  92  76  /   0   0  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       74  86  74  85  77  /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

JV/71...SHORT TERM
MJG/88...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
549 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2011

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-091100-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
549 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CORPUS CHRISTI
AND BAFFIN BAYS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OUT TO 20 NAUTICAL MILES TONIGHT.

AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ACROSS WEBB...LA SALLE...MCMULLEN AND DUVAL COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITION MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE BRUSH
COUNTRY MONDAY DUE TO LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WIND.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY OVER THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS...AND OVER MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

MB/WC