Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

264 
WWUS54 KCRP 121810
SVSCRP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
110 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

TXC479-121819-
/O.CAN.KCRP.SV.W.0016.000000T0000Z-110512T1830Z/
WEBB-
110 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN WEBB COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IINDICATES THE STORM THAT 
PROMOTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. 

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 2730 9951 2732 9956 2735 9952 2748 9950
      2750 9951 2751 9954 2757 9953 2764 9961
      2763 9967 2767 9968 2779 9955 2760 9903
      2728 9942 2726 9949
TIME...MOT...LOC 1809Z 312DEG 18KT 2747 9936

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1045 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

.DISCUSSION...INCREASED POPS ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST...AS CONVECTIVE
LINE WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS TODAY. ALSO
INCLUDED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN ZONES. WE SHALL HAVE TO SEE THE
PROGRESS OF THE LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE POPS FOR
TONIGHT...SO HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY UPDATES AFTER THIS AFTERNOON.
NEW NAM IS KEEPING MOISTURE AROUND LONGER FOR FRIDAY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...WILL SEE WHAT THE NEW GFS HAS BUT FEELING STILL IS
THAT DRIER AIR WILL TAKE OVER. PRODUCTS UPDATED.

&&

.MARINE...INCLUDED SCEC FOR ALL MARINE INTERESTS DUE TO WINDS NEAR
THE COAST AND SEAS OFFSHORE. EXTENDED HIGHER SEAS INTO TONIGHT.
INCREASED POPS FOR OFFSHORE WATERS JUST A BIT. WILL WATCH WINDS AS
RUC13/NAM12 SHOWING SCA WINDS OVER NEARSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. COULD
HAPPEN ESPECIALLY IF RISE/FALL COUPLET DEVELOPS LATER TODAY BUT RATHER
WAIT ON THAT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011/

DISCUSSION...PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR WATCH. INCREASED POPS
AND QPF OVER THE AREA...AS CONVECTION LIKELY TO MAKE IT SOUTH.
WILL UPDATE OTHER THINGS AS NEEDED...BUT FOR NOW THAT IS ALL THAT
IS REQUIRED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011/

DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...ALL TERMINALS WILL BE MVFR FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE
MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS THIS MID MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON (16Z TO 22Z). SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 AND
LARGE HAIL. AVIATORS SHOULD BE AWARE OF STRONG UPDRAFTS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH CIGS AFTER 03Z LOWERING TO IFR LEVELS THROUGH 12Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...TSTMS QUICKLY COMMENCED NORTH
OF DEL RIO THIS EARLY MORNING. OUTFLOW FROM PREVIOUS EVENING
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MIGRATED SOUTH
AND WEST INTO THE THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS AND THEN INTO THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THIS BOUNDARY IN CONCERT
WITH STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET AND DECREASING CAP OVER THE FAR
WEST BRUSH COUNTY LENDS TO ELEVATED CHANCES OF CONVECTION ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THIS EARLY MORNING AND NW OF HIGHWAY 59 BY
LATE MORNING AS UPSTREAM CONVECTION WORKS ITS WAY SOUTHWARD INTO
WEAK THETA-E RIDGE. HEIGHTENED CAPES (AROUND 3000 J/KG) COMBINED WITH
LIMITED CIN DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS WITH SEVERE MENTIONED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA. COUPLE OF MODELS INDICATE
THAT STRONGEST CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN
PRECIPICE OF THE CWA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 287 IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 10 AM FOR LASALLE COUNTY (15Z). FURTHER SE TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND...THE CAP STILL IS PRETTY STRONG BUT SHOULD
SLOWLY ERODE THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOW END CHANCE OF SHWRS AND TSTMS.
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF MID LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL SWING THROUGH CWA
THIS EVENING WITH SOME LINGERING CONVECTION OVER THE CWA AS
ANOTHER WEAK VORT LOBE TRANSITIONS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. LINGERING
CONVECTION FROM THURSDAY EVENING SHOULD MOVE EAST ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE BEST
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SHIFTS EAST. DRIER AIR WILL START FILTERING
INTO THE THE AREA ON FRIDAY. GOOD MID LEVEL AND SLOWER LOW LEVEL
DRYING OCCURS FRIDAY...AND ANY RESIDUAL RAINFALL WILL BE WELL
OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING AS AS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO TAKE OVER. WENT A TAD WARMER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE FRIDAY
DUE TO THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO MOVE TO EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH FORCES A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA.  MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS THE FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z ON SATURDAY.  NORTHERLY WINDS
AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE COASTAL BEND BY SATURDAY AND
PROVIDE A WELCOME RELIEF TO THE HUMID CONDITIONS OF LATE.  AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY WILL BE BELOW 30
PERCENT OVER THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER WEAK WINDS WILL PREVENT CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.  A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN US
TROUGH ON MONDAY WILL REINFORCE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH OF THE CWA.  THUS...EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE.  WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW MOS FOR
LOWS OVER THE WEEKEND AS SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT.  AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...SURFACE
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.  THERE WILL BE A MORE
NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN SURFACE MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND RESULTING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    85  76  92  67  87  /  80  40  10  10   0
VICTORIA          86  72  91  60  86  /  80  40  20   0   0
LAREDO            91  76 102  71  94  /  80  30  10  10   0
ALICE             89  74  96  65  90  /  70  40  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          84  75  89  67  84  /  70  40  10  10   0
COTULLA           88  73  95  64  91  /  90  30  10   0   0
KINGSVILLE        90  75  96  66  89  /  70  40  10  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       84  76  88  70  83  /  70  40  10  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

GW/86...GRIDS/AVIATION
76/81...MESO/WARNINGS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
906 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-131415-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
906 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS AS A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS TODAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. AN ISOLATED AND BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS ON SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUIRED OVER SOUTH TEXAS TODAY.

SCC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1131 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

TXZ229>233-121730-
BEE-GOLIAD-LA SALLE-LIVE OAK-MCMULLEN-
1131 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE AFFECTING BEE...GOLIAD...LA SALLE...LIVE
OAK AND MCMULLEN COUNTIES...

AT 1126 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES WEST OF
LOMA ALTA TO WHITSETT TO KENEDY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

MLG/77

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1229 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

TXZ231>233-243-244-246-247-121830-
BEE-CALHOUN-GOLIAD-LIVE OAK-NUECES-REFUGIO-SAN PATRICIO-
1229 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE AFFECTING BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...LIVE
OAK...NUECES...REFUGIO AND SAN PATRICIO COUNTIES...

AT 1222 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM GOLIAD TO LAGARTO...
OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM GOLIAD TO 7 MILES WEST OF MATHIS...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE HALF TO ONE INCH.

TE