Red Flag Warning 5, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

706 
WWUS84 KCRP 051531 AAA
RFWCRP

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
931 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2011

...DANGEROUS RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...

.STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE...MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PUSH IN BEHIND
THE FRONT. THIS WILL PRODUCE RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS.

TXZ230-231-240>244-052300-
/O.EXA.KCRP.FW.W.0005.110305T1700Z-110305T2300Z/
MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-DUVAL-JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-
931 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A RED
FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON. 

SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH AT TIMES WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN PERSIST
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AS LOW AS
20 TO 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE INLAND COUNTIES...AND 30
TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. HUMIDITIES WILL BEGIN RECOVERING
IN THE EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS AND FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

TXZ229-239-052300-
/O.CON.KCRP.FW.W.0005.110305T1700Z-110305T2300Z/
LA SALLE-WEBB-
931 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH AT TIMES WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN PERSIST
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AS LOW AS
15 TO 20 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. HUMIDITIES WILL BEGIN RECOVERING IN THE
EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS AND FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

GW/MB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
524 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2011

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...AS OF 11Z THE COLD FRONT WAS
ALONG A SAT-CLL LINE AND WAS ACCELERATING SWD GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD
3-5 MB PRESSURE RISES BEHIND IT. AREA RADARS CONTINUED TO INDICATE
A BLOSSOMING OF PCPN ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THIS WAS
DUE TO A BROAD CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING.
THE FORCING WAS BEING TRIGGERED BY A POTENT S/WV CURRENTLY DIGGING
SEWD ACROSS WEST TX. THIS S/WV WL CLIP OUR CWA LATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY THIS AFTN BEFORE EXITING ACROSS SE TX AND LOUISIANA BY
LATE AFTN. THE BEST FORCING WL EXIST OVER THE WATERS AS ALL THE
MODELS INDICATE A STRONG DIFLUENT SIGNATURE IN THIS AREA. DYNAMICS
WL BE MODEST ACROSS THE LAND AREAS AND THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SO WL DISCOUNT THE
CURRENT MOS POPS WHICH FOR SOME REASON ARE DRIER THAN THE PRIOR
RUNS. WL GO WITH LKLY/CAT POPS ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND
WATERS WITH CHC POPS ELSEWHERE. WL ALSO MENTION THUNDER AS THE CAP
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND RESULTING CAPES WL TOP OUT AROUND 1200
J/KG. MAY SEE ONE OR TWO STRONG STORMS GIVEN THE STEEP MID LVL
LAPSE RATES AND DRY IN THE MID LVLS. ANOTHER ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH WL
BE THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WL GUST UP TO 35 MPH BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH A FEW LOCATIONS APPROACHING 40 MPH. FROM THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTN...IT WL BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVY
CONDITIONS BUT OVERALL EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE JUST SHY OF
CRITERIA. WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING AS BOTH
THE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND THE DECOUPLING PROCESS BEGINS. A COOLER
THAN NORMAL AND VERY DRY FCST WL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC OCCURS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE EXTENDED BEGINS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST ALLOWING ONSHORE FLOW TO RESUME. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE ROCKIES WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST NORTH OF
THE PANHANDLE. THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE SLACKED ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM ONLY SLIGHTLY HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT SURFACE WINDS
TO BECOME MODERATE TO STRONG. STRONG SOUTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
AIDE IN WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS WELL AS AIDE
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG CAPPING OVER THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WITH THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN CWA
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...THEN EXIT THE COAST AFTER 12Z. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND WITH PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONT REACHING OVER
1 INCH. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH...WILL EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS BELOW THE CAP. HOWEVER...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE
CAP...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD NOT BE RULED OUT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN CWA AND OVER THE GULF
WATERS. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL THEN ALLOW WINDS TO
STRENGTHEN FOR A SHORT WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH EXTREMELY DRY
AIR FILTERING IN...EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA.
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE OVER WITH WINDS WEAKENING LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. THE HIGH WILL THEN BEGIN TO
SHIFT EAST BY FRIDAY MORNING ALLOWING A WARMING TREND FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL EARLY THIS
MORNING. ONCE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SOUTH TX...CONDITIONS
WL TRANSITION QUICKLY TO MVFR CONDITIONS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CLEAR THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
AREAS OF PCPN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT. THE RAIN CHANCES WL END BY 18Z IN MOST AREAS.
STRONG NORTH WINDS UP TO 30 TO 35 KT WL OCCUR FROM THE TIME OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z. WINDS WL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY
00Z.

&&

.MARINE...WL HOIST A SMALL CRAFT ADVY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO
THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO
GUST UP TO GALE FORCE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SEAS
REACHING AS HIGH AS 9 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WL SLOWLY WEAKEN TNT AND
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITIES WL
PRODUCE RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY (LA SALLE AND WEBB COUNTIES) THIS AFTN. BORDERLINE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BRUSH
COUNTRY THIS AFTN. THERE MAY BE AN HOUR OR TWO ACROSS THESE
COUNTIES WHERE RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXIST.  IT WL NOT LAST FOR MORE
THAN TWO HOURS SINCE THE WINDS WL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE
HUMIDITIES FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  42  68  50  73  /  60   0   0   0  10
VICTORIA          70  37  66  45  71  /  70   0   0   0  10
LAREDO            77  45  76  54  82  /  30   0   0   0  10
ALICE             74  39  71  48  78  /  50   0   0   0  10
ROCKPORT          71  45  65  53  70  /  70   0   0   0  10
COTULLA           73  36  74  46  80  /  20   0   0   0  10
KINGSVILLE        74  40  70  49  76  /  60   0   0   0  10
NAVY CORPUS       72  48  66  55  70  /  60   0   0   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LA SALLE...WEBB.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM
     BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT
     ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN
     BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

MB/80...SHORT TERM
CB/85...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
553 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2011

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-051200-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
553 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CST THIS
MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN BAYS AND NORTHERN NEARSHORE WATERS.
ADDITIONAL FOG ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT. IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME
WHETHER DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG IT MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
BRUSH COUNTRY AND COASTAL PLAINS. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG.
STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
THREAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER LAND. THE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO LEAD
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT OVER
THE WATERS.

A SECOND AND STRONG FRONT IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL ALLOW WINDS OVER THE WATERS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A HIGH FIRE THREAT AND RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE AFTER THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

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