Red Flag Warning 25, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
434 AM CDT WED OCT 19 2011

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ACROSS WRN TEXAS WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL
BE MUCH WEAKER TODAY...BUT MOMENTUM TRANSPORT ON BUFKIT INDICATES
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 TO 25 MPH (HIGHEST EAST) WILL OCCUR DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON DURING PEAK MIXING. SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL BE CLOSER TO 10 TO 15 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
INTO THE SE US THROUGH THU WITH WINDS TURNING SSE. MOISTURE
RETURN WILL NOT BE IMMEDIATE...ESP GIVEN SW H85 FLOW AND THE DRY
AIRMASS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THU. THIS WILL LEAD TO EVEN COOLER
TEMPS TONIGHT WITH LOTS OF 40S AS WINDS GO LIGHT (EXCEPT
IMMEDIATE COAST AND LRD AREA) AND LARGE DIURNAL RANGES WITH HIGHS
REBOUNDING INTO THE 80S MOST AREAS ON THU AS THE WINDS TURN
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE COMBINATION OF LOW RH VALUES IN THE TEENS AND
STILL SOMEWHAT GUSTY NW WINDS WILL PROVIDE AN ELEVATED WILD FIRE
DANGER TODAY. SOME WEATHER MODELS INDICATE WIND GUSTS WILL REACH
25 MPH FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE PERIOD OF LOWEST RH
VALUES...HOWEVER SINCE FUEL DRYNESS MAPS NOW INDICATE NORMAL
FUEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS WHERE THE HIGHER GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED (AND EVEN ABOVE NORMAL IN SMALL AREA OF THE NRN COASTAL
BEND) HAVE REFRAINED FROM ISSUING A MARGINAL RED FLAG WARNING FOR
TODAY. WILL HOWEVER ISSUE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS AND DRIER FUELS IN THE WRN AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...THE PTAT CMAN IS SHOWING ONLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WINDS BUT
SITE JUST OFFSHORE AND MODEL PROGS INDICATE MOST OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS ARE STILL WELL INTO SCA RANGES AND WILL THEREFORE KEEP THE
SCA THROUGH 18Z FOR THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS. WILL
LIKELY NEED TO EXTEND THE OFFSHORE ZONES A BIT LATER INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS WINDS WEAKEN FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEAK OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES MORE INTO S TX.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN FROM START OF PERIOD
THROUGH WEEKEND ACROSS PRIMARILY EASTERN HALF OF CWA. S/W TROUGH TO
SLIDE THROUGH THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND TO SKIRT OUR AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEPTH PROG TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND AND WHEN COMBINED WITH DECENT
OMEGA VALUES ISO SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS PRIMARILY NE
ZONES. HAVE MAINTAINED INHERITED 20 POPS FOR THE WEEKEND. HEIGHT
RISES THEN PROG TO OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF NEXT DEVELOPING
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH ACROSS W CONUS WITH MAX TEMPS ACROSS S TX WARMING
AS A RESULT. GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY AT END OF EXTENDED
PERIOD REGARDING STRENGTH/POSITIONING OF NEXT COLD FRONT AND TROUGH.
GFS IS THE FASTEST OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE OUTPUT BRINGING A STRONG
COLD FRONT THROUGH S TX ON TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE ECMWF IS
SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH PROGRESSION OF FRONT. HAVE LEANED
PARTIALLY TOWARDS SLOWER ECMWF DUE TO UPPER TROUGH OVER AK ALEUTIANS
PROG TO DEEPEN EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD TYPICALLY RESULT IN A
SLOWER AMPLIFICATION OF SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THUS
OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS FROPA INTO S TX...BUT ABOUT 24 HRS LATER
THAN 00Z GFS. GIVEN SLOWER FRONTAL PROGRESSION TEMPS ON DAYS 7/8
HAVE BEEN INCREASED BY SEVERAL DEGREES WHICH WILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. THANKS TO HGX FOR COORDINATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  47  82  63  86  /   0   0   0   0  10
VICTORIA          74  44  78  57  84  /   0   0   0  10  10
LAREDO            82  57  87  65  90  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             79  48  84  59  88  /   0   0   0   0  10
ROCKPORT          76  51  79  71  83  /   0   0   0  10  10
COTULLA           78  45  85  58  89  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        79  44  84  63  88  /   0   0   0   0  10
NAVY CORPUS       77  57  80  69  86  /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

MJG...SHORT TERM
RH...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
458 AM CDT WED OCT 19 2011

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-200000-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
458 AM CDT WED OCT 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PROVIDE AN ELEVATED
WILD FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT
RECOMMENDED.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON TODAY ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS FROM THE BARRIER ISLANDS OUT TO 20 MILES OFFSHORE
AND THROUGH 4 PM FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS BETWEEN 20 AND 60 NM
OFFSHORE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.