Freeze Warning 3, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1135 AM CST FRI JAN 21 2011

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW OVERCAST DECK LOCATED OVER
WESTERN GULF THIS MORNING WILL MIX OUT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
WHILE GRAZING CRP TERMINAL. EXPECTING NOTHING MORE THAN FEW025 AT
CRP THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THROUGH
FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS BECOME NORTH OVERNIGHT
REMAINING LIGHT THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM CST FRI JAN 21 2011/

DISCUSSION...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO SKY COVER FORECAST FOR
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY FOR MARINE AREAS AND
IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS. EXPECTING CURRENT LOW OVERCAST CLOUD
COVER OVER WESTERN GULF TO SLOWLY MIX OUT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
AS DRIER AIR AT H9 ADVECTS SOUTH. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS
TIME. PRELIM LOOK AT 12Z GUIDANCE INDICATES POSSIBILITY OF NEW
FREEZE WARNINGS BECOMING NECESSARY LATER FOR LOW TEMPS TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO ANALYZE WITH COMPLETE UPDATE COMING WITH
REGULAR AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM CST FRI JAN 21 2011/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION AND MARINE.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS THRU THE TAF PERIOD WITH CLR SKIES. N WNDS
WL CONT TO DIMINISH BELOW 12 KTS ALONG THE COAST THRU THE MRNG.
WNDS WL VEER NE AND E ACROSS THE RGN THIS AFTN (E AND SE OUT NEAR
LRD/COT)...THEN BACK TO THE NW AT LESS THAN 5 KTS LATE TNGT.

MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA ACROSS THE NEARSHORE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF WATERS. ALLOWED
SCA TO EXPIRE FOR THESE ZONES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MORNING...AND SCA SHOULD EXPIRE
SHORTLY BEFORE NOON FOR THIS AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CST FRI JAN 21 2011/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...COLD MORNING ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. WILL MAINTAIN FREEZE WARNING THROUGH 9 AM
FOR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG THE COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION...AND WILL TURN EAST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
HIGHS WON'T GET OUT OF THE 50S ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND AND BRUSH
COUNTRY...WITH EVEN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE. ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS COULD SEE SOME LOWER 60S
OUT NEAR LAREDO. A VERY WEAK RE-ENFORCING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR VERY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO TURN NORTHWEST BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND...PRODUCING COOLER MORNING LOWS SATURDAY
MORNING THAN THIS MORNING ACROSS THIS REGION. AS A RESULT...MAY
NEED A FREEZE WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND SATURDAY
MORNING. WILL LET DAY SHIFT BETTER ASSESS THIS. THE HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK SOUTHEAST FLOW
RESUMING.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...CONFIDENCE IN RAIN
FOR SUNDAY (AND FOR ANY PART OF THE EXTENDED) IS STARTING TO WANE
SOME...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR
SUNDAY THEN KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...MOISTURE FIELDS ARE SHOWING LESS RETURN
FLOW THAN SEEN A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO...WITH ISENTROPIC PATTERN MAINLY
NEAR THE COAST AND ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE BUT OCCURRING MORE INTO THE
LATE SUNDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. BEST MOISTURE MOVES EAST
BY THE TIME FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY
EVENING (MODELS STILL DISAGREE). WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONT. WITH RESPECT TO THE
FRONT...GFS MAY BE A BIT TOO FAST SO DID SLOW FRONT DOWN JUST A BIT
BUT DO HAVE IT ESSENTIALLY GOING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. BEHIND THE
FRONT...DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS APPROACHING
THE FREEZING MARK NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS
STILL HAVE ISSUES ON WHETHER TO CUT OFF THE UPPER TROUGH MID WEEK
AND HOW TO HANDLE THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. PREVIOUS ECMWF
WAS MUCH WETTER BY MID WEEK WITH CUT OFF LOW OUT WEST. MODEL IS MUCH
DRIER NOW WITH MOISTURE REMAINING TO THE SOUTH AND CUT OFF LOW
COMING FROM THE PACIFIC AS OPPOSED TO MOVING AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
SOUTH AND CUTTING IN OFF CLOSER TO TEXAS AND/OR COMBINING IT WITH
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IN PACIFIC. THUS...WILL GO WITH THE CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SCENARIO WITH DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW PATTERN
FROM TIME TO TIME BRINGING CLOUDS BUT NO RAIN...AS SURFACE FLOW WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN NORTHERLY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTH TEXAS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...CRITICAL MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
OCCUR TODAY AND SATURDAY...WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO 20-30%
INLAND AND 30-40% ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER...WINDS SPEED WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    51  31  61  45  65  /   0   0   0  10  30
VICTORIA          51  28  61  38  63  /   0   0   0  10  30
LAREDO            62  36  66  48  70  /   0   0   0  10  10
ALICE             54  31  62  41  67  /   0   0   0  10  20
ROCKPORT          49  34  58  47  65  /   0   0   0  10  30
COTULLA           58  30  65  39  69  /   0   0   0  10  10
KINGSVILLE        53  29  62  41  67  /   0   0   0  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       49  38  58  50  64  /   0   0   0  10  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

AVIATION...HART/79

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1138 AM CST FRI JAN 21 2011

TXZ229>234-239>247-221200-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
1138 AM CST FRI JAN 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND RIO GRANDE. FREEZE WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED
LATER TODAY. NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-221200-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
1138 AM CST FRI JAN 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...THEN ON
TUESDAY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GETS
RE-ENFORCED OVER TEXAS. NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

JR/GW/RH