Special Marine Warning 85, NWS Cleveland, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
610 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN THE WEST.
PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS THAT IT IS MARGINAL
AS STORMS SO FAR HAVE BEEN BEHAVING THEMSELVES.

WILL CONTINUE WITH WATCH WHERE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT TO TIME THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST INTO THE REGION.

LINE APPEARS TO BE BROKEN IN AREAL COVERAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME LOCATIONS MAY SQUEAK BETWEEN THE STORMS NOT RECEIVE ONE DROP
OF RAIN. FOR THE MOST PART...WILL HOLD ON TO THE LIKELY
PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ONCE THE COLD FRONT GOES BY...PRETTY MUCH FAIR WEATHER WILL BE THE
RULE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...AS COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES IN OVER
THE WARM LAKE...GOOD OLD LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST. I WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GOING WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE EAST.

WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THIS SHOULD
BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION THREAT. FAIR WEATHER RETURNS FOR
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY TAKES CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER OVER THE REGION.

THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE A REFRESHING RELIEF FOR THOSE THAT
DO NOT LIKE HOT WEATHER. LOWER DEW POINTS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE 50S IN SOME LOCATIONS AS THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN CHANGES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. LOOKING AT
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECAST MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST INTO SUNDAY EVENING/SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THOUGH TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT NOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST HEADED TOWARDS
PENNSYLVANIA...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS THIS AFTN
AS A SECOND FRONT APPROACHES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
I WILL PROBABLY MENTION VCTS AT A COUPLE OF SITES FOR THIS
AFTN.

MOST OF THE MVFR CONDITIONS SLOWLY RISING TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTN. FOR TONIGHT LOOK FOR A THREAT FOR LAKE ENHANCED SHRA WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR NE OHIO AND NW PA.

WINDS BECOMING WEST THIS AFTN AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON-VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO THU FOR
SNOWBELT AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT AHEAD OF
SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN.  SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT AS WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT.  CONDITIONS PRIMED FOR
WATERSPOUTS ON WEDNESDAY.  THE 850 TEMPS DIP TO 11C BY 18Z WEDNESDAY
FOR A LAKE TO 850MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL OF AROUND 14C.  THIS
COMBINED WITH A  STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT WILL SWING
ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE WEDNESDAY MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY BUT CHOPPY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE.   HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BUT MODELS MOVE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  RIGHT NOW GOING WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES...BUT A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS DEFINITELY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ144>149.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...DJB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
348 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011

OHZ003-006>009-017>019-027>029-036-037-102000-
LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-WYANDOT-
CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-MARION-MORROW-
348 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 753 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AND
NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND
PRODUCE DAMAGING HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

LEZ061-145>149-165>169-OHZ010>014-020>023-030>033-038-047-089-
PAZ001>003-102000-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-
WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-
CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-
LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-ASHLAND-
WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-HOLMES-KNOX-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-
SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
348 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

LEZ142>144-162>164-102000-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
348 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 753 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

LOMBARDY