Special Marine Warning 13, NWS Cleveland, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
301 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REST OF THE REGION
EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN OVERNIGHT
BEFORE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES TOWARDS THE REGION. RAIN
WILL ONCE AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR LATE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK COLD FRONT ALREADY HALFWAY THROUGH THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
MARCHING EAST THIS EVENING. LIGHT RAINFALL HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LINE...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LVL TROF WILL MOVE IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE
LOW MOVES EAST. SOME ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
CONVECTION...THOUGH DYNAMICS LOOK WEAK FOR ORGANIZED STRONG
STORMS. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CLOUDS AS THIS SYSTEM
PUSHES EAST AND BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES. THE RETURNING
CLOUDS FROM THE W WILL KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER TONIGHT THAN
EASTERN PORTIONS. OVERALL LOOKING AT TEMPS IN THE MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LEANED TOWARDS THE FASTER GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE SHORT TERM
WHICH SHOWS A WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...RETURNING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY WEAK AROUND
200-300 CAPE...AND ONCE AGAIN SHEAR AND UPPER LVL DYNAMICS DON'T
SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. RAINFALL RATES AND AMOUNTS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT EITHER AS SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE W
WILL BE LOW ON MOISTURE. A RIDGE TO OUR E WILL HOLD BACK THE TSRA
FROM NW PA AND E OH UNTIL SAT EVENING. BY THIS TIME THE LOW TRACK
WILL BE TO OUR S...PULLING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN OUT OF OUR
AREA. BY SUN A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE N BRINGING A BREAK IN
THE SHOWERS...WITH ADDITIONAL DRYING AND CLEARING INTO MON. WARMER
AIR MOVING IN TOMORROW WILL BUMP TEMPS INTO THE MID 60S...AND WITH
DRYING AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME MORE SUN ON SUNDAY COULD SEE TEMPS
REACH THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL BRING A
SIGNIFICANT WARM UP TO THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 70S
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.  HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS KEEPING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA.  BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HOW A
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT BECOMES QUASI STATIONARY JUST OT THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THIS BOUNDARY MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  AT THIS TIME
THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT WOULD KEEP MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL OCCUR IN THE EAST IT WILL BE MORE SCATTERED.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
NEXT WEEKEND.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A COOL DOWN ALONG WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROUTES THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF
LIGHT SHOWERS HAS FORMED IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT
LITTLE OF THE RAIN IS MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. IN LOCATIONS WERE
LIGHT RAIN OCCURS...VSBYS SHOULD STAY ABOVE VFR. A VERY FINE AREA
OF MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 2KFT WITH THE SHOWERS. AS THIS MOVES EAST
SKIES SHOULD RISE BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT VFR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST....EXPECT SOME GUSTS
TO NEAR 20 KNOTS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR IN RAIN SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF TSRA SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST
FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH INFLUENCES THE FLOW ON THE
LAKE. A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH WEDNESDAY TAKING THE WINDS AROUND TO
THE SOUTH. NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...GARNET
AVIATION...GARNET
MARINE...OUDEMAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
411 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2011

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089-PAZ001>003-070815-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-
ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-LUCAS-WOOD-
OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-
HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-
RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-
ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
411 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.