Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Cleveland, OH

829 
WWUS51 KCLE 181719
SVSCLE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
119 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2011

OHC173-181729-
/O.CAN.KCLE.SV.W.0185.000000T0000Z-110718T1745Z/
WOOD OH-
119 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN WOOD COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 4160 8331 4159 8305 4152 8294 4153 8289
      4158 8287 4160 8283 4155 8278 4154 8272
      4149 8277 4147 8297 4143 8294 4145 8289
      4144 8284 4126 8284 4126 8330 4137 8342
      4147 8342
TIME...MOT...LOC 1719Z 294DEG 13KT 4153 8329

$$

OHC123-143-181745-
/O.CON.KCLE.SV.W.0185.000000T0000Z-110718T1745Z/
OTTAWA OH-SANDUSKY OH-
119 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 PM EDT
FOR SANDUSKY AND OTTAWA COUNTIES...

AT 118 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GENOA...OR NEAR
ELMORE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...
ELMORE...ROCKY RIDGE...OAK HARBOR AND LINDSEY.

LAT...LON 4160 8331 4159 8305 4152 8294 4153 8289
      4158 8287 4160 8283 4155 8278 4154 8272
      4149 8277 4147 8297 4143 8294 4145 8289
      4144 8284 4126 8284 4126 8330 4137 8342
      4147 8342
TIME...MOT...LOC 1719Z 294DEG 13KT 4153 8329

$$

LOMBARDY

459 
WWUS51 KCLE 181744
SVSCLE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
144 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2011

OHC123-143-181754-
/O.EXP.KCLE.SV.W.0185.000000T0000Z-110718T1745Z/
OTTAWA OH-SANDUSKY OH-
144 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SANDUSKY AND OTTAWA COUNTIES
EXPIRES AT 145 PM EDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED.

LAT...LON 4160 8331 4159 8305 4152 8294 4153 8289
      4158 8287 4160 8283 4155 8278 4154 8272
      4149 8277 4147 8297 4143 8294 4145 8289
      4144 8284 4126 8284 4126 8330 4137 8342
      4147 8342
TIME...MOT...LOC 1744Z 276DEG 28KT 4149 8285

$$

LOMBARDY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1217 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EAST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST EARLY TODAY. TO OUR NORTH A WEAK COLD FRONT
EXTENDED FROM THE DAKOTAS TO QUEBEC. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND
ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL
RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE COME AROUND TO BE MORE REALISTIC WITH
CURRENT CONDITIONS. NOW BOTH HRRR AND RUC GENERALLY SHOW LAKE
SHADOWING EFFECTS WITH LITTLE QPF OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE AND
NEARSHORE AREAS EAST OF THE ISLANDS. EVEN FURTHER ADJUSTED THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

HIGHER EXPECTED DEWPOINTS NOW ALLOW HEAT INDEX TO CREEP AROUND 100
FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON BUT AT THIS LATE TIME SEE NO
REASON TO HOIST AN ADVISORY FOR THE SITUATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PICTURE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NEAR TERM MAKING FOR QUITE HOT
AFTERNOONS THROUGH MID WEEK AND BEYOND. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
COME THIS EVENING AS AN EXTENSION FOR TODAY...AND THEN TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. THE FRONT HEADS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE WOULD EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE THE
LIMIT. TEMPS LOOK A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER TUESDAY THAN TODAY BUT
WEDNESDAY HIGHS SHOULD RETURN BACK TO NEAR 90 OR SO MOST AREAS.
THURSDAY WARMER STILL AND POSSIBLY THE FIRST SOLID HEAT ADVISORY
DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HOT AND HUMID WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.  GIVEN
WITH THE WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED...A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ANY OF THE PERIODS FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.  HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP
COULD COME LATE SATURDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE AREA.
ECMWF A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE TROUGH THAN THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER LAKE ERIE ALL THAT IS LEFT OF LINE OF
TSRA OF LINE OF TSRA OVER NRN MICHIGAN EARLIER. COULD GET A FEW
SPRINKLES...OR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER NEAR ERIE PA EARLY THIS MORNING
BUT LITTLE ELSE.

SPC HAS ALL OF NRN OH/NW PA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS STILL
IN QUESTION AT THIS POINT. THIS AFTERNOON CAPES INCREASE TO
1500-2500 J/KG...BUT STRONG CAP OF 12C AT 10K FT WILL INHIBIT
DEVELOPMENT WITH NO TRIGGER. NAM DEVELOPS TSRA THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE GFS LATER TRENDING ON LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
TEND TO THINK THAT NAM IS A BIT FAST JUDGING BY STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE SO FOR TAFS WENT VCTS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME.

OUTLOOK...VFR EXCEPT THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND REDUCED
VSBY DURING EARLY MORNING FOG/HAZE.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE.  SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN TO
THE SOUTHWEST LATER TODAY.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ON TUESDAY VARIABLE FLOW IS EXPECTED AS A
WEAK LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION...ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
519 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2011

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-190930-
LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-
ASHTABULA INLAND-HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-
WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-
HOLMES-KNOX-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
CRAWFORD PA-
519 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS DETERMINED THAT THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD TURN SEVERE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS
COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS COULD PUSH THE HEAT INDEX
ABOVE 100 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF
NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. AS THE HEAT INDEX CLIMBS
ABOVE 100...THE DANGER OF HEAT RELATED DISORDERS INCREASE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-190930-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-
ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
519 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS DETERMINED THAT THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD TURN SEVERE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.