Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1036 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER OR NEAR THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEK. A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW WEAKENING CONVECTION HAS STEADILY MOVED
NORTH/NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SANTEE RIVER...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING BEHIND THIS LAST AREA OF RAIN. ALTHOUGH A FEW NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN TO DEVELOP
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT...THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE
EVIDENCE OF THIS DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IN
FACT...NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION COULD INDEED FOLLOW BEHIND THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS...SUGGESTING
LIMITED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. WILL THUS INDICATE RAIN CHANCES
TRANSITIONING OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...AND MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS
OVER LAND.

STILL ASSESSING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARD
DAWN...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN OCCURRED EARLIER THIS EVENING. THERE
IS SOME INDICATION OF PATCHY FOG MAINLY IN THE MAV GUIDANCE...WHILE
SREF AND MET GUIDANCE DO NOT SHOW MUCH REDUCED VISIBILITIES. DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AND TIMING...WILL KEEP FOG OUT OF
THE FORECAST FOR NOW AND RE-EVALUATE WITH THE 1 AM EDT UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT GRADUALLY LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INLAND OF THE FORECAST AREA MOST
OF THE DAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE COAST LATE. DEEP
MOISTURE...SHORT WAVE ENERGY PASSING ALOFT WITHIN THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL SUPPORT A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. A CONTINUED WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN WITH UPPER 80S PREDOMINANT ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL START TO TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS CLEARING BEGINS TO DEVELOP AS THE FLOW SHIFTS OFFSHORE.

THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH ON THURSDAY AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AND EVENTUALLY GETS ABSORBED BY ANOTHER
LOW DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A WEAK COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH
THE AREA ON THURSDAY...USHERING IN A DRIER AIR MASS WITHIN A WESTERLY
FLOW. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE
COAST THURSDAY MORNING...BUT OVERALL CLEARING AND RAIN FREE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S...WITH A DOWNSLOPE
FLOW BECOMING MORE OF A FACTOR THAN THE WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
ON FRIDAY...WHILE AT THE SURFACE A REINFORCING COLD FRONT APPEARS TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL KEEP RAIN FREE
CONDITIONS IN PLACE ON FRIDAY. A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL BUT SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW RATHER STRONG DYNAMICS ON SATURDAY...AS THE
ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE EAST COAST. COLD AND DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MAKE A STRONGER PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION...INITIATING ROBUST COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
AND SOUTHEAST STATES. WHETHER THIS DEVELOPMENT COULD BE CONSIDERED
ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL UNCERTAIN...HOWEVER THE MOST
CONSIDERABLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE SUPPRESSED IN THE 70S WITHIN
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW AND UNDER ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. BELOW NORMAL LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
THE COMBINED RESULT OF COLD ADVECTION AND DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING NOCTURNAL WINDS.

COLD ADVECTION WILL DIMINISH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY...WHILE STILL REMAINING A
DEGREE OR TWO BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. RAIN FREE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL INDICATE VSBYS NO LOWER THAN 6SM BR WITH THE 00Z TAF
ISSUANCE AT KCHS...CONSIDERING THAT THERE WERE NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY MORNING DESPITE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY REPORTED. OTHERWISE WILL KEEP CIGS AND VSBY
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...BUT PREFER TO JUST MENTION CB IN THE
AFTERNOON AT THIS POINT.

KSAV HAS BEEN SPARED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...AND THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD APPEARS TO BE QUIET. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY VSBY
RESTRICTIONS...SINCE THE TERMINAL DID NOT RECEIVE RAIN TODAY AND
DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING LESS THAN 24 HOURS AGO. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL RETURN AGAIN TOMORROW AND WILL INITIATE CB IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AND LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE WATERS WILL FAVOR SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS HAVE DECREASED OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS OR SO...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A SWELL COMPONENT AROUND 3 FT
AND 11 SECONDS BEYOND 20 NM. SWELL WILL BE PERSISTENT THROUGHOUT
THE OVERNIGHT BUT WILL BE ON THE DECREASING TREND BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY...THEN VEER TO THE
WEST ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS INTO THE REGION. MODERATE
WEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY...UNTIL A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT INITIATES STRONG COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. ONCE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PUSHES THE COLDER AIR MASS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST AND SURGE DOWN THE COAST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING THIS PERIOD FOR BOTH
WINDS AND SEAS.

RIP CURRENTS...A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL BE MAINTAINED
FOR ALL BEACHES WEDNESDAY DUE TO ONGOING TIDAL AND LUNAR INFLUENCES
AS WELL AS A PERSISTENT 3 FT/9-11 SECOND SWELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...AND
AIDED BY OCCASIONAL INCREASES IN ONSHORE WINDS AND A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN NORMAL SURF...SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
406 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2011

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>116-118-137-138-140-
SCZ040-042>045-047-052-281000-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-LONG-INLAND LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-INLAND BERKELEY-
INLAND JASPER-TIDAL BERKELEY-
406 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GAZ117-119-139-141-SCZ048>051-281000-
COASTAL BRYAN-COASTAL CHATHAM-COASTAL LIBERTY-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
406 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2011

...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.

COASTAL FLOODING...ELEVATED TIDES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK
ACROSS NORTH COASTAL GEORGIA AND SOUTH COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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