Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
355 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MID WEEK...BEFORE A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL PUSH
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH SUNSET. DCAPES
GENERALLY WEST OF I-95 ARE STILL AROUND 1000 J/KG SO A FEW STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS. OTHERWISE...THE APPROACH
OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST COULD HELP KEEP A FEW SHOWERS GOING
OVERNIGHT...BUT MOST SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MORE UNSTABLE
COASTAL WATERS. FOG IS A POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAINFALL
OCCURS TODAY...BUT WINDS OFF THE SURFACE LOOK A BIT TOO STRONG TO
PREVENT WIDESPREAD/THICK FOG. LOWS MAINLY AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE DEEP AND STAGNANT CUT OFF LOW OVER
UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE LITTLE...BLOCKED BY A STRONG AND WELL
AMPLIFIED RIDGE ALOFT FROM EASTERN CANADA INTO THE NW ATLANTIC. THIS
KEEPS A DEEP WEST TO SW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVES TO MOVE THROUGH FROM TIME TO TIME. AT THE
SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER OR NEAR
THE FORECAST ARE...WHILE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
IS FOUND NEAR OR JUST OFF OUR COASTLINE.

TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES CAN BE A CHALLENGE...BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE
ONE DURING TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER TO MOVE THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH VARIOUS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
WILL ALLOW FOR POPS AS HIGH AS 30-40 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
DRY AIR ALOFT ON TUESDAY...THE DCAPES ARE NO MORE THAN ABOUT 800
J/KG. AND MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST DEEPER MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY. SO
WE FEEL THAT THE RISK OF STRONG OR SEVERE WEATHER IS QUITE LOW.
INSTEAD IT LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN
PWATS NEAR OR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS AND STORM MOTION THAT IS NO
MORE THAN 10-12 KT.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH 850 MB TEMPS STILL
AS HIGH AS 16 OR 17C. THE 1000-850 MB FORECAST SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 90S...BUT GIVEN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...THE
SCATTERED POPS TO LIMIT INSOLATION WE WILL MAX READINGS NO MORE THAN
THE UPPER 80S OR NEAR 90.

THURSDAY...A PIECE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE ALOFT NEAR
THE CANADIAN NW WILL FINALLY ACT AS THE KICKER TO FORCE THE CUT OFF
LOW EAST AND NE. THIS FEATURE WILL SIGNAL THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
COOLER AIR MASS THAT WILL EVENTUALLY GET HERE LATE IN THE WEEK.

THE FLOW ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW WEAKENING/LIFTING OUT WILL BE
FROM A DRIER WEST TO NW DIRECTION. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME WEAK
TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF SE SC/SE GA...TIME-CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE
THAT THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THERE CERTAINLY COULD
BE A FEW SHOWERS OR T-STORMS DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT AND
THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...BUT PROBABILITIES WILL BE LIMITED TO NO
MORE THAN 14 PERCENT.

THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND WHAT LOOKS TO BE A GREATER AMOUNT OF
INSOLATION WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS AT LEAST IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY...GRADUALLY TRACKING OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THIS
TIME...WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION INITIATING BY LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
RESULT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED IN THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS INLAND AREAS SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.

ALONG WITH THE MORE FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES...DRIER AIR AND RAIN
FREE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER BROAD HIGH PRESSURE DURING THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR THROUGH AROUND SUNSET OUTSIDE SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
WHICH WILL LIKELY REQUIRE AMENDMENTS. FOG/STRATUS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE NOT HITTING CONDITIONS TOO HARD.
WINDS OFF THE SURFACE LOOK A BIT TOO STRONG FOR WIDESPREAD/THICK
FOG BUT CIGS ARE MORE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV WHERE RAINFALL
OCCURRED EARLIER TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH MID WEEK DUE TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AND LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG/STRATUS. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL
DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS MAINLY 15 KT OR LESS AS THE COASTAL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE AREA WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT FROM THE WEST. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS
AND 4-6 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. THUS...THE ADVISORY WILL REMAIN UP FOR
THE GA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE A TROUGH IS
FOUND INLAND OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA. SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL
ALLOW FOR WINDS AS HIGH AS 10-12 KT EACH AFTERNOON...WHILE NOCTURNAL
SURGES COULD PUSH WINDS UP NEAR 15 KT FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT NIGHT.

MOST OF THE WAVE ENERGY WILL BE MADE UP OF 11-13 SECOND SWELLS
TUESDAY...AND COMBINED WITH SMALLER WIND WAVES WE STILL SEE SOME 6
FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. THUS A CONTINUATION OF THE SCA
FOR AMZ374. ELSEWHERE THE COMBINED SEAS WILL BE HELD TO NO MORE THAN
4 OR 5 FT. SEAS WILL THEN BE MADE UP OF A MIXTURE OF LINGERING
SWELLS WITH 8-10 SECOND PERIODS ALONG WITH SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN
WAVES THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT HELD TO NO
MORE THAN 3-5 FT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL STEADILY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
WEEK. EXPECT THE MAIN WIND SHIFT TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY...AS WINDS VEER
WITH THE COLD FRONT SLIPPING TOWARD THE COASTLINE. EXPECT A DECENT
NORTH/NORTHEAST SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITHIN ROBUST COLD ADVECTION. SCA/S ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

RIP CURRENTS...WE ARE LOOKING AT A HIGH-END MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES TUESDAY...GIVEN SOME 2-3 FOOT LONG PERIOD
SWELLS AVERAGING AROUND 11-13 SECONDS. DUE TO THE NEW MOON AND
PERIGEE IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY NEED TO RAISE TO A HIGH
RISK WITH THE TUESDAY MORNING FORECAST.

THE RISK WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK WITH
LINGERING SWELL AND ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...AND
AIDED BY OCCASIONAL INCREASES IN ONSHORE WINDS AND A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN NORMAL SURF WE CERTAINLY COULD EXPERIENCE SOME SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SC COAST.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
314 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2011

GAZ140-141-262000-
COASTAL MCINTOSH-INLAND MCINTOSH-
314 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF MCINTOSH COUNTY
THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

AT 310 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF SAPELO ISLAND TO COX...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
BLACKBEARD ISLAND...CARNIGAN...COX...CRESCENT...DARIEN...EULONIA...
MERIDIAN...PINE HARBOR...RIDGEVILLE...SAPELO ISLAND...TOWNSEND...
VALONA AND WOLF ISLAND...

PREPARE NOW FOR THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
TORRENTIAL RAIN WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS THUNDERSTORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN...WHICH MAY
FLOOD DITCHES AND LOW-LYING AREAS. REDUCE VEHICLE SPEED TO LOWER THE
RISK OF HYDROPLANING. DO NOT DRIVE INTO PLACES WHERE WATER COVERS THE
ROAD. SEEK AN ALTERNATE ROUTE.

BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS STORMS APPROACH.
BE READY TO TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION IN CASE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3133 8144 3135 8151 3140 8158 3145 8162
      3147 8162 3149 8165 3150 8165 3160 8148
      3151 8118 3140 8125 3137 8124 3137 8127
      3131 8125 3129 8129 3131 8139 3129 8141
TIME...MOT...LOC 1914Z 263DEG 7KT 3138 8115 3142 8157

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
401 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2011

GAZ114-137-262030-
LONG-TATTNALL-
401 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF TATTNALL AND LONG
COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM EDT...

AT 359 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...NEAR DONALD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
DONALD...GLENNVILLE AND MENDES...

PREPARE NOW FOR THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS THUNDERSTORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN...WHICH MAY
FLOOD DITCHES AND LOW-LYING AREAS. REDUCE VEHICLE SPEED TO LOWER THE
RISK OF HYDROPLANING. DO NOT DRIVE INTO PLACES WHERE WATER COVERS THE
ROAD. SEEK AN ALTERNATE ROUTE.

BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS STORMS APPROACH.
BE READY TO TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION IN CASE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3205 8193 3182 8171 3172 8190 3175 8192
      3175 8193 3178 8196 3178 8198 3181 8202
      3184 8208 3186 8212 3188 8211 3188 8213
      3190 8214
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 231DEG 17KT 3181 8190

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