Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
705 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST AT THE SURFACE MUCH OF THE
WEEK WHILE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
KCLX RADAR SHOWS NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS MOVING INTO INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE HAS YET TO BE OVERTURNED.
MEANWHILE...TWO CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF
COLLETON...CHARLESTON AND DORCHESTER COUNTIES AS WELL AS BRYAN AND
LIBERTY COUNTIES. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO TAKE CURRENT SHORT TERM
TRENDS INTO ACCOUNT SHOWING THE HIGHEST POPS SLOWLY TRANSITIONING
INTO INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A SECONDARY AREA OF SHOWER/TSTMS COULD
IMPACT AREAS FROM CHARLESTON DOWN TO SAVANNAH LATER TONIGHT AS YET
ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH A BROAD LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. AND A STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. BY EARLY TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE
SPREADS BACK EASTWARD AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE VERY HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.

FOR MONDAY....MODELS SEEMED TO HAVE TRENDED A TAD DRIER AS FAR AS
POPS GO. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF NW UPPER FLOW AND A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA...HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS...WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA IN GA. DID TRIM POPS BACK A
BIT OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES TO HEDGE TOWARD DRIER MODEL
TRENDS...WHICH ARE TRYING TO PUSH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD
ALONG WITH THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED POPS AND CLOUDS...HAVE NUDGED MAX TEMPS UP
A DEG OR TWO. SURFACE TDS ARE VERY TOUGH TO FIGURE...AND WILL GOVERN
WHETHER CONDITIONS REACH HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN. CURRENT GRIDS
INDICATE MAX HEAT INDICES OF 105-109...BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN POP
AND TD FORECAST...WILL NOT ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR MONDAY YET.

TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK FROM THE WEST...DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE DECREASES ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE
BEST MOISTURE WILL LIKELY SIT OVER THE EXTREME SE PORTION OF THE
AREA. THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THAT AREA.
LATEST GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S...AND EVEN COULD HIT 100 WELL INLAND. THESE VERY HOT TEMPS
COMBINED WITH EVEN CLIMO TYPE SURFACE TDYS...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS BE REACHED.

WEDNESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM TUESDAY AS THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE
HOLDS JUST WEST OF THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN THE BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA. HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW IN THAT REGION. HEAT
INDICES EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN...AND MAY EVEN TOUCH
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA IN SOME SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AND THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP RAIN
CHANCES LOW THROUGH THURSDAY. BEYOND THAT THE FORECAST BECOMES A
BIT MORE UNCERTAIN AS MUCH DEPENDS ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF A LIKELY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WHICH THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE SHOWING
MOVING NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS FRIDAY. FOR NOW HAVE
GENERALLY MAINTAINED A FORECAST PRETTY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH TEMPS IN THE 90S AND RAIN CHANCES NO HIGHER THAN
30 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KCHS...LARGE TSTM CLUSTER TO THE WEST OF THE TERMINAL LOOKS TO
PASS SOUTHWEST THROUGH 02Z. MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR
TSRA PENDING LAST MINUTE RADAR TRENDS. OTHERWISE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. WILL MAINTAIN CB/S FOR NOW.

KSAV...TSTMS PASSING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINAL ATTM AND
ANOTHER DIRECT STRIKE FROM THIS APPEARS UNLIKELY. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL LATER
THIS EVENING SO WILL CARRY A TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA FROM 03-05Z TO
COVER FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR KSAV...COULD RESULT
IN BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... POSSIBLY INCREASING TO
SCATTERED BY FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME WILL DOMINATE TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2-4
FT. COULD STILL SEE A FEW STRONG TSTMS WHICH MAY REQUIRE SPECIAL
MARINE WARNINGS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE REGION WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BETWEEN BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE EAST
OF THE REGION AND A TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINA
UPSTATE. THIS WILL PRODUCE A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW
PATTERN...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN 15 KTS OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT
OR LESS. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS EACH
AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL WAVE...
CURRENTLY WELL EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.  IF THIS WAVE WERE TO
STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM AND TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST THIS
WEEK...THEN THE LONGER PERIOD SWELL GENERATED FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD
BEGIN TO REACH THE WATERS BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
634 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011

GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-042>045-047>052-012245-
JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-
INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-INLAND BERKELEY-
INLAND JASPER-BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
TIDAL BERKELEY-
634 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA TODAY. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL
BE A RISK FOR FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AS WELL AS
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

PEOPLE ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO ALL HAZARDS...TV OR YOUR LOCAL NEWS SOURCE FOR LATER
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXCESSIVE HEAT...HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY COULD COMBINE TO
PRODUCE HEAT INDICES GENERALLY IN THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-012245-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
634 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTH COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA
AND NORTH COASTAL GEORGIA TODAY. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN
HEAVY RAIN. MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN ALERT THROUGH THE DAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011

GAZ087-088-099-100-010100-
BULLOCH-CANDLER-JENKINS-SCREVEN-
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SCREVEN...JENKINS...
BULLOCH AND CANDLER COUNTIES THROUGH 900 PM EDT...

AT 758 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...NEAR MIDDLEGROUND...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
BROOKLET...DENMARK...DOVER...GEORGIA SOUTHERN...HOPEULIKIT...
LEEFIELD...METTER...MIDDLEGROUND...PORTAL...PULASKI...REGISTER...
ROCKY FORD...STATESBORO...STILSON AND WESTSIDE...

PREPARE NOW FOR THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...
PENNY SIZE HAIL...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM. IF
OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM ISOLATED TALL OBJECTS. IF INDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS. AVOID USING PLUMBING AND ELECTRICAL
APPLIANCES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY.

HAVE AN ACTION PLAN READY IN THE EVENT THIS STORM STRENGTHENS OR A
WARNING IS ISSUED. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS
FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3253 8214 3256 8209 3255 8203 3261 8201
      3265 8207 3265 8206 3270 8172 3235 8151
      3225 8167 3231 8212
TIME...MOT...LOC 0000Z 334DEG 9KT 3255 8184

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
812 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0614 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S RUFFIN              32.96N  80.82W
07/31/2011                   COLLETON           SC   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            SOUTH CAROLINA HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTED ONE TREE DOWN
            NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF DELIVERENCE ROAD AND RED ROOT
            ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1100708

DPB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
818 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011

GAZ101-118-SCZ047-051-010100-
COASTAL JASPER-EFFINGHAM-INLAND CHATHAM-INLAND JASPER-
818 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF EFFINGHAM...JASPER
AND CHATHAM COUNTIES THROUGH 900 PM EDT...

AT 817 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...NEAR LEVY...MOVING SOUTH AT 30 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
EBENEZER...MARLOW...MEINHARD...MONTEITH...PINEORA...RINCON...
SPRINGFIELD...STILLWELL...BELLINGER HILL AREA...HARDEEVILLE...JASPER
AND PURYSBURGH...

PREPARE NOW FOR THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...
STRONG WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON TOLL FREE AT
1-888-383-2024 IF YOU OBSERVE SEVERE WEATHER SUCH AS HAIL...DOWNED
TREES...LIMBS AND POWER LINES. REPORTS CAN ALSO BE SENT BY EMAIL TO
CHS.SKYWARN@NOAA.GOV OR THROUGH TWITTER USING #WXREPORT.

&&

LAT...LON 3242 8130 3241 8083 3234 8088 3235 8093
      3230 8094 3230 8101 3227 8099 3225 8102
      3221 8101 3217 8095 3215 8097 3213 8096
      3213 8091 3212 8093 3211 8090 3209 8096
      3227 8144
TIME...MOT...LOC 0019Z 348DEG 26KT 3221 8096

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