Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
332 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEK. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT COULD ADVANCE INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
AND STALL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...THEN LIKELY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN HAZARD. WILL
NEED TO KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
MUCH OF THE NIGHT HOWEVER GIVEN THE CONTINUATION OF DEEP MOISTURE
AND GENERAL ASCENT TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

SMOKE...AN 800-900 ACRE WILDFIRE NORTH OF WALTHOURVILLE IN
LIBERTY COUNTY AS WELL AS WELL AS THE NEARLY 300000 ACRE WILDFIRE
IN THE OKEFENOKEE SWAMP CONTINUE TO BURN. HAVE SEEN VISIBILITIES
IMPROVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO IMPROVED VERTICAL MIXING AND
DISPERSION. HOWEVER...SMOKE COULD RETURN THIS EVENING AS WINDS
BECOME ONSHORE AGAIN WITH THE SEA BREEZE. A MORE STABLE MARINE
ENVIRONMENT BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST ALONG WITH NORMAL
NIGHTTIME STABILIZATION COULD YIELD TO LOWERING VISIBILITIES
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA CLOSER TO THE
FIRES. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT...ALTHOUGH DENSE SMOKE ADVISORIES COULD NOT BE RULED OUT
IF VISIBILITIES OF ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS OCCUR OR BECOME
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEEP LAYER ATLANTIC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM /500 MB TEMPS WARMER THAN
-6C/ DURING THIS TIME BUT LOW-LEVEL THETA-E WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY. SOME DRY AIR ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

THE ONLY POTENTIAL CAVEAT IS A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE BAHAMAS THAT
COULD MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST THU-FRI. THE GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON
THIS SYSTEM BUT AT A MINIMUM WE COULD SEE SOME UPPER VORTICITY
MOVING UP THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. UNTIL THERE IS MORE MODEL
CONTINUITY WE ARE STICKING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYER ATLANTIC RIDGE HOLDS AND EVEN STRENGTHENS A BIT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN A STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BUILDS
AND STRENGTHENS EASTWARD BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS MAKES IT
DIFFICULT TO BELIEVE THAT A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT
VERY FAR SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA BY LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THINK
ANY FRONT THAT MAKES IT DOWN WILL BE WEAK AND LIKELY STALL NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND. MODELS KEEP A WEAK
TROUGH FEATURE/FRONT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY HELP TO BE
A FOCUS FOR HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES. ANOTHER FACTOR THAT COULD PLAY
INTO THE PRECIP FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD IS HOW MUCH IF ANY TROPICAL
MOISTURE REACHES THE AREA. GIVEN THE MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH
SOLUTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE...THE IMPACT FOR ANY
MOISTURE WOULD BE RATHER LOW. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT LOW END CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD...MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE TWO MAIN
FEATURES TO FOCUS CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY BE THE STALLED FRONT
OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION AND THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
FINALLY...KEPT TEMPS NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SMOKE FROM THE GA WILDFIRES WILL LIKELY IMPACT KSAV THROUGH
MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS IS LOW BEYOND THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE KEPT
CONDS VFR AFTER 21Z. ALTHOUGH SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS VERTICAL MIXING INCREASES AND THE BULK OF THE
SMOKE MOVES OFFSHORE...VSBYS COULD DROP AGAIN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF SMOKE GETS PUSHED BACK ONSHORE WITH THE
SEA BREEZE.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL IMPACT AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE
TERMINALS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WITH LIMITED
COVERAGE/CHANCES...WILL STICK WITH CB/S TO COVER FOR NOW INTO
EARLY TONIGHT.

IN WAKE OF THE SEA BREEZE LATE TODAY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT KCHS WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS A LITTLE TIGHTER.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR...PERHAPS INTERRUPTED BY
BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SUB-TROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS. S WINDS WILL SURGE THIS EVENING AND THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
JET BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARD DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. IN ADDITION...MARINERS SHOULD BE ON THE ALERT
FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES CAUSED BY SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES ACROSS
SOUTHERN GEORGIA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE GEORGIA COASTAL
WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
DEEP LAYER ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE ONLY POTENTIAL ISSUE IS A
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE BAHAMAS THAT COULD MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THU-FRI. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE VARYING WIND
DIRECTIONS/SPEEDS THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING. SINCE THE
GUIDANCE IS NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE WE STUCK WITH A
MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED WIND PATTERN WITH MAINLY SOUTHERLY
FETCH WITH THE STANDARD DAILY FLUCTUATIONS WITH THE NOCTURNAL JET
AND AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

RJB/JRL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
427 AM EDT TUE JUL 5 2011

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-
042>045-047>052-060830-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-
INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-INLAND BERKELEY-
INLAND JASPER-BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
TIDAL BERKELEY-
427 AM EDT TUE JUL 5 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

33

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
428 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2011

SCZ043-044-052100-
DORCHESTER-INLAND COLLETON-
428 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF DORCHESTER AND
COLLETON COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM EDT...

AT 427 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM COTTAGEVILLE TO
BLAKE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
CANADYS...COTTAGEVILLE...GIVHANS...GIVHANS FERRY STATE PARK...GREEN
POND...HENDERSONVILLE...RITTER...ROUND O...WALTERBORO AND WHITE
HALL...

PREPARE NOW FOR THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...
DIME SIZE HAIL...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
TORRENTIAL RAIN WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS STORMS APPROACH.
BE READY TO TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION IN CASE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3316 8045 3295 8026 3266 8070 3268 8074
      3267 8075 3268 8078 3269 8079 3289 8092
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 241DEG 5KT 3295 8046 3275 8079

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
433 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2011

GAZ100-101-116-052100-
BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-INLAND BRYAN-
433 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF BULLOCH...EFFINGHAM
AND BRYAN COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM EDT...

AT 431 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...NEAR BLITCHTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
BLITCHTON...EDEN...ELLABELL...GUYTON...MARLOW...MELDRIM...PINEORA AND
SPRINGFIELD...

PREPARE NOW FOR THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...
DIME SIZE HAIL...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
TORRENTIAL RAIN WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS STORMS APPROACH.
BE READY TO TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION IN CASE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3242 8128 3222 8123 3209 8139 3206 8146
      3231 8158
TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 243DEG 3KT 3222 8142

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
459 PM EDT TUE JUL 05 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SE SAINT STEPHEN      33.38N  79.90W
07/05/2011  E60 MPH          BERKELEY           SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATE OF 60 TO 70 MPH WINDS WITH NICKEL SIZE HAIL

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1100627

FWA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
503 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2011

GAZ100-101-116-052145-
BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-INLAND BRYAN-
503 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF BULLOCH...EFFINGHAM
AND BRYAN COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM EDT...

AT 501 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...NEAR MARLOW...NEARLY STATIONARY.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
BLITCHTON...EDEN...GUYTON...MARLOW AND PINEORA...

PREPARE NOW FOR THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...
PENNY SIZE HAIL...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS STORMS APPROACH.
BE READY TO TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION IN CASE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3242 8146 3226 8119 3215 8138 3222 8159
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 163DEG 2KT 3225 8142