Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
316 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND STALL
JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL LINGER BETWEEN A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL STEADILY SHIFT
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES ALOFT THROUGH TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH
LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT VALUES ARE ONLY 1.4 INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON...THE PRESENCE OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND A ROBUST
SEABREEZE HAS ALLOWED ISOLATED CONVECTION TO INITIATE ONCE AGAIN.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY DEVELOP INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WHILE COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE...GIVEN
DCAPES OF 1000-1200 J/KG AND THE DRY AIR ALOFT...A FEW OF THE
LARGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND
EVEN SOME LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY WHERE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
OCCUR.

COVERAGE WILL STEADILY DIMINISH FROM EAST TO WEST...AS THE
SEABREEZE PUSHES INLAND AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WANES. HAVE
DECREASED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT AFTER 8 PM EDT...WITH SCATTERED
CUMULUS DISSIPATING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL SUPPORT DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THE MAIN CONCERN AFTER SUNSET WILL BE THE ONGOING SMOKE ACROSS
CHARLESTON COUNTY AND THE COASTAL WATERS...AS WELL AS FOG POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE ANY RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE SMOKE PLUME FROM FIRES IN NORTH CAROLINA
IS DIFFUSE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...SOME OBSERVATIONS ON THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST ARE DOWN TO 3 MILES AT 3 PM EDT. THE
INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE SEABREEZE WILL PULL MORE STABLE MARINE
AIR INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...WHILE POSSIBLY ADVECTING OFFSHORE SMOKE FARTHER INLAND.
ONCE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SETS UP AFTER SUNSET...LINGERING
SMOKE IS ALSO MORE LIKELY TO BECOME TRAPPED AND SETTLE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE THUS HEIGHTENED SMOKE WORDING IN THE FORECAST
FROM PATCHY TO AREAS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT FOR THE CHARLESTON TRI
COUNTY AREA...BEAUFORT COUNTY...AND MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE THE TYPICAL
AFTERNOON/EVENING VARIETY...LIKELY INCREASING SLIGHTLY EACH DAY AS
DEEPER MOISTURE INCREASES. OVERALL...THE BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE
INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S OVER THE WEEKEND...AND LIKELY JUST MID 90S MONDAY DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY MIXING OUT IN TO
THE 60S DURING PEAK HEATING...HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT WESTWARD
DURING THIS PERIOD AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN
1/3 OF THE COUNTRY. GIVEN LOWER UPPER HEIGHTS...BETTER DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...HAVE TRENDED POPS UP INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY
DURING THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT MAY
STALL JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WHICH COMBINED WITH A
LEE TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL BE
WEAK SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW DECENT INLAND
PENETRATION OF THE SEA BREEZE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH
RIVER.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE MAINTAINED PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD FOR KCHS AND KSAV...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON OF INTERMITTENT MVFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO SMOKE AT KCHS.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR SMOKE TRENDS AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES
INLAND...SINCE ADDITIONAL SMOKE COULD ADVECT ONSHORE BEFORE
SUNSET.

REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT KCHS COULD EASILY PERSIST THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. PATCHY FOG COULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND IMPACT KSAV EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HAVE KEPT BOTH SITES VFR OVERNIGHT FOR NOW...HOWEVER MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT...AS
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SMOKE BECOME TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION. WILL REEVALUATE OVERNIGHT VISIBILITIES AT NEXT TAF
ISSUANCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. AS A RESULT...LIGHT
SURFACE FLOW HAS MAINLY BEEN DRIVEN BY THE INLAND SEABREEZE
PROGRESSION THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS SET UP
TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING. A SMALL EAST TO SOUTHEAST SWELL IS
BECOMING NOTICEABLE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...BUT COMBINED SEAS
WILL BE HELD AT 3 FT OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SATELLITE PICTURES SUGGEST PATCHY SMOKE IS STILL COVERING PORTIONS
OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VISIBILITIES LIKELY
DOWN NEAR 3 NM AT TIMES. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY SMOKE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO AREAS OF SMOKE OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER AND JUST EAST OF THE REGION.
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FEET OR LESS
SHOULD PERSIST. WINDS NEAR THE COAST WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KT
EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE. FOR MONDAY...WINDS MAY SURGE UP
TO 15 TO 20 KT AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND BRIEFLY
STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS IN RESPONSE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
402 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2011

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-
042>045-047>052-020815-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-
INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-INLAND BERKELEY-
INLAND JASPER-BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
TIDAL BERKELEY-
402 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

33

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1149 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2011

GAZ119-SCZ048>052-020000-
COASTAL CHATHAM-BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-
COASTAL JASPER-TIDAL BERKELEY-
1149 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2011

...SMOKE FROM DISTANT WILDFIRES IN NORTH CAROLINA WILL IMPACT
PARTS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...

SMOKE BEING GENERATED FROM WILDFIRES ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WILL
IMPACT PARTS OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COASTAL COUNTIES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS INCLUDES THE COUNTIES OF
CHARLESTON...COLLETON...BEAUFORT...JASPER AND CHATHAM. THIS ALSO
INCLUDES SUCH COMMUNITIES AS MCCLELLANVILLE...ISLE OF
PALMS...KIAWAH ISLAND...EDISTO BEACH...HUNTING ISLAND...HILTON
HEAD ISLAND AND TYBEE ISLAND. VISIBILITIES WILL OCCASIONALLY BE
DOWN TO 3 TO 5 MILES.

IF YOU OBSERVE LOW VISIBILITIES...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AT 1-888-383-2724. YOU CAN ALSO EMAIL YOUR
REPORT TO CHS.SKYWARN@NOAA.GOV OR SEND A TWEET #WXREPORT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
222 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2011

SCZ045-050-011845-
CHARLESTON-INLAND BERKELEY-
222 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CHARLESTON AND
BERKELEY COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM EDT...

AT 220 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...NEAR HAMPTON PLANTATION STATE PARK...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
CAPE ISLAND...HAMPTON PLANTATION STATE PARK AND SANTEE COASTAL
RESERVE...

PREPARE NOW FOR THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...
DIME SIZE HAIL...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
TORRENTIAL RAIN WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HAVE AN ACTION PLAN READY IN THE EVENT THIS STORM STRENGTHENS OR A
WARNING IS ISSUED. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS
FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3308 7933 3305 7933 3304 7934 3321 7971
      3328 7958 3328 7957 3325 7953 3324 7945
      3322 7945 3316 7935 3316 7933 3315 7928
      3311 7927
TIME...MOT...LOC 1822Z 024DEG 9KT 3322 7942

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>