Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
356 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION AND STALL JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE COMBINATION OF A DESCENDING SYNOPTIC SCALE FRONT AND THE
INLAND PROGRESSING SEABREEZE HAS ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INITIATED
GENERALLY NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER BY 3 PM EDT...GENERATING
NUMEROUS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN SOME
LOCATIONS DUE TO A RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTION.

ALTHOUGH SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES COULD CONTINUE TO
INITIATE CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...COVERAGE IS
ONLY EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED DUE TO LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND LACKING STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THERE IS ONLY A VERY
SMALL CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE PULSE
TYPE STORM COULD DEVELOP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IF BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS BECOME MORE ROBUST. WILL CAP RAIN PROBABILITIES BELOW
25 PERCENT THROUGH 8 PM EDT.

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY...AND CONSIDERING LITTLE
SUPPORT FROM UPPER DYNAMICS TONIGHT...WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES BELOW
15 PERCENT AFTER 8 PM EDT. DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL ALSO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...LEAVING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR. ALTHOUGH DIMINISHING WINDS
AND CLEARING SKIES COULD SUPPORT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...GUIDANCE
IS NOT SUGGESTING A STRONG FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. WILL MONITOR
TRENDS DURING THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT ARE
CURRENTLY RECEIVING HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER...DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE AND DURATION AT THIS TIME...WILL NOT INCLUDE FOG IN THE
FORECAST.

OF SOME CONCERN IS A PLUME OF SMOKE CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWARD
FROM FIRES LOCATED IN NORTH CAROLINA. PATCHY SMOKE WILL LIKELY
IMPACT PORTIONS OF CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTIES IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...HOWEVER ONGOING CONVECTION COULD MIX THE ATMOSPHERE
SUFFICIENTLY TO DELAY VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. HAVE ADDED PATCHY
SMOKE TO THE FORECAST FOR EASTERN BERKELEY/NORTHERN CHARLESTON
COUNTIES AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WILL ALLOW SUBSEQUENT FORECAST SHIFTS TO MONITOR THE SMOKE
PLUME AND DETERMINE WHETHER PATCHY SMOKE SHOULD BE CONTINUED INTO
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITHIN LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY WARMER COASTLINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...IF THE DEWPOINT BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES
INTO THE AFTERNOON...THIS BOUNDARY AND THE SEA BREEZE COULD SUPPORT
A FEW DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...12Z GUIDANCE
OFFERS NO COMPELLING REASON TO RAISE MAXIMUM POPS ABOVE THE ONGOING
14 PERCENT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE/CAPPING SHOULD LIMIT
COVERAGE/PERSISTENCE OF DIURNAL SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORMS...THUS HELD
MAXIMUM POPS AT OR BELOW 14 PERCENT...WITH NO EXPLICIT MENTION OF
RAIN...THROUGH THE PERIOD. BECAUSE THE REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED
ON THE EASTERN RIM OF THE UPPER RIDGE...THE DOOR WILL REMAIN OPEN
FOR ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO ADVANCE INTO THE AREA FROM THE N/NW.
HOWEVER...12Z GUIDANCE OFFERS NO STRONG REASON TO RAISE POPS AT THIS
TIME.

MEANWHILE...BY SUNDAY HEAT INDICES COULD APPROACH THE ADVISORY LEVEL
OF 105F IN SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY WILL INCREASE TO CHANCE POPS TUESDAY...AS
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
AND LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDLANDS. THE BEST CHANCE
OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR TUESDAY WHEN LEE TROUGHING IS ENHANCED BY AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND A SEABREEZE
SHIFTS INLAND. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS THE STALLED BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION MIDWEEK.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 90S MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH PREFRONTAL WARMING AND 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES NEAR 1430
METERS INLAND. HEAT INDICES SHOULD APPROACH 100-104 DEGREES
AGAIN...BUT APPEAR TO FALL SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS
DEWPOINTS MIX OUT TO THE UPPER 60S DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...LOW/MID 90S...TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORM OVER KCHS HAS MOVED AWAY BY 330 PM
EDT...AND PREFER TO MAINTAIN JUST CB AT BOTH TERMINALS UNLESS
RADAR TRENDS DICTATE OTHERWISE.

HAVE INCLUDED SMOKE IN THE KCHS TAF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...AS A SMOKE PLUME HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN CHARLESTON COUNTY
AND THE ADJACENT WATERS FROM FIRES IN NORTH CAROLINA. WILL KEEP
PREVAILING VISIBILITIES VFR FOR NOW...HOWEVER PERIODS OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT KCHS CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES COULD RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF VFR FOG
AT KSAV...AS THE SREF MODEL SUGGESTS BETTER POTENTIAL ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CONSIDERING THE EXTENSIVE RAINFALL THAT HAS
OCCURRED AT KCHS THIS AFTERNOON...WILL NEED TO REASSESS FOR A
HIGHER FOG POTENTIAL AT THIS TERMINAL AS WELL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
CONDITIONS WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH A FAIRLY LIGHT PRESSURE PATTERN PREVAILING. TYPICAL
LAND BREEZE/SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS COULD ALLOW FOR BRIEF LOCAL
ENHANCEMENTS NEAR SHORE. HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
LESS THAN 15 KT. OTHER THAN SOME 4 FT SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS EARLY...SEAS WILL BE 3 FT OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT.

EXPECT TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FRIDAY. EVEN AS THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...INCLUDING JULY 4...A STRONGER SEA BREEZE AND NOCTURNAL
SURGING OF S/SW WINDS COULD PUSH WIND SPEEDS CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES. HOWEVER...ODDS FAVOR WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS...ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS 4 FT OR LESS...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
244 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2011

SCZ045-050-052-301915-
CHARLESTON-INLAND BERKELEY-TIDAL BERKELEY-
244 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CHARLESTON AND
BERKELEY COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM EDT...

AT 242 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BERESFORD TO NORTH
CHARLESTON...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
CHARLES TOWNE LANDING...CHARLESTON AIRPORT...CHARLESTON NAVAL
COMPLEX...DANIEL ISLAND...DON HOLT BRIDGE...DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...
HANAHAN...I-26/I-526 INTERCHANGE...JAMES ISLAND COUNTY PARK...JOHNS
ISLAND...MAYBANK BRIDGE...MOUNT PLEASANT TOWNE CENTRE...NAVAL WEAPONS
STATION CHARLESTON...NORTH CHARLESTON...SHADOWMOSS AND WEST ASHLEY...

PREPARE NOW FOR THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
TORRENTIAL RAIN WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS STORMS APPROACH.
BE READY TO TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION IN CASE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3267 8008 3288 8009 3302 7989 3283 7983
TIME...MOT...LOC 1844Z 018DEG 10KT 3293 7988 3285 8000

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
435 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2011

GAZ101-SCZ047-302100-
EFFINGHAM-INLAND JASPER-
435 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF EFFINGHAM AND JASPER
COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM EDT...

AT 433 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...NEAR TARBORO...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
CLYO...PINELAND...ROBERTVILLE AND TARBORO...

PREPARE NOW FOR THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...
STRONG WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS STORMS APPROACH.
BE READY TO TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION IN CASE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3238 8121 3253 8132 3264 8115 3253 8104
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 049DEG 8KT 3253 8119