Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
813 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER THE ATLANTIC...WHILE A COLD
FRONT STALLS TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS FRONT WILL EITHER DRIFT INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK OR DISSIPATE IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS EVENING...WITH A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA. AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS WITH A LEE SIDE TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS OF SOUTH CAROLINA.

CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BASE OF THE SHEAR AXIS ACROSS
SOUTHERN GEORGIA...WHERE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD SHIFT NORTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING PROVIDING THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR ANY CONVECTION WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE LOCAL
4KM RF SHOWS SOME CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS PARTS OF INLAND
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA TOWARD MIDNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING SHEAR AXIS...WITH THE CONVECTION THEN SPREADING TOWARD
THE COAST DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY LINGERING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE OR MOVE OFFSHORE BY
LATE TONIGHT.

IMPRESSIVE SMOKE FROM NUMEROUS FIRES IN FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA IS
ALREADY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF TATTNALL...LONG AND MCINTOSH
COUNTIES. NOAA HYSPLIT INDICATES THE SMOKE SPREADING A BIT FARTHER
NORTH TOWARD THE SAVANNAH RIVER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE
INDICATED AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE GRIDS FOR THESE AREAS THOUGH THE
NIGHT AS A RESULT. A BIT CONCERNED THAT VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME
REDUCED IN THE SMOKE AS THE INVERSION STRENGTHENS SO THIS WILL BE
SOMETHING TO MONITOR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT STEADILY
BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY...HOWEVER...THE UPPER RIDGE COULD REDUCE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION.
THUS...WILL STILL MAINTAIN PERIODS OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FAVORED TIMES OF AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MID
TO UPPER 90S EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS. SOME INLAND AREAS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COULD EVEN BRIEFLY REACH 100 DEGREES IN THE
AFTERNOON. AREAS ALONG THE BEACHES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 80S. ALL RECORDS APPEAR TO BE SAFE AT THIS POINT...HOWEVER IF
CLOUD COVERAGE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY DOES NOT
MATERIALIZE...THEN KCHS AND KSAV COULD POSSIBLY REACH RECORD HIGHS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL
LIKELY SEE HEAT INDICES TOUCH 100 TO 102 DEGREES DURING THE PEAK
HEATING TIME PERIODS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY HEAT ADVISORIES WILL
BE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS AS
A FEW ISOLATED AREAS COULD SEE HEAT INDICES CLIMB A DEGREE OR TWO
HIGHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST MODELS HINT THAT THE LINGERING FRONT TO
THE NORTH AND ITS ASSOCIATED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO
SLIP SOUTH TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...EITHER
DISSIPATING OVER THE REGION OR PULLING INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
DETAILS OF THESE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES ARE STILL REPRESENTED
DIFFERENTLY BETWEEN MID RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO FORECAST JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE
COAST AND LOWS IN THE LOW 70S EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA TO IMPACT KSAV LATER TONIGHT ACCORDING
TO THE NOAA HYSPLIT MODEL. AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION
STRENGTHENS...VISIBILITIES COULD GET REDUCED TO MVFR LEVELS OR
LOWER AT TIMES. FOR NOW THE KSAV TAF INDICATES VISIBILITIES OF
6SM IN SMOKE FROM 08-13Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WILL MONITOR SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...WHICH COULD REDUCE
VSBY AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS ATTM. OVERNIGHT SURGE OF
WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF SEAS...BUT
THEY SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW 5 FEET.

A MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
WATERS AS ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND.
NOCTURNAL SURGES OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES EACH NIGHT
WITH SOME LOCAL ENHANCEMENTS NEAR THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE EACH
AFTERNOON. PREVAILING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL AID IN
BUILDING SEAS OVER THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY HAVE 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER SOME 5 FOOT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE FAR OUTER WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE STARTING TO INCREASE AND IT APPEARS THAT TIDE
LEVELS COULD ONCE AGAIN EXCEED 7.0 FT MLLW AT CHARLESTON HARBOR AT
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FOR SCZ048>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

JAQ

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