Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1027 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD
THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAS PUSHED INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES LATE THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A
FAIRLY DECENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY AIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES. EXPECT THIS LINE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO HOLD TOGETHER FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
GIVEN LINGERING INSTABILITY AND FORWARD MOMENTUM THE COMPLEX OF
STORMS HAS. HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. AT THIS POINT SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY END
BY 06Z...WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF AN APPROACHING/WEAKENING COLD FRONT AND
THE SEA BREEZE COULD RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. A FEW UPPER 90S ARE EVEN
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR AROUND MILLEN AND METTER.

FRIDAY NIGHT...DECENT COVERAGE OF RAINFALL AND/OR THE
WEAKENING/STALLING SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY COULD TRANSLATE TO AN ENHANCED
POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG OVERNIGHT. WITH THUNDERSTORMS...LOWS IN
THE 60S WILL BECOME COMMON INLAND. WITHOUT THUNDERSTORMS...LOWS WILL
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 70 DEGREES AT MANY LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EXPAND EAST...AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 90S WILL BECOME COMMON AWAY FROM THE
COAST. ALSO...THE RESULTING CAP SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...THUS HELD POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL WEAKEN OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE/WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. LITTLE TO NO
RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED WITH MILD LOWS AROUND 70.

SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AGAIN AND CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL MAKE A RUN FOR THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY.
EVEN HOTTER TEMPS EXPECTED GIVEN THE OFFSHORE/DOWNSLOPE FLOW...WITH
UPPER 90S MORE COMMON INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT
AMONGST THE 12Z/2 GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
RIDGE AND THUS RAIN PROSPECTS. FOR NOW HAVE MAINTAINED NO MORE THAN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR VSBYS AT KCHS
AND KSAV PRIOR TO DAYBREAK IN SHALLOW GROUND FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS...AND FOG LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR UNLIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY.
AN INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER THE WATERS BY
SATURDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO OR THROUGH THE
WATERS WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON WINDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONGEST
WINDS...AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT...WILL OCCUR WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE EACH DAY AND FROM THE S/SW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN 3 FT OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
329 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2011

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ099-114>117-137>141-031930-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-CANDLER-TATTNALL-EVANS-INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-LONG-
INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
329 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GAZ087-088-100-101-118-119-SCZ040-042>045-047>052-031930-
JENKINS-SCREVEN-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-INLAND BERKELEY-
INLAND JASPER-BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
TIDAL BERKELEY-
329 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2011

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TO MID EVENING. A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE INLAND FROM HIGHWAY 17 IN SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

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