Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
405 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE SHIFTS
FARTHER NORTHEAST. ADDITIONAL MAINLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY LINGERS
ACROSS THE AREA...DRIVEN MAINLY BE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...AND THE
SEA BREEZE. THINK RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY
AND DEEPER MOISTURE. SAW ONE SEVERE STORM IN ALLENDALE COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON AND ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE LINGERING INSTABILITY AND WBZ HEIGHTS AROUND 10K FT. LATER
TONIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME FOG...ALTHOUGH INCREASING LOW- LEVEL
WINDS WOULD INDICATE A BETTER CHANCE OF STRATUS. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR FOG WILL LIKELY BE IN AREAS THAT SAW APPRECIABLE RAIN TODAY
AND WHERE SURFACE WINDS ARE ABLE TO DECOUPLE. KEPT PATCHY FOG IN
THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOWS LOOK TO
REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT...MAINLY UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...WARMEST
ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TOWARD THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS A SLOW RETREAT. A
MOIST SW FLOW WILL MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A ROBUST CAP AROUND 650 MB
ALL DAY. THIS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
THUS WE HAVE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN
SOUTHERN SC DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE THE SEABREEZE MAY PROVIDE
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FOR ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA. FOR HIGHS WE FORECAST
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW THICKNESS PROGS WHICH GIVES UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND DEEP MIXING WILL
YIELD BREEZY CONDITIONS.

PRE-FRONTAL PRECIP WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO WESTERN ZONES WED NIGHT
WITH THE BRUNT OF THE FRONTAL CONVECTION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FROPA BETWEEN
16-20Z THU. POTENT ATMOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE MAY RESULT IN A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS POINT
DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR THE PRIMARY THREAT. WE ARE SHOWING LIKELY POPS
THU MORNING WITH SOLID CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER BREEZY/WINDY
DAY IS IN STORE DUE TO A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AND DEEP MIXING.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SKIES SHOULD RAPIDLY CLEAR OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR INTO FRIDAY AS COOL DRY
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...KEEPING THICKNESSES
LOWER THAN WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED IN PRIOR DAYS. DOWNSLOPE
WARMING WILL BE THE ONLY OFFSET FOR THE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
BUT HIGHS WILL NEVERTHELESS REACH THE LOWER 80S.

LAKE WINDS...INCREASING GRADIENT WED INTO THU WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
CONDITIONS ON LAKE MOULTRIE. GUSTS TO 25 KT QUITE POSSIBLE DURING
THE PERIOD SO WE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. DECENT MIXING SHOULD
CONTINUE WED NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE GUSTS MAY FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN THE SHORT-LIVED DEEP RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE
ATLANTIC SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL NUDGE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PUSHING ITS WAY EASTWARD ON MONDAY
TOWARD THE EAST COAST. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SUNDAY...THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. THERE
ARE STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH IT...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO ADD IN 20/30 POPS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN WARM A FEW DEGREES AS RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA IN THE ATLANTIC BRINGS IN WARMER AND
MORE MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE RISK OF SH/TSRA IS DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET FOR AT LEAST MVFR CIGS TONIGHT
AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.
HOWEVER...AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT VSBYS MAY NOT DROP MUCH GIVEN
THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS. DID MAINTAIN MVFR VSBYS AT
KSAV WHERE CHANCES APPEAR A BIT GREATER AT PRESENT.

S/SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE
UPPER TEENS. AFTER A LULL OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MORE GUSTS AFTER
ABOUT 15Z/27.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. THE TERMINALS MAY EXPERIENCE WIND
SHEAR IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE LOCAL WATERS WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE...WHICH RESULTS IN A CONTINUED
SE TO S 15 TO 20 KT WIND. SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE
LEADING TO SCA CONDS BEYOND 20 NM...THEN PUSHING INTO THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WED
AND WED NIGHT BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. S WINDS WILL INCREASE TO A
SOLID 15-20 KT WED WITH 6 FT SEAS BUILDING INTO ALL WATERS BY
AFTERNOON. THUS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL
WATERS BUT THE HARBOR AT STAGGERED BEGIN TIMES.

WINDS RAMP UP SIGNIFICANTLY WED NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
TIGHTEN. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL INCREASE TO A SOLID 20-25 KT LATE WED
NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE WATERS WHILE SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD. WINDS
REMAIN FAIRLY GUSTY THROUGH THU BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE IN THE
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO CLEAR THE MARINE AREA LATE THURSDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ITS WAKE FROM THE NORTHERN GULF STATES THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY....BEFORE THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
OVER THE WEEKEND. OTHER THAN A LINGERING SCA FOR A FEW 6 FOOTERS
ACROSS AMZ350 AND AMZ374 THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW ANY SCA CONDITIONS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...PERSISTENT ONSHORE WIND AND 3 FT SWELL ENERGY WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WED. ON THU THE WINDS START
TO TURN MORE OFFSHORE...BUT LINGERING SWELLS WILL LIKELY AGAIN
PRODUCE AN ELEVATED RISK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ354.

&&

RJB/JRL

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
218 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

SCZ040-042-261845-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-
218 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF ALLENDALE AND HAMPTON
COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM EDT...

AT 212 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...NEAR ESTILL...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
ESTILL...FAIRFAX...HAMPTON...VARNVILLE...ALLENDALE COUNTY AIRPORT AND
HAMPTON-VARNVILLE AIRPORT...

PREPARE NOW FOR THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...
DIME SIZE HAIL...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS STORMS APPROACH.
BE READY TO TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION IN CASE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3301 8137 3296 8104 3273 8105 3259 8124
      3269 8138
TIME...MOT...LOC 1818Z 190DEG 24KT 3279 8129

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
234 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

GAZ088-SCZ040-042-261900-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-SCREVEN-
234 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SCREVEN...ALLENDALE
AND HAMPTON COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM EDT...

AT 231 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...NEAR NEWINGTON...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
...

PREPARE NOW FOR THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...
DIME SIZE HAIL...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS STORMS APPROACH.
BE READY TO TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION IN CASE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3282 8154 3282 8137 3259 8139 3255 8148
      3257 8152
TIME...MOT...LOC 1835Z 185DEG 15KT 3262 8145

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
239 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 39 SSE CENTENARY        32.50N  79.10W
04/26/2011  M40 MPH          AMZ370             SC   BUOY

            PEAK GUST 35 KT FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1100365

JRL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
303 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

SCZ040-042-261930-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-
303 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF ALLENDALE AND HAMPTON
COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM EDT...

AT 300 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...NEAR ALLENDALE...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
ALLENDALE...FAIRFAX AND ALLENDALE COUNTY AIRPORT...

PREPARE NOW FOR THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...
NICKEL SIZE HAIL...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS STORMS APPROACH.
BE READY TO TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION IN CASE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3311 8136 3311 8128 3312 8125 3312 8119
      3310 8116 3309 8116 3292 8120 3294 8141
      3313 8141
TIME...MOT...LOC 1904Z 185DEG 15KT 3302 8129

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
316 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0312 PM     HAIL             4 WSW ULMER             33.09N  81.27W
04/26/2011  E1.00 INCH       ALLENDALE          SC   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1100366

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