Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
405 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A LINGERING FRONT AND AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
SATURDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE...INDICATED BY THE SWATH OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND NORTHERN GEORGIA...IS SLOWLY ERODING TO THE NORTH BY
MID AFTERNOON. THE LINGERING BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH AS A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE ACCORDINGLY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MAINLY THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA PERSIST WITHIN THE
DEEP MOISTURE OF THE ERODING WEDGE...WHILE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE INITIATED SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITHIN WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE
AIR.

WILL FOLLOW PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION INDICATED IN BOTH THE 12Z AND
18Z NAM SOLUTIONS...WHICH SHOW PRECIPITATION LIFTING NORTH DURING
THE EVENING HOURS FOLLOWING THE DEPARTING DEEP MOISTURE OF THE
INLAND WEDGE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER THE ATLANTIC
TONIGHT...WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS FROM THE SOUTH. THIS
PATTERN CHANGE FURTHER SUGGESTS REDUCED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL TONIGHT...AND WILL THUS STEADILY DECREASE POPS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THIS EVENING TO RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND A MORE SOLID SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN MILD OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ALONG THE INLAND PROGRESSING SEA BREEZE. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS
APPEAR SUFFICIENTLY DRY/CAPPED TO PREVENT MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT
MOST/ALL LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S WILL BE COMMON AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
DECOUPLING/LIGHT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD SUPPORT PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANOTHER UNSEASONABLE WARM NIGHT...FEATURING LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S INLAND AND CLOSE TO 70F ON THE BEACHES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE SATURDAY
REGIME. UNDER DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL PREVAIL...AND POPS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW MAINLY ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN TUESDAY AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE S/SE. THUS...THE PROSPECT FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TO SOME DEGREE...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD END UP
A FEW DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL IN THE LOWER/MID 80S AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

MEANWHILE...A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPAWNING OFF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY NE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUE-WED TO
THE GREAT LAKES BY THU. IN CONJUNCTION WILL BE A RAPIDLY DEEPENING
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WED AND CROSS THE APPALACHIANS THU. GULF MOISTURE WILL
POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SUPPORTING MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU. THERE ARE STILL PLENTY OF TIMING
ISSUES AMONG THE MODELS BUT HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LOW-MID CHC
RANGE FOR THIS SCENARIO. THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVES THROUGH THU
LEADING TO DRIER CONDITIONS BEYOND. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
WARMER THAN NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...REACHING THE MID 80S...THEN
HAVE SHOWN A SLIGHT COOL DOWN THU WITH THE POTENTIAL FROPA. WILL
ALSO NEED TO SEE HOW WELL MID-UPPER LEVEL JETTING AND INSTABILITY
COMBINE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS SOME MODELS TO TRY TO ADVERTISE STRONG
TSTM ORGANIZATION. WILL NEED A FEW MORE MODEL RUNS TO EVALUATE THIS
POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS...THE KCHS TERMINAL REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP MOISTURE OF
THE INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE AREA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...UNTIL THE MAIN SWATH OF CONVECTION
LIFTS NORTH LATER TODAY. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD
WHERE MVFR CEILINGS LIFT OR SCATTER...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL ALLOW LOW CEILINGS TO
RETURN AND MVFR VISIBILITIES TO POTENTIALLY DEVELOP. DRIER AIR
WILL SHIFT INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS THE WEDGE LIFTS OUT OF
THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL FOR SATURDAY AS A RESULT.

KSAV...A LINGERING FRONT MARKING THE SOUTHERN EXTENT ON AN INLAND
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE
EVENING HOURS. AS A RESULT...THE KSAV TERMINAL HAS REMAINED
OUTSIDE OF THE LOW CLOUD SHIELD AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
NORTH. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS CONCERNING RAIN
POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND PREFER
TO ONLY MENTION CB AT KSAV UNTIL CONVECTIVE TRENDS SOUTH OF THE
FRONT BECOME MORE APPARENT. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGEST KSAV WILL HAVE
LESS MVFR IMPACTS TONIGHT THAN AREAS TO THE NORTH...LIKELY DUE TO
LESS RAINFALL AND OVERALL MOISTURE AT THE TERMINAL TODAY. AT THIS
POINT...PREFER TO INDICATE MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR A FEW
HOURS NEAR DAYBREAK SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL ON SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR SHIFTS INTO THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
AROUND DAYBREAK IN LOW STRATUS/FOG EACH MORNING SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
AN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL SLOWLY ERODE NORTHWARD
TONIGHT...WHILE A LINGERING BOUNDARY ALSO LIFTS NORTH BEFORE
DISSIPATING. SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE MARINE ZONES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL STEADILY VEER MORE TO THE SOUTH BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY...AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SETS UP OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AT 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SEAS A
COMBINATION OF WIND WAVES AND SWELLS AT 5 FT OR LESS.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THIS
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. CIRCULATION AROUND BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SYNOPTIC S TO SE WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ENHANCED BY THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-4 FT WITHIN
NEARSHORE WATERS TO 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM...DOMINATED BY AN 8-10
SECOND PERIOD SWELL. MEANWHILE...THE SREF MODEL CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A CHANCE OF MARINE FOG THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT
WATER TEMPS ARE 70F OR HIGHER WE FEEL THAT THIS MAY BE OVERDONE AND
WE WILL INDICATE MARINE FOG WITHIN ANY FORECASTS. HOWEVER...
RADIATION FOG COULD IMPACT CHARLESTON HARBOR DURING THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY-SUNDAY...AND PERHAPS
MONDAY-TUESDAY AS WELL.

AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT COULD SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS/SEAS ACROSS PARTS
OF OR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND SMALL
SWELLS WILL RESULT IN A MARGINAL MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
340 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2011

GAZ117-119-139-141-SCZ048>051-231100-
COASTAL BRYAN-COASTAL CHATHAM-COASTAL LIBERTY-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
340 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2011

...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH 8 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>116-118-137-138-140-
SCZ040-042>045-047-052-231100-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-LONG-INLAND LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-INLAND BERKELEY-
INLAND JASPER-TIDAL BERKELEY-
340 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
345 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2011

GAZ101-SCZ047-222015-
EFFINGHAM-INLAND JASPER-
345 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF EFFINGHAM AND JASPER
COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

AT 342 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...NEAR TARBORO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
SWITZERLAND...TARBORO AND TILLMAN...

PREPARE NOW FOR THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 MPH...
DIME SIZE HAIL...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HAVE AN ACTION PLAN READY IN THE EVENT THIS STORM STRENGTHENS OR A
WARNING IS ISSUED. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS
FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3246 8095 3231 8111 3247 8123 3256 8113
TIME...MOT...LOC 1944Z 315DEG 15KT 3248 8115

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
412 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2011

GAZ101-SCZ047-048-051-222045-
BEAUFORT-COASTAL JASPER-EFFINGHAM-INLAND JASPER-
412 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF EFFINGHAM...BEAUFORT
AND JASPER COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT...

AT 411 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...NEAR DEERFIELD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
JASPER...LEMON ISLAND...SUN CITY AND SWITZERLAND...

PREPARE NOW FOR THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...
PENNY SIZE HAIL...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HAVE AN ACTION PLAN READY IN THE EVENT THIS STORM STRENGTHENS OR A
WARNING IS ISSUED. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS
FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3237 8079 3223 8101 3240 8120 3249 8104
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 315DEG 15KT 3240 8106