Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Charleston, SC

270 
WWUS52 KCHS 271831
SVSCHS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
231 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

SCC013-271900-
/O.CON.KCHS.SV.W.0010.000000T0000Z-110327T1900Z/
BEAUFORT SC-
231 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL BEAUFORT COUNTY...

AT 229 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 8 MILES WEST OF PARRIS ISLAND...OR ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF BEAUFORT...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...FRIPP
ISLAND AND PARRIS ISLAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMAIN ALERT. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AS STORMS
APPROACH. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR
ROOM AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8066 3227 8070 3226 8070 3227 8073
      3229 8069 3233 8073 3229 8075 3233 8076
      3232 8074 3233 8073 3236 8075 3233 8046
      3227 8056 3227 8060 3225 8064
TIME...MOT...LOC 1830Z 288DEG 31KT 3235 8081

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
146 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE EAST ALONG A
LINGERING FRONT TODAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH
TONIGHT...AS COLDER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE
ANOTHER SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL GEORGIA EASTWARD THROUGH
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING. THE REMNANTS OF A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUE TO TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA ZONES THIS HOUR...WHILE STRONGER CONVECTION TO THE WEST
IS RAPIDLY TRACKING ALONG THE LINGERING FRONT. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AS THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION TODAY.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SLIP SOUTHWARD LATER TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. SOUTH OF THE DESCENDING FRONT...CONDITIONS WILL WARM
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH DEWPOINTS POTENTIALLY STAYING
IN MID TO UPPER 60S. DECENT INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYERED SHEAR...SUGGEST ORGANIZED
STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE. NUMEROUS MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES AND THE SEABREEZE COULD INTERACT WITH THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE FRONT TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL CONVERGENCE AND FOCI FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS POINT...THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE WOULD
SUGGEST A LOWER CHANCE OF TORNADOES...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO IF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTENTLY TRACK ALONG
BOUNDARIES.

WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS MUCH OF THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER IMPACTS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THIS FEATURE. EXPECT A
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT...WITH INLAND SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF
THE 60 DEGREE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
COUNTIES RISING TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. IN ADDITION...CLOUD COVER
TRENDS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED...AS THICKENING SKY COVER
COULD SLOW WARMING AND DESTABILIZATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WEDGE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH TONIGHT...WITH THE NAM MOST
AGGRESSIVE AND COLDEST IN ITS WAKE. CONVECTION MAY STILL BE
ROBUST IN THE EARLY EVENING IN PARTS OF SE GEORGIA...THEN LIGHTER
SCATTERED RAINS ARE POSSIBLE LATE. SHALLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION
LOOKS IMPRESSIVE AND VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE
TRENDS AND NUMBERS.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN LESS THAN DESIRABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIODS THIS MORNING...LEADING TO LOWER THAN NORMAL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA. WILL NEED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION DESPITE THE DEVELOPING WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. EXPECT HIGHEST RAIN
PROBABILITIES MONDAY MORNING...WITH DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE RAIN FREE CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST FORCING SHIFT OFFSHORE.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE SHOULD SLOWLY BREAK DOWN/ERODE ON
TUESDAY...WITH A STORM SYSTEM THEN APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST RAIN FREE ON
TUESDAY...THEN CARRY CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS DEEP
MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREAD THE AREA ONCE
AGAIN.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT QUITE A RANGE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER
50S ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES...TO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE
ALTAMAHA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER
40S INLAND...AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE QUITE TRICKY TO PIN DOWN AND WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ABLE TO BREAK
DOWN. FOR NOW WILL KEEP HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S AREA WIDE.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S MOST LOCALES...WITH
HIGHS WEDNESDAY REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE EXTENDED FORECAST
DUE TO LARGE MODEL INCONSISTENCIES. OVERALL...EXPECT AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA...AND WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AREA
WIDE. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST OPTIMISTIC AT THIS POINT OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...MAINTAINING RAIN FREE CONDITIONS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO MEANDER WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF CLIMO
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KCHS...IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND A
SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NORTH
NORTHEAST AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ALSO OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND LOWER VSBYS TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 14Z MONDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM LIFR TO IFR LATE MONDAY
MORNING...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IFR THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

KSAV...WEST WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS BEFORE SHOWERS
ENTER THE REGION AND MVFR CIGS ENCOMPASS THE AREA. WEST WIND GUSTS
WILL THEN BE CONFINED TO AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 19Z AND
23Z. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...BUT HAVE NOT BEEN INTRODUCED IN THE TAF DURING 19Z
THROUGH 23Z. IFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL BY 00Z AS FROPA OCCURS AND A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. LIFR CIGS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH/NORTHEAST BY 00Z
AND REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE REMAINING 24 HOUR TAF.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM LIFR TO IFR LATE MONDAY
MORNING...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IFR THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK. IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MVFR AND PERIODIC IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A LINGERING FRONT WILL BISECT THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS
TODAY...WITH WINDS HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION AND
PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
OFF CHARLESTON COUNTY FIRST...WHILE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS MORE
PERSISTENT CLOSER TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE. SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS SHOULD PERSIST ALL DAY TO THE SOUTH OF SAVANNAH...AROUND
GRAYS REEF. THE COLD FRONT COULD SUPPORT SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT IF A FEW OF THE
MODEL PINCHING TRENDS ARE CORRECT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DUE TO
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISCREPANCIES. NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD REACH
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH LATE NIGHT
SURGES TO AT LEAST 15 KT. ELSEWHERE TONIGHT...CLOSE TO 20 KT IS
LIKELY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT...HIGHER WELL OFFSHORE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE WATERS MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...BEFORE A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SEAS REACHING SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS...SEAS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH ADVISORY
LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR ALL
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1032 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

AMZ374-281445-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
1032 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE WEATHER...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ALONG
AND TO THE SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN HAZARDS EXPECTED WITH THE
STORMS ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY.

AMZ330-350-352-354-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-042>045-
047>052-281445-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-
EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-
COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-
COASTAL MCINTOSH-ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-
INLAND BERKELEY-INLAND JASPER-BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-
COASTAL JASPER-TIDAL BERKELEY-
1032 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 68 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
144 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0142 PM     HAIL             2 W BEAUFORT            32.44N  80.72W
03/27/2011  M1.75 INCH       BEAUFORT           SC   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1100175

JRL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
146 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     HAIL             BEAUFORT                32.44N  80.68W
03/27/2011  M1.00 INCH       BEAUFORT           SC   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL ON COUNCIL ROCK RD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1100176

JRL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
146 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

GAZ087-088-SCZ040-271815-
ALLENDALE-JENKINS-SCREVEN-
146 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF JENKINS...SCREVEN AND
ALLENDALE COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM EDT...

AT 144 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...NEAR BIRDSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
HILLTONIA...MILLHAVEN AND PERKINS...

PREPARE NOW FOR THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...
STRONG WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...
NICKEL SIZE HAIL...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS STORMS APPROACH.
BE READY TO TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION IN CASE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3287 8213 3292 8208 3292 8195 3295 8185
      3291 8176 3304 8156 3306 8158 3307 8156
      3284 8154 3283 8214
TIME...MOT...LOC 1746Z 266DEG 37KT 3293 8205

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
147 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0146 PM     HAIL             BEAUFORT                32.44N  80.68W
03/27/2011  M1.25 INCH       BEAUFORT           SC   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL IN BEAUFORT ON
            HWY 170.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1100177

JRL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
149 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     HAIL             BEAUFORT                32.44N  80.68W
03/27/2011  E0.75 INCH       BEAUFORT           SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED PENNY SIZE HAIL IN DOWNTOWN BEAUFORT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1100178

WMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
156 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0144 PM     HAIL             PORT ROYAL              32.38N  80.69W
03/27/2011  M1.75 INCH       BEAUFORT           SC   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL IN PORT ROYAL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1100180

JRL