Lake Wind Advisory 27, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
338 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2011

...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY...
...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES...

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OFFSHORE THROUGH LATE WEEK...CAUSING
HURRICANE KATIA IN THE ATLANTIC TO TURN AND PASS OFFSHORE. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COULD THEN DEVELOP NEAR THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE STEADILY BLOSSOMING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
AHEAD OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
LEE. THE LOW WAS POSITIONED ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AT 05/19Z AND
IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE ALONG THE ATTACHED COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHWEST GEORGIA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. A STRONG 925-850MB LOW-
LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL TRANSPORT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA
OVERNIGHT WITH PWATS RUNNING WELL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. THE
PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELLS POSING A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES.

FOR THE NEAR TERM...SHOWER/TSTMS DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EASTERN FRINGES OF THE 925-850MB JET. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AND
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL STEADILY
EXPAND AND ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH SUNSET...POSSIBLY MAKING A RUN FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES
LATE. FAIRLY HIGH POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH POPS RANGING FROM 70
PERCENT ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE
CHARLESTON METRO AREA. MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT A
RISK FOR SCATTERED TSTMS THROUGH AT LEAST 8-9 PM. LOW- LEVEL WIND
PROFILES CONTINUE TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED WITH KCLX VWP
SHOWING A PRONOUNCED VEERING PATTERN FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 7
KFT. 0-1KM HELICITIES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN 300-400 J/KG
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING WIND FIELD AS
THE LEE/S REMNANT LOW MOVES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED SLIGHT RISK FOR TORNADOES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OCCURRING WEST OF INTERSTATE 95.

OVERNIGHT...THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH SHOWER/
TSTM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR AS THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE SHOWING MIXED
SIGNALS. ALTHOUGH WE SUSPECT A GOOD PORTION OF THE ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING NOW WILL SLOWLY DIE OFF WITH THE LOSS OF INSOLATION...
AT LEAST ISOLATED TO LOW-END SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY LINGER
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT--OR IF SOME OF THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE
CORRECT REDEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT--AS THE STRENGTHENING 925-850MB
LOW-LEVEL JET INTERACTS WITH A VERY MOISTURE LADEN AIRMASS. A
PSEUDO-ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL BE
LIKELY APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST BY SUNRISE...
WHICH WILL ALSO POSE A SECONDARY RISK FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THIS RISK WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADDRESSED IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. STRONG LOW-LEVEL JETTING WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE
FAIRLY WELL MIXED TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S WELL
INLAND TO AROUND 80 AT THE BEACHES.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-
LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES ALOFT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH
MIXING WILL OCCUR OVER THE OPEN LAKE WATERS OF LAKE MOULTRIE.
RUC SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUGGEST AN INVERSION WILL SETUP OVER THE
LAKE...BUT ALSO DOES NOT SHOW MUCH OVER 20 KT WITHIN THE MIXED
LAYER. PLAN TO CAP WINDS AT 15-20 KT...BUT EVEN A SLIGHT INCREASE
WILL NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF A LAKE WIND ADVISORY EITHER LATER
THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE
FUTURE TRACK OF THE REMNANT LOW FROM T.D. LEE. THE UPPER LOW WILL
LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD
FRONT LIFT NORTHEAST. A PRONOUNCED VORT MAX IS PROGGED TO SHIFT INTO
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY A SHARP COLD
FRONT. STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE MAY RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION ON TUESDAY.
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS WE WILL START THE DAY WITH PERVASIVE CLOUD
COVER BUT SOME BREAKS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING. THE AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE WILL HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL EFFECT ON THE DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. WE ALSO EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DURING THE DAY AS A JET STREAK
MOVES INTO WESTERN GEORGIA. REGARDLESS OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...
THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA. WE ARE CARRYING LIKELY POPS PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE AT SOME
POINT DURING THE DAY. WILL MAINTAIN SEVERE WEATHER MENTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITATION WILL TREND EASTWARD BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MAKE VERY SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY SO WE MAINTAINED 20-30
POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS THESE
MAY NEED TO BE FURTHER REDUCED BY THE NEXT SHIFT. MODIFIED CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING SIGNIFICANTLY
DRIER AIR AND LOWER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER POOR AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD...LEADING TO A LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. HOWEVER...MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST THAT A FRONT SHOULD
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. OTHER THAN SOME COASTAL/MARINE IMPACTS...HURRICANE KATIA
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON THE AREA AS THIS FRONT IN CONJUNCTION
WITH AN EXPANSIVE CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY STEERS HURRICANE
KATIA AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION THAT A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE COULD TRY TO DEVELOP AND
TRACK ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT THIS IS RATHER
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING...BUT EXPECTED
DEVELOPING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD EASILY RESULT IN
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AT TIMES. INCLUDED CB GROUPS FOR BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV WHILE MAINTAINING A TEMPO GROUP OF SHRA AT KSAV AFTER 21Z.
HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO RELY ON AMENDMENTS TO BETTER PIN DOWN
CONVECTION TIMING AS PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE REMAIN UNCERTAIN. SOME
MODELS SUGGEST THAT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS COULD ADVECT ONSHORE AND AFFECT KCHS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AS WELL.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL
JETTING COULD RESULT IN POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT AS
GUSTS DIMINISH AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS KEEPING LLWS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL STEADILY INCREASE TONIGHT AS STRONG LOW-
LEVEL JETTING TAKES HOLD. EXPECT WINDS TO PEAK 20-25 KT LATER THIS
EVENING AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNRISE. BUOYS INDICATE SWELLS
ASSOCIATED WITH DISTANT HURRICANE KATIA CONTINUE AND WILL COMBINE
WITH AN INCREASING WIND WAVE TO YIELD SOME FAIRLY CHOPPY AND
CHAOTIC CONDITIONS. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL
ZONES...INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR THROUGH TONIGHT.

STRONG LOW-LEVEL JETTING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY. 25-30 KT GEOSTROPHIC WINDS ALONG
WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST WILL ALLOW FOR
GUSTY CONDITIONS IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AS WELL. QUITE A BIT OF
SWELL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH DISTANT HURRICANE KATIA WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO IMPACT OUR WATERS. THUS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE
IN EFFECT. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SUBSTANTIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
CONTINUED SWELL WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH
MID-LATE WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...SWELL PERIODS WILL DROP TO AROUND 13 SECONDS ON
TUESDAY BUT HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN AROUND 3 FT. WE ALSO EXPECT STRONG
ONSHORE WINDS AROUND 20 KTS WHICH...COMBINED WITH THE SWELL ENERGY
WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
338 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2011

GAZ137-140-141-052015-
COASTAL MCINTOSH-INLAND MCINTOSH-LONG-
338 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF LONG AND MCINTOSH
COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

AT 337 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 20 MILES WEST OF
COX TO 10 MILES SOUTH OF COX TO 19 MILES SOUTH OF DARIEN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
CARNIGAN...COX...CRESCENT...DARIEN...EULONIA...JONES...LUDOWICI...
MERIDIAN...PINE HARBOR...RIDGEVILLE...SAPELO ISLAND...SHELLMAN
BLUFF...TIBET...TOWNSEND...VALONA AND WOLF ISLAND...

PREPARE NOW FOR THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HAVE AN ACTION PLAN READY IN THE EVENT THIS STORM STRENGTHENS OR A
WARNING IS ISSUED. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS
FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3133 8144 3136 8154 3143 8161 3147 8162
      3156 8170 3158 8170 3166 8182 3179 8169
      3156 8130 3145 8121 3140 8125 3137 8124
      3137 8127 3130 8126 3129 8130 3131 8139
      3129 8141
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 216DEG 40KT 3145 8189 3134 8159
          3112 8149