Small Craft Advisory 8, NWS Caribou, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
350 AM EST SUN JAN 23 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN SLIDE SOUTH OF THE STATE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY. STRONGER LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES
WILL APPROACH NOVA SCOTIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONCERNS FOR THE NEAR TERM INCLUDE A POSSIBLE LCLZD WEAK NORLUN
LGT SN EVENT FOR COASTAL HANCOCK COUNTY TDY AND WIND CHILLS
BEGINNING ACROSS THE N TDY AND THEN XPNDG SWRD TO MOST OF THE REST
OF THE FA TNGT.

MODELS HINT AT A POSSIBLE LGT NORLUN SN EVENT AFFECTING THE MID
COAST OF ME TDY...INCLUDING COASTAL HANCOCK COUNTY AS A S/WV ALF
FROM THE UPPER GREAT LKS INTERACTS WITH A WEAK INVERTED SFC TROF
XTNG NW FROM INTENSIFYING SFC LOW PRES WELL SE OVR THE OPEN ATLC.
DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH THIS EVENT...BUT THE NAM AND GFS
INDICATE A LIFT FIELD STRADDLING THE WFO GYX'S MID ME COAST AND
INTO COASTAL HANCOCK COUNTY. WE HAD TO CREATE QPF FROM SCRATCH AND
THEN USED A POPS FROM QPF TOOL TO CREATE THE CORRESPONDING POPS.
THE UPSHOT IS THAT WE WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS COASTAL
HANCOCK COUNTY LATER THIS MORN INTO AFTN WITH CATEGORICAL POPS
JUST OFFSHORE BRUSHING THE OUTER ISLANDS. IN CREATING 6 HRLY SNFL
GRIDS...WE USED 20:1 RATIOS ON CORRESPONDING QPF GRIDS WHICH WE
GENERALLY WENT LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQ EQIV...XCPT
OUTER ISLANDS WHERE WE GO AS HIGH AS 0.10 TO 0.15 IN OF LIQ EQIV.
THIS RESULTS IN POSSIBLE TOTAL SNFL OF ARND AN INCH FOR COASTAL
HANCOCK COUNTY WITH LOCALLY UP TO 2 TO 3 IN ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND OUTER ISLANDS. IT APPEARS THAT THIS EVENT SHOULD WIND
DOWN BY LATE AFTN AS THE S/WV ALF CROSSES THE FA....INCREASING
LLVL COLD ADVCN OVR ALL OF THE WATERS. OUTSIDE OF THIS SMALL AREA
OF CONCERN...ONLY SCT FLURRIES ARE XPCTD TDY.

OTHERWISE...THE FOCUS THE SHIFTS MORE AND MORE TO WIND CHILLS AS
WE PROGRESS FROM TDY INTO TNGT DURG WHICH TIME BITTERLY COLD
ARCTIC AIR ADVECTS INTO THE FA FROM QB PROV. DUE TO FCSTS OF WIND
CHILLS OF 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO DURG DAYLGT HRS TDY ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF THE FA...WE HAD TO TRANSITION THE WIND CHILL WATCH THERE
TO A WIND CHILL ADV TDY FOLLOWED BY A WIND CHILL WARN TNGT. ACROSS
THE S...WE KEPT THE WATCH ISSUED BY THE PRIOR DAY SHIFT FOR TNGT.
WINDS COULD BE MARGINAL FOR WIND CHILL HDLNS BOTH TDY AND TNGT
ACROSS PROTECTED WRN VLYS...BUT HIGHER TRRN SHOULD EASILY EXPERIENCE
WINDS ABV 10 MPH LATER TDY INTO TNGT. SEE ONLY LIMITED POTENTIAL
FOR ARCTIC SFC INVSN FORMATION OVR THE WRN VLYS LATE TNGT...SO WE
DID NOT GO BLO MOS GUIDANCE FOR MON ERLY MORN LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE USHERING
IN THE COLDEST WEATHER THE REGION HAS SEEN SINCE JANUARY OF 2009.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH MONDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO FOR HIGHS IN THE NORTH AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO DOWNEAST. WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH WILL RESULT IN FRIGID
WIND CHILLS AND WILL LIKELY REQUIRE WIND CHILL WARNINGS. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A BITTERLY COLD MONDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING IN WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. A WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCE ON TUESDAY COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL
RESULT IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OUR FOCUS IN THE LONG RANGE IS ON A STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE
OFF THE MID ATLC COAST WED THEN TRACK NE TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA WED
NIGHT. LATEST MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON A TRACK VERY SIMILAR TO
MANY OF OUR OTHER WINTER STORMS THIS YEAR...NEAR SW NOVA
SCOTIA...WHICH WOULD FAVOR HEAVY SNOW DOWNEAST WITH LIGHTER SNOWS
TO THE NORTH. ENSEMBLE FORECASTS...HOWEVER...STILL INDICATE
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK BASED MAINLY ON THE
CHALLENGE OF FORECASTING HOW THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE WILL
PHASE (N BRANCH WAVE DIGGING SOUTH WOULD ENGAGE MID ATLC LOW
BRINGING BIG STORM WHILE N BRANCH SLIDING EAST INTO E CANADA
WOULD WHISK LOW OUT TO SEA). THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW WILL
COME FROM A LARGE BUT MOISTURE LIMITED LOW SLIDING ACROSS THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING A LIGHT SNOWFALL TO
MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY. MORE ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR ALL TAF SITES...XCPT PERHAPS KBHB WHICH MAY
BECOME MVFR LATER THIS MORN INTO AFTN...AS LGT SN JUST OFF SHORE
ATTEMPTS TO MOVE INLAND. BRIEF LCLZD MVFR SC CLGS ARE POSSIBLE TDY
INTO THIS EVE ACROSS NRN TAF SITES.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN OFFSHORE
STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA WINDS/SEAS AND FREEZING SPRAY WILL BECOME THE MAIN
CONCERNS BY TONIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NNW WITH MDTLY
STRONG LLVL COLD AIR ADVCN. USED A BLEND OF THE OPNL GFS...NAM AND
CANGEM FOR WINDS TDY AND TNGT AND KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV HTS FOR
THIS UPDATE.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED MONDAY FOR BITTERLY COLD GUSTY
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO BE LIKELY. A STORM
SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MAY BRING GALE AND POSSIBLY STORM CONDITIONS OVER THE
WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST MONDAY
     FOR MEZ001>006-010.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-
     010.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ011-015>017-031-032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER

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