Small Craft Advisory 51, NWS Caribou, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
326 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM QUEBEC SATURDAY AND CROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL
FOLLOW ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE REMNANTS OF A LARGE MCS IS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO EXIT INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK ATTM...WITH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TRYING TO DEVELOP ON
THE TAIL END BACK INTO N VT AND NH. THE 3KM HRRR MODEL BRINGS THIS
LINE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...MOVING IT OFFSHORE BY 01Z. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WINDS MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST SECTIONS
WHICH HAVE YET TO BE WORKED OVER BY PRECIPITATION. HEAVY RAIN IS
ALSO POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ACCORDINGLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #667 REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 6 PM. OTHERWISE EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WIND DOWN AFTER 8-9 PM
AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. A FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS HUNG UP OVER NORTHERN
MAINE. THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL STAY HIGH WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO UPPER 60S IN THE INTERIOR
DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT SEPARATING VERY HOT AND HUMID AIR
TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM COOLER AIR OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL HOLD
OVER NE ME FRI. THIS FEATURE WILL ACT AS A FOCUSING FACTOR FOR
MSLY AFTN AND EVE CNVCN FRI...WITH FCST SBCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG
SUPPORTING A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLE SVR TSTMS DURG THIS TM. WILL
INCLUDE ENHANCED TSTMS WORDING IN THE 40+ PERCENT AXIS WITH MAX
POPS IN THE LOW LIKELY RANGE LATE FRI AFTN. DUE TO THE PS OF THE
FRONT...HI TEMPS FRI AFTN WILL RANGE FROM ARND 80 ACROSS THE XTRM
N AND NE...WHERE AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE IS XPCTD TO LOWER 90S OVR
WRN INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS OF THE FA...WHERE POPS WILL BE LOWER
DUE TO GREATER CAPPING ALF AS A RESULT OF WARMER MID LVL TEMPS AND
LESSER LAPSE RATES.

LATE FRI NGT...THE FRONT OVR THE FAR NE PTN OF THE FA BEGIN
LIFTING NEWRD OF THE FA AS A WARM FRONT AS A S/WV AND ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW MOVE E FROM JAMES BAY ONT INTO CNTRL QB. AFT PATCHY LATE
NGT AND ERLY SAT MORN FOG...HI TEMPS SAT SHOULD WARM WELL INTO
THE 80S ACROSS NRN PTNS OF THE FA WHILE DOWNEAST AREAS REACH THE
LOWER 90S UNDER AT LEAST PTLY SUNNY SKIES. TSTMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE BEGINNING SAT AFTN ACROSS NRN PTNS OF THE FA AS A COLD
FRONT APCHS THE FA AS THE SFC LOW MOVES E ACROSS THE GASPE
PENINSULA. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY CONT TO PRODUCE SCT-BKN CVRG
TSTMS AHEAD OF IT INTO EVE AS THE FRONT CROSSES E CNTRL AND THEN
DOWNEAST AREAS OF THE REGION. BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SAT NGT INTO
SUN...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE FA AS STRONG SFC HI
PRES FROM CNTRL CAN MOVES TOWARD THE FA...WITH HI TEMPS SUN AFTN
RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE FOR THIS TO BE A RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING SYSTEM
WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING IN THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THURSDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE
AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. FOR THE FORECAST, USED A BLEND OF GMOS
AND GFS40 FOR SKY AND GMOS FOR TEMPERATURES AND WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THIS
EVENING AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. AREAS
OF FOG WILL DEVELOP TOWARD MIDNIGHT...DROPPING CONDITIONS TO MVFR
NORTH AND IFR/LIFR AT KBGR AND KBHB.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR...XCPT MVFR/IFR ATTMS ERLY FRI MORN FRI
NGT IN PATCHY FOG...AND AFTN/EVE TSTMS FRI AND SAT. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY BY LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 5 TO 6 FEET
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN AT 10-20 KT. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY 1 NM OR LESS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: SCA FOR SEAS IS SLATED TO CONT TIL 22Z FRI
AFTN...AFTER WHICH...SEAS SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE BLO SCA AS WINDS
BECOME MORE OFFSHORE. WIND AND SEAS WILL CONT TO SUBSIDE SAT NGT
THRU MON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...VJN
MARINE...VJN/VJN

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>