Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Caribou, ME

872 
WWUS51 KCAR 122002
SVSCAR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
402 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2011

MEC003-122015-
/O.CON.KCAR.SV.W.0071.000000T0000Z-110712T2015Z/
AROOSTOOK ME-
402 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL AROOSTOOK COUNTY...

AT 354 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR DICKEY...OR NEAR ALLAGASH...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
DEBOULLIE MOUNTAIN...WINTERVILLE AND EAGLE LAKE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER BY CONTACTING YOUR NEAREST LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4673 6891 4719 6942 4738 6921 4729 6903
      4726 6904 4719 6890 4720 6886 4700 6851
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 317DEG 43KT 4700 6906

$$

HASTINGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
222 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN ON THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE ADJUSTED WEATHER GRIDS...SKY CONDITIONS AND POPS. NO OTHER
CHANGES MADE.

CHALLENGE WILL BE THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. RUC INDICATES SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINE UP NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTH OF JAMES BAY STARTS TO STRENGTHEN AND
MOVE EAST. AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY, RUC
CAPE VALUES IMPRESSIVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VALUES BETWEEN 1000 AND
2000 J/KG WITH JUICY DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. HOWEVER,
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH RUC FORECASTING VALUES
LESS THEN 6.0 C/KM ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. SPC HAS DROPPED OUR
AREA FROM THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS BUT WILL KEEP ENHANCED
WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS DUE TO STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW.
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS CLOSER TO THE BEST UPPER DYNAMICS AND HIGHER CAPE VALUES.
LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR MODEL INDICATING POSSIBLE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT TO ENTER NORTHWEST
MAINE AFTER 4PM THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS PANS OUT, THERE COULD BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS PRODUCING STRONG WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY COMBINED WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING BACK FROM LOW PRESSURE IN THE
MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS. THE NAM SEEMS TO HOLD MORE MOISTURE AND SHOWERS BACK
ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE GFS HAS LIGHTER MOISTURE AND ONLY SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE ARE SOME LOW CAPES...BELOW 200 J/KG ON
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH A NORTH WIND BRINGING COOLER AIR IN IT
IS ANTICIPATED ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD BE ISOLATED. TEMPS
WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST AND AWAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY BRINGING SUNSHINE AND SOME
CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN LATE IN THE WEEK IS
EXPECTED TO BRING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS LATE WEEK INTO THE
COMING WEEKEND. FRIDAY WILL BE MODERATELY WARM. A RETURN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WILL THEN BRING INCREASINGLY
HOT AND HUMID AIR INTO THE STATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A
THUNDERSTORM MAY EFFECT SOME AREAS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH...LATE SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DROP AND HUMIDITY
CONTINUES TO INCREASE. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
STORMS MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN. A NEW HIGH WILL THEN
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR MVFR IN FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING AND ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS IN VARIABLE LOW CLOUDS WEDNESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
HAVE ADJUSTED WAVES LOWER AND REMOVED SCA.

NEAR TERM: WNAWAVE GUIDANCE 2 FT ABOVE ACTUAL SEAS THIS MORNING BUT
WILL KEEP MARGINAL SCA FOR SEAS INTO THIS EVENING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
FROM MID WEEK INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
353 AM EDT TUE JUL 12 2011

MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-130800-
NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK-NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK-NORTHERN SOMERSET-
NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN PENOBSCOT-SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK-
CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS-CENTRAL PENOBSCOT-SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT-
INTERIOR HANCOCK-CENTRAL WASHINGTON-COASTAL HANCOCK-
COASTAL WASHINGTON-SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
353 AM EDT TUE JUL 12 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL MAINE...NORTH
CENTRAL MAINE...NORTHERN MAINE...SOUTHEAST MAINE AND WEST CENTRAL
MAINE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ050>052-130800-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EASTPORT ME TO SCHOODIC POINT ME OUT 25 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SCHOODIC POINT ME TO STONINGTON ME OUT 25 NM-
INTRACOASTAL WATERS FROM SCHOODIC POINT ME TO STONINGTON ME-
353 AM EDT TUE JUL 12 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.