Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS Caribou, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
607 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY...THEN SLOWLY CROSS THE GULF
OF MAINE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPDATE: ADDED TSTMS TO THE FCST TONIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST RUC
AND LAPS DATA SHOWING ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING. SBCAPES SHOWN TO
PUSH >800 JOULES THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SECTIONS. INTERESTING HOW THE SWEAT INDEX SHOOTS TO 300+ W/THE
SHOWALTER INDICES HITTING -2. SOME TSTMS COULD BE QUITE STRONG IF
THESE VALUES ARE CORRECT. ATTM...KEPT TSTMS AS GENERAL. WILL
ASSESS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH TONIGHT WITH RESULTING IN SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FROM
THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO STAY TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE NAM12...GFS40
AND SREF FOR POP GRIDS. HAVE USE THE LAMP25 TO DELINEATE THE AREAS
OF FOG TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE NAM12
AND GMOS FOR WINDS. HAVE USE THE GMOS TO INITIALIZE THE
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS. WILL EXTEND THE MAXIMUM/MINIMUM
RANGE. FOR QPF WILL BLEND THE NAM12 AND GFS40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT OVER THE COURSE OF THE
NEAR TERM. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH MULTIPLE LOWS WILL BE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF THE NEAR TERM. THESE
LOW WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. BY MONDAY MORNING
THE PRIMARY LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE...HOWEVER
THE OTHER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EAST OVER EASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK TUESDAY
MORNING ALLOWING A WEAK HIGHER PRESSURE RIDGE TO BRIEFLY BUILD
INTO THE AREA. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER FOR WESTERN MAINE.

LOADED BLENDS OF GFS/NAM/MOS FOR POP/SKY/WNDS. ADDED 20 PERCENT
FOR WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE WATERS...15 PERCENT FOR OVER LAND. USED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS. USED MOS GUIDE FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO START THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
SWINGS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE UPPER TROF WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO
TIME. WILL INCLUDE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS
FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AND CAPES INCREASE. AS THE LAST OF THE
SHORT WAVES MOVES EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE WEST WITH A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER
FOR THE LATE PART OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT IN
SHOWERS AND FOG AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. RAIN EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO A BRIEF PERIOD
TUESDAY MORNING... FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR SKY CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO
PERIODS OF IFR IN PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR WINDS. FOR
WAVES EXPECT SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING
AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY EVENING. EXPECT THIS TO GENERATE LONG
PERIOD WAVE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL USE THE SWAN/NAM FOR
WAVE GRIDS. WILL NOT ISSUE SCA SINCE EXPECT WAVE HEIGHTS TO TOP
OFF AT AROUND 4 FEET.

SHORT TERM: UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH RAIN
MONDAY AND SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SCA.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

NEAR TERM...HEWITT/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE/NORTON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
627 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2011

MEZ001>006-010-072230-
NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK-NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK-NORTHERN SOMERSET-
NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN PENOBSCOT-SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK-
CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS-
627 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL MAINE...NORTH
CENTRAL MAINE...NORTHERN MAINE AND WEST CENTRAL MAINE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...WIND
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY ANY WIND...HAIL OR HEAVY RAINFALL
REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CARIBOU.

MEZ011-015>017-029>032-072230-
CENTRAL PENOBSCOT-SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT-INTERIOR HANCOCK-
CENTRAL WASHINGTON-COASTAL HANCOCK-COASTAL WASHINGTON-
SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
627 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL MAINE...NORTH
CENTRAL MAINE AND SOUTHEAST MAINE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ050>052-070-072230-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EASTPORT ME TO SCHOODIC POINT ME OUT 25 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SCHOODIC POINT ME TO STONINGTON ME OUT 25 NM-
INTRACOASTAL WATERS FROM SCHOODIC POINT ME TO STONINGTON ME-
WATERS FROM EASTPORT ME TO STONINGTON (DEER ISLE) ME FROM 25 TO
40 NM-
627 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

HEWITT