Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Caribou, ME

907 
WGUS71 KCAR 090034
FFSCAR

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
834 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2011

MEC003-090044-
/O.CAN.KCAR.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110609T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
AROOSTOOK ME-
834 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2011

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR NORTHEASTERN
AROOSTOOK COUNTY...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
THURSDAY MORNING FOR NORTHERN MAINE.

LAT...LON 4732 6814 4720 6794 4711 6788 4706 6778
      4680 6778 4681 6786 4708 6898 4731 6851
      4731 6847 4729 6845 4730 6840 4735 6839
      4737 6832

$$

FOSTER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
615 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTH CENTRAL MAINE WILL LIFT SLOWLY BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
ON THURSDAY AND CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED OVER FAR NORTHERN MAINE.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS WARM AIR MOVING
NORTH BENEATH RELATIVELY COOLER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH DOWN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY.
SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS
FRONT. THE STRONGEST STORMS THURSDAY MAY BE DOWNEAST AS THE FRONT
WILL BE REACHING SOUTHERN AREAS JUST AFTER THE MIDDAY HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A LOW
OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTH THROUGH NORTHWESTERN MAINE. SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE STATE
FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
DIMINISH ONCE THE FRONT MOVE INTO THE MARINE AIR...HOWEVER STONG
WINDS AND HAIL MAY PERSIST INTO THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS. A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. BY THURSDAY EVENING THE
FRONT WILL BE ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING INTO NORTHWESTERN MAINE. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
BE BUILT ACROSS MAINE. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...GIVING WAY TO A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED BLENDED NAM/GFS/MOS FOR SKY...POP...WIND...AND CLOUDS.
USED MATCH GUIDANCE FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPS. PLUS 15 PERCENT FOR
GUSTS OVER LAND 20 PERCENT OVER WATER. NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS MOVING IN LATE AT NIGHT. THE GFS CURRENTLY
SHOWS A STRONG...MORE CONSOLIDATED LOW AND THEREFORE A MORE SOLID
AREA OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE
ECMWF SEEMS TO SPLIT THE LOW WITH ONE LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC AND ANOTHER FORMING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH MORE
SPOTTY RAIN. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLOUDY...COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...AT PRESENT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE SYSTEM WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AND BY MID WEEK A RETURN TO RIDGING AND DRY WEATHER
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM:

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIOD OF IFR IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINER OF THE PERIOD. EARLY MORNING FOG
COULD SET UP FOR BHB SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER A SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WILL DIMINISH ONCE THE FRONT MOVE INTO THE MARINE
AIR...HOWEVER STONG WINDS AND HAIL MAY PERSIST INTO THE NEAR SHORE
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

NEAR TERM...HEWITT/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...HEWITT
MARINE...HEWITT/NORTON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
344 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2011

MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-091945-
NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK-NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK-NORTHERN SOMERSET-
NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN PENOBSCOT-SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK-
CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS-CENTRAL PENOBSCOT-SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT-
INTERIOR HANCOCK-CENTRAL WASHINGTON-COASTAL HANCOCK-
COASTAL WASHINGTON-SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
344 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL MAINE...NORTH
CENTRAL MAINE...NORTHERN MAINE...SOUTHEAST MAINE AND WEST CENTRAL
MAINE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
COULD CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THE
STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ050>052-091945-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EASTPORT ME TO SCHOODIC POINT ME OUT 25 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SCHOODIC POINT ME TO STONINGTON ME OUT 25 NM-
INTRACOASTAL WATERS FROM SCHOODIC POINT ME TO STONINGTON ME-
344 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

HEWITT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
508 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2011

MEZ001-002-090015-
NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK-NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALLAGASH...CLAYTON LAKE...MADAWASKA...
FORT KENT...FRENCHVILLE...PRESQUE ISLE...CARIBOU...VAN BUREN...
MARS HILL
508 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2011

...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY OF
NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...

AT 505 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE SAINT JON RIVER VALLEY OF NORTHERN AROOSTOOK MOVING EAST
AT 35 MPH. THROUGH 615 PM EDT....THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT FORT KENT...FRENCHVILLE...MADAWASKA...LILLE AND PERHAPS VAN
BUREN. WIND GUSTS LOCALLY UP TO 45 MPH...HAIL UP TO A THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN SIZE...HEAVY DOWNPOURS UP TO AN INCH PER
HOUR AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE
PASSAGE OF THESE STORMS. IF OUTDOORS...TAKE COVER IN A STURDY
SHELTER IF A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES YOUR AREA.

VJN