Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
422 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN
ANOTHER FRONT COULD BRING THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR TRENDS SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING. THE STORMS WERE FAST
MOVING. THIS MOVEMENT WITH WEAK INSTABILITY SUPPORT STRONG WIND
GUSTS WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WERE SUPPORTING THE SHOWERS. THIS SUPPORT WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEHIND TONIGHTS
COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY. NAM BUFKIT INDICATES 20 TO 25 MPH SURFACE GUSTS POSSIBLE
TO MIX DOWN FROM 30 TO 50 MPH WINDS ALOFT. WINDS MAY GUST HIGHER
ACROSS AREA LAKES AND WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED FOR TOMORROW. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL REACHING THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL LOWER
INTO THE 40S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SO OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL RANGE 10
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN CONTINUED
DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ALONG
THE WEST COAST AND INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST BY TUESDAY RESULTS IN
DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE
GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT DIFFER
ON TIMING AND DEPTH OF THE TROUGH AS IT PUSHES INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. 12Z GFS NOW A LITTLE FASTER AND DEEPER/FARTHER SOUTH WITH
THE CLOSED UPPER TROUGH THAN 00Z EURO MODEL.

WITH MODELS REMAINING IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. IF THE UPPER TROUGH DOES
IN FACT AMPLIFY AS SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTH EAST US MID NEXT WEEK. MODELS/HPC
GUIDANCE INDICATE A COLD/DRY AIRMASS WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR THURSDAY. HIGHS MAY ONLY REACH INTO THE 60S THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CURRENTLY IN PLACE...WITH LITTLE RETURNS ON
RADAR. CIGS CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY TREND HIGHER WITH DIURNAL
HEATING. FRONT AND UPPER ENERGY TO MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
PROVIDE A SHOWER CHANCE...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.
FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE PRECIP CHANCE WITH VCSH...AND
INCLUDE A CB CLOUD GROUP FOR THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY WATCHING A
BATCH OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING RAPIDLY EAST INTO
WEST CENTRAL GA. IF THIS ACTIVITY HOLDS TOGETHER...IT APPEARS IT
WOULD REACH DNL/AGS AROUND 23Z. WILL AMEND A LITTLE LATER IF/WHEN
CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP AFFECTING TAF SITES WARRANTS. EXPECT
CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. BREEZY
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
456 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-142100-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
456 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD
POSSIBLY CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS FRIDAY WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KNOTS. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
714 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0622 PM     TSTM WND DMG     RIDGE SPRING            33.85N 81.66W
10/13/2011                   SALUDA             SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN IN RIDGE SPRING AREA.

0625 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NW JOHNSTON           33.88N 81.86W
10/13/2011                   SALUDA             SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ON ROCKY CREEK ROAD

0654 PM     TSTM WND DMG     10 NNW BATESBURG        34.05N 81.60W
10/13/2011                   SALUDA             SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN NEAR LAKE MURRAY ON MT WILLING RD.

&&

KILMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
726 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0703 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SSE IRMO              34.02N 81.15W
10/13/2011                   LEXINGTON          SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTED TREES DOWN ALONG CORLEY MILL ROAD
            JUST OFF HWY 378.

&&

VAUGHAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
729 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

SCZ035-041-140030-
BAMBERG-BARNWELL-
729 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

...GUSTY WINDS IN PARTS OF BAMBERG AND BARNWELL COUNTIES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR SHOWED PARTS OF BAMBERG COUNTY
AND SOUTHEASTERN BARNWELL COUNTY WILL HAVE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 830 PM.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING.

BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER...AND BE READY TO TAKE
COVER.

LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3305 8112 3312 8120 3310 8131 3315 8150
      3343 8120 3341 8119 3341 8116 3322 8084
      3320 8082 3303 8109
TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 270DEG 31KT 3337 8102 3287 8102

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
739 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

SCZ015-016-022-028-029-031-140100-
CHESTERFIELD-KERSHAW-LANCASTER-LEE-RICHLAND-SUMTER-
739 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

...GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF CHESTERFIELD...KERSHAW...
LANCASTER...LEE...AND SUMTER COUNTIES THROUGH 1000 PM...

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECTS PARTS OF
CHESTERFIELD...KERSHAW...LANCASTER...LEE...AND SUMTER COUNTIES
THROUGH 1000 PM. SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE
WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH...ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING.

YOU SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER...AND BE
READY TO TAKE COVER. LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3449 7989 3449 8005 3436 8028 3433 8023
      3437 8018 3423 8011 3415 8015 3402 7994
      3395 7997 3380 8033 3380 8051 3389 8065
      3430 8081 3438 8077 3450 8089 3507 8091
      3494 8078 3482 8079 3481 7994 3462 7978
TIME...MOT...LOC 2335Z 298DEG 34KT 3453 8057 3364 8114

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