Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
454 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE
SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS PACKAGE OTHER THAN TO
UP POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND THE CSRA FOR CURRENT
COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 90S...EXCEPT IN RAIN
AREAS WHERE TEMPS WILL COOL BRIEFLY INTO THE 80S. HEAT ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN OUT UNTIL 7 PM.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MODERATE INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MAY SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. ALSO...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT LINGERING IN THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE APPEARS TO HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF
THE REGION WITH MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING. CONVERGENCE INTO THE
WEAK FRONT APPEARS WEAK. ALL OF THE MOS INDICATES POPS LESS THAN
20 PERCENT. CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST. THE FRONT APPEARS TO PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
THURSDAY EXCEPT AN INVERTED TROUGH APPEARS TO DEVELOP LATE. ADDED
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BUT THIS SUPPORT APPEARS WEAK. ALL OF THE MOS DISPLAYS
VERY LOW POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAK FRONT OR TROUGH LINGERING NEAR THE
FORECAST AREA DURING MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MODELS SHOW
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS
SUPPORT POPS 20 TO 30 PERCENT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY DURING
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW BY TONIGHT ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THESE FEATURES MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS SO HAVE MENTIONED CB AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THAT TIME
PERIOD. SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WEDNESDAY AT AGS AND OGB...BUT AIR MASS GENERALLY APPEARS DRY ENOUGH
TO DETER WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ016-022-025-
     027>031-035>038-041.
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ065-077.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
702 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-102315-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
702 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
709 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N BROOKDALE           33.54N 80.84W
08/09/2011                   ORANGEBURG         SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN OFF NORTH ST. MATTHEWS RD NEAR
            HWY 601

&&

HC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
714 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0659 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WSW PEAK              34.23N 81.35W
08/09/2011                   NEWBERRY           SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ON MAYER RD. OFF HWY 176

&&

HC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
722 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0711 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNE CHAPIN            34.19N 81.34W
08/09/2011                   LEXINGTON          SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ALONG I-26 NEAR THE 89 MILE
            MARKER WEST BOUND

&&

HC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
729 PM EDT TUE AUG 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GOVAN                   33.22N 81.18W
08/09/2011                   BAMBERG            SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BAMBERG DISPATCH REPORTS SEVERAL TREES AND POWER LINES
            DOWN NEAR HWY 321 IN THE TOWN OF GOVAN.

&&

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
731 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HAIL             1 N CHAPIN              34.19N 81.35W
08/09/2011  U1.50 INCH       LEXINGTON          SC   PUBLIC

            HAIL THE SIZE OF QUARTERS MIXED WITH HAIL
            THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS. TREES ALSO
            DOWNED IN THE YARD.

&&

HC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
735 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011

SCZ027-028-037-100030-
CALHOUN-LEXINGTON-RICHLAND-
735 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF LEXINGTON...RICHLAND
AND CALHOUN COUNTIES THROUGH 830 PM EDT...

AT 730 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...NEAR IRMO...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
COLUMBIA...DENTSVILLE...FOREST
ACRES...GASTON...IRMO...LEXINGTON...OAK GROVE...PINE RIDGE...RED
BANK...SOUTH CONGAREE...SPRINGDALE...ST. ANDREWS...WEST
COLUMBIA...WOODFIELDS...FORT JACKSON AND FIVE POINTS...

PREPARE NOW FOR THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...
STRONG WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...
PEA SIZE HAIL...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REPORT LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS OR FLOODING TO YOUR COUNTY
SHERIFF...OR CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT 1...8 7
7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3400 8064 3396 8063 3370 8103 3370 8106
      3370 8108 3399 8144 3424 8103 3425 8096
      3420 8086 3418 8087 3407 8072 3408 8068
      3402 8061
TIME...MOT...LOC 2334Z 288DEG 14KT 3408 8117

HC