Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1034 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. SLIGHT
COOLING IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MARCH ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME
CELLS REACHING SEVERE LIMITS...WITH THE MAIN REPORTS BEING WIND
DAMAGE. WITH MUCH OF REMAINING AREA SEEING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
INTERSECTING AND INITIATING NEW CONVECTION WILL UPDATE THE
FORECAST TO UP POPS AND CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE CSRA AND CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN MIDLANDS.
OTHER CONCERN WILL BE FOR THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WHERE THE SEA
BREEZE IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO BAMBERG...ORANGEBURG AND CLARENDON
COUNTIES. THIS COULD IGNITE SOME ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL MIDLANDS. WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE TO BETTER REPRESENT THE
CURRENT SITUATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY WEDNESDAY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEGINS TO
MOVE EASTWARD HELPING TO FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE. WILL INCREASE
POPS TO LOW CHANCE MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
STILL QUITE WARM WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S...BUT LOWERING INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY
MAY AGAIN BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY SLOWLY MOVING EAST. TROPICAL MOISTURE
MAY BEGIN TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE
WEEK AS WELL. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY
BUT MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING
THROUGH OUR AREA...POSSIBLY STALLING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL
CONTINUE THE MENTION OF CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE MIDLANDS INCLUDING CAE/CUB
AS OF 22/03Z. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS FEATURE SMALL
HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 50 KNTS WITH CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING. CSRA IS
CLEAR NOW BUT WILL MONITOR FOR ANOTHER BATCH TO MOVE OVER SITES IN
THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. OGB MAY JUST SEE STORMS BRUSH TO THE NORTH.

THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO FOG TOMORROW MORNING BUT
WITH CURRENT STORM ACTIVITY HAVE INCLUDED IT INTO AGS/OGB SITES
WHERE NAM MOS HAS INDICATED BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG. WINDS PICK
UP AFTER 22/18Z FROM THE WEST- SOUTHWEST. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT OUT CB
MENTION IN TAFS FOR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO
TIMING/LOCATION OF UPPER TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE WEST AND
UNCERTAINTY IN STORM COVERAGE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION
IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...SMITH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
651 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-222300-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
651 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1216 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

SCZ027-028-036-037-220500-
CALHOUN-LEXINGTON-ORANGEBURG-RICHLAND-
1216 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF LEXINGTON...
RICHLAND...AIKEN...CALHOUN AND ORANGEBURG COUNTIES THROUGH 100 AM
EDT...

AT 1213 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PINE RIDGE TO 7
MILES WEST OF LIVINGSTON...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
CAYCE...COLUMBIA...FOREST ACRES...GASTON...OAK GROVE...PINE RIDGE...
SOUTH CONGAREE...SPRINGDALE...WEST COLUMBIA...FORT JACKSON AND FIVE
POINTS...

PREPARE NOW FOR THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...
PEA SIZE HAIL...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

REPORT LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS OR FLOODING TO YOUR COUNTY
SHERIFF...OR CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT 1...8 7
7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3350 8132 3355 8131 3364 8119 3367 8121
      3369 8126 3400 8114 3408 8073 3407 8072
      3408 8069 3360 8085
TIME...MOT...LOC 0416Z 248DEG 21KT 3393 8105 3355 8123