Severe Thunderstorm Warning 263, NWS Columbia, SC

139 
WWUS52 KCAE 222016
SVSCAE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
416 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2011

SCC063-222025-
/O.CAN.KCAE.SV.W.0263.000000T0000Z-110822T2030Z/
LEXINGTON SC-
416 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR LEXINGTON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

REPORT LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS OR FLOODING TO YOUR COUNTY
SHERIFF...OR CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT 1...8 7
7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

LAT...LON 3362 8132 3366 8130 3368 8125 3365 8118
      3369 8110 3360 8093 3346 8126
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 319DEG 14KT 3357 8115

$$

SCC003-075-222030-
/O.CON.KCAE.SV.W.0263.000000T0000Z-110822T2030Z/
AIKEN SC-ORANGEBURG SC-
416 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT
FOR ORANGEBURG AND AIKEN COUNTIES...

AT 410 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS 
LOCATED NEAR LIVINGSTON AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO NEESES

REPORT LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS OR FLOODING TO YOUR COUNTY
SHERIFF...OR CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT 1...8 7
7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

LAT...LON 3362 8132 3366 8130 3368 8125 3365 8118
      3369 8110 3360 8093 3346 8126
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 319DEG 14KT 3357 8115

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
155 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
TUESDAY. TROPICAL SYSTEM IRENE COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION BY
THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN MIDLANDS...DRIER
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE PIEDMONT WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS...STRONGLY UNSTABLE EAST MIDLANDS. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE LOW COUNTRY INTO THE SOUTHEAST
MIDLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. EXPECT MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND LOW
POPS LOOKS GOOD. WITH DRIER AIR OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS/MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...STAYED CLOSE TO COOLER MOS CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SITUATION WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NORTH
OF THE AREA BEGINS TO SLIDE EASTWARD. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD THE COAST. WILL
SEE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN MIDLANDS AND
SOUTHERN CSRA AS THE DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION WILL BE SLOW TO BE
OVERCOME. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE AROUND 90 WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED ON
THE TRACK OF TS IRENE AND ITS POSSIBLE IMPACTS TO THE FORECAST
AREA. LATEST 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO BE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS
AND BRING IRENE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THURSDAY AND NEAR THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY. THE LATEST GFS HAS A LANDFALL NEAR
SAVANNAH WHILE THE LATEST ECMWF KEEPS THE STORM OFF THE COAST AND
MAKES LANDFALL AT THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA. THERE IS
LIKELY TO BE SOME CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF IRENE...BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT IT
WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA AND BRING RAINFALL SOMETIME
DURING THE WEEKEND. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH LIKELY POPS ON SATURDAY. ALSO ADJUSTED THE WIND GRIDS
A BIT IN ANTICIPATION OF INCREASED WINDS RESULTING FROM THE
PROXIMITY OF IRENE THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...MAY NEED TO LOW POPS
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THERE IS MORE CERTAINTY WITH IRENE
AS THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF SUBSIDENCE IN
ADVANCE OF IRENE...SUPPRESSING ALL CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK
OF IRENE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EAST OF OGB THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOST
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE COAST. EXTENDED AVIATION
OUTLOOK...MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR IN EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS AS WELL AS IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION TUESDAY
AND AGAIN BY FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE MODERATE FOR NO SIGNIFICANT FOG
FORMATION TONIGHT...SOME MIXING EXPECTED AND DRIER AIR FILTERING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. BUT LAMP HAS BRIEF MVFR AT OGB/AGS AROUND 12Z.
VFR FORECAST FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR IN
EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS AS WELL AS IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION TUESDAY AND AGAIN BY FRIDAY.
&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
505 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2011

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-230915-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
505 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN
GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN ISSUE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

HURRICANE IRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE STORM COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY THIS WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH IT IS
STILL TOO SOON TO DETERMINE IF IRENE WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT THE
REGION...PEOPLE ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN GEORGIA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO CAREFULLY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS STORM
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.