Severe Thunderstorm Warning 147, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1027 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STALL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY MID- WEEK...WHILE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED...BUT STILL ABOVE 90 DEGREES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WEAK BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROUGH NOW DRAPED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
STATE CLOSELY PARALLELING INTERSTATE 95.

SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE TN VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH AN SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL ALLOW ISOLATED CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING. BUT DRIER AIR IS FILTERING IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WHICH
WILL ACT AS A LIMITING FACTOR. A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORM CELLS NOW
IN THE CAE VCNTY MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN FOR THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORKING IN ON NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH BRINGING A NORTHEAST FLOW
AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WEAK FRONT WILL STILL
REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF REGION...WITH SOME
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TRYING TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE NORTH.

THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW.  KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
DUE TO DRIER AIR MASS IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS IN THE MID-LEVELS. POPS WILL INCREASE INTO WEDNESDAY AS
ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS SOME. MODELS INDICATING SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
THE TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH COULD LEAD TO
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THEN FURTHER EAST
INTO THE MIDLANDS. BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP WOULD APPEAR TO BE
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AS POSSIBLE MCS MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
THURSDAY SHOULD STILL SEE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
REGION...ALONG WITH LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. RAIN CHANCES NOT
AS GREAT ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...BUT WILL STILL
INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS FOR THE DAY AND EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST...THE EAST COAST TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN US DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  AT THE SURFACE...A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH WILL BE
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION EACH DAY AS A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW.  AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...AFTERNOON HIGHS EACH DAY WILL EASILY CLIMB INTO THE
LOW TO MID 90S...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS AVERAGE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR
MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.

SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPSTATE
WILL PROBABLY NOT MOVE INTO THE MIDLANDS LATER THIS EVENING.
THEREFORE WILL REMOVE MENTION OF CB FROM TAFS. NOT EXPECTING
SIGNIFICANT FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT DUE TO MIXING CAUSED BY A LOW
LEVEL JET. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE 00Z-04Z
TIME FRAME AND THEN BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS. GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY WITH
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WORKING IN...YIELDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING FOG AS WELL AS DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
347 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2011

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-141000-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
347 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
956 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2011

SCZ027-028-140245-
LEXINGTON-RICHLAND-
956 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF LEXINGTON AND
RICHLAND COUNTIES THROUGH 1045 PM EDT...

AT 947 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...NEAR ST. ANDREWS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
ARCADIA LAKES...CAYCE...COLUMBIA...DENTSVILLE...FOREST ACRES...
IRMO...OAK GROVE...SPRINGDALE...ST. ANDREWS...WEST COLUMBIA...
WOODFIELDS...FORT JACKSON AND FIVE POINTS...

PREPARE NOW FOR THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...
PEA SIZE HAIL...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REPORT LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS OR FLOODING TO YOUR COUNTY
SHERIFF...OR CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT 1...8 7
7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3382 8086 3382 8091 3388 8100 3388 8102
      3408 8127 3421 8111 3421 8110 3423 8106
      3402 8066
TIME...MOT...LOC 0155Z 313DEG 16KT 3407 8108

AWP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1152 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2011

SCZ022-028-031-037-038-140500-
CALHOUN-CLARENDON-KERSHAW-RICHLAND-SUMTER-
1152 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF KERSHAW...LEE...
RICHLAND...CALHOUN...SUMTER...CLARENDON AND ORANGEBURG COUNTIES
THROUGH 100 AM EDT...

AT 1150 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LUGOFF TO SAINT
MATTHEWS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
OAKLAND...CAMDEN...EASTOVER...LUGOFF...MILLWOOD...MULBERRY...SOUTH
SUMTER...SUMMERTON AND SUMTER...

PREPARE NOW FOR THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...
PEA SIZE HAIL...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REPORT LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS OR FLOODING TO YOUR COUNTY
SHERIFF...OR CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT 1...8 7
7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3353 8016 3351 8046 3355 8049 3353 8050
      3355 8058 3350 8061 3350 8068 3425 8092
      3426 8083 3436 8049 3422 8044 3416 8047
      3411 8047 3409 8039
TIME...MOT...LOC 0351Z 295DEG 14KT 3422 8071 3366 8064