Severe Thunderstorm Warning 141, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
724 PM EDT THU JUN  9 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AS WELL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH BY MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE AS OF 520 PM: PULSE-TYPE THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP MAINLY
ACROSS THE UPSTATE WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MIDLANDS. NEAR TERM POPS LOOK REASONABLE AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVING VERY SLOWLY. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
BY AROUND SUNSET. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A LEE TROUGH HAS SET UP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS...BENEATH THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE.
CONVECTION ALREADY ONGOING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO CENTRAL
GEORGIA WHILE SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EXCEPT FOR SOME OLD CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS IN THE CSRA. DESPITE
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
SURFACE THROUGH 700MB...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY
HIGH AND THERE IS NOT MUCH FORCING FOR CONVECTION. WINDS ALOFT ARE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KTS UP THROUGH 300MB SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
MOVEMENT FROM STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE UPSTATE. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP SHOULD BE PULSE IN NATURE AND NEW DEVELOPMENT WOULD LIKELY
OCCUR ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE MAINLY WEST OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR
LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MODELS INDICATE
CONVECTION EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO THE MIDLANDS LATE EVENING BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF SMOKE AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR BETWEEN CAE AND AGS AND WITH
LITTLE WIND FLOW AND MIXING EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE ON FRIDAY WITH YET
ANOTHER 90 DEGREE DAY EXPECTED AND MAINLY ISOLATED CHANCES OF
CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING REMAINS INTO FRIDAY.  WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON CARRYING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANGE ACROSS THE WEST FOR
A FEW HOURS...THEN BECOMING A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.  MOVING INTO SATURDAY...RIDGE TRIED TO MOVE
EAST AS LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN IN THE GULF BEGINS TO MOVE
NORTH.  MOISTURE MAY BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN
AREAS...SO BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
UPSTATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S DURING THE AFTERNOONS...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN SOME ON SUNDAY...AND INTO
MONDAY...AS TROUGH PATTERN TRIES TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE EAST. DO
EXPECT A WEAK FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR PRECIP ALONG WITH IT.   TROUGH PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  IN GENERAL...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
TEMPS FOR THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70.
POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE ISOLATED CATEGORY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR VSBYS CAE/CUB/DNL DUE TO HAZE/FOG THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS INTO FRIDAY. AN ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE BUT HAVE
NOT INCLUDED IN FORECAST DUE TO LOW PROBABILITY. GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS WITH SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE AREA. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. ONLY CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO FORECAST MVFR VSBYS
AT AGS/OGB ATTM. COULD SEE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. CLOUD BASES ABOVE 5000 FEET.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...AREAS OF MVFR OR IFR FOG POSSIBLE DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
401 AM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-100815-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
401 AM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.