Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
810 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
SUNDAY AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE MIDLANDS FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN THROUGH 10 AM AS THEY MOVE NORTH. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR
THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL MIDLANDS. LOW
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BLANKET THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY.
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. PW
VALUES AROUND 1.75 INCH. AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES 87/88
DEGREES. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE LOWER 90S WITH 30-40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WEAK FRONT EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OVERNIGHT AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR APPROACHES
SUNDAY AND MOVES THROUGH MONDAY. A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY WITH POPS 40-50 PERCENT. THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND ON TO THE
EAST FOR MONDAY. WILL END CHANCE POPS BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES 'A
BIT COOLER SUNDAY WITH CLOUD COVER...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. MORE
SUN MONDAY WITH DRIER AIR AND HIGHS BACK UP INTO THE LOWER 90S BUT
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S SHOULD GIVE
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW 95 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRIER AIR MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.
THE FRONT APPEARS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY WITH DRY
RIDGING DOMINATING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SOME MOISTURE RECOVERY
WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER IN THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ISOLATED POPS THROUGH MID-WEEK AND
MAINLY LOW CHANCE POPS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY
AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
88D SHOWS SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN MIDLANDS THIS
MORNING. DEVELOPMENT BEING ENHANCED BY SOME LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC
LIFT THAT SHOULD SHIFT NORTH OF CAE/CUB BY 13Z.

SATELLITE AND OBS SHOW PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG ACROSS THE
AREA. MANY TAF SITES INDICATING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THOUGH MID/LATE MORNING AND A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 14Z-15Z. THERE LOOKS TO BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND AIRMASS
BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT BEST CHANCE
FOR POPS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FOR
NOW WILL MENTION CB IN CLOUD GROUP FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS/LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME MVFR/IFR IN LOW
CLOUDS/FOG ALONG WITH SHRA/TSRA

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN
PATCHY MORNING FOG AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MONDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
506 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-140906-
AIKEN-BAMBERG-BARNWELL-BURKE-CALHOUN-CHESTERFIELD-CLARENDON-COLUMBIA-
EDGEFIELD-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-LANCASTER-LEE-LEXINGTON-LINCOLN-MCCORMICK-
MCDUFFIE-NEWBERRY-ORANGEBURG-RICHLAND-RICHMOND-SALUDA-SUMTER-
506 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MIDLANDS OF SOUTH CAROLINA
AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA OF GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
835 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

SCZ015-016-022-028-029-031-131330-
CHESTERFIELD-KERSHAW-LANCASTER-LEE-RICHLAND-SUMTER-
835 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CHESTERFIELD...
KERSHAW...LANCASTER...LEE...RICHLAND AND SUMTER COUNTIES THROUGH 930
AM EDT...

AT 833 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE NORTHEAST MIDLANDS.
THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS THEY MOVE
NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
OAKLAND...BISHOPVILLE...CAMDEN...CHERAW...CHESTERFIELD...LUGOFF...
MILLWOOD...MULBERRY...SOUTH SUMTER AND SUMTER...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN
URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

REPORT LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS OR FLOODING TO YOUR COUNTY
SHERIFF...OR CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT 1...8 7
7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3454 7983 3449 7990 3449 8005 3436 8028
      3433 8023 3437 8017 3423 8011 3420 8011
      3416 8015 3409 8008 3407 8002 3401 7998
      3377 8056 3426 8087 3428 8082 3436 8078
      3482 8030 3481 7994 3468 7986 3462 7978
TIME...MOT...LOC 1231Z 228DEG 6KT 3435 8057