Fire Weather Watch 1, NWS Columbia, SC

Burke County, GA, Columbia County, GA, Lincoln County, GA, McDuffie County, GA, Richmond County, GA, Aiken County, SC, Bamberg County, SC, Barnwell County, SC, Calhoun County, SC, Chesterfield County, SC, Clarendon County, SC, Edgefield County, SC, Fairfield County, SC, Kershaw County, SC, Lee County, SC, Lexington County, SC, McCormick County, SC, Newberry County, SC, Richland County, SC, Saluda County, SC, Sumter County, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1256 PM EST SUN FEB 20 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TODAY...THEN SHIFT SE
MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AGAIN WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER FORECAST...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATING
THAT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A DEGREE DUE TO
THE CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO DEW POINTS.

UPDATE...TEMPERATURES ARE RISING A LITTLE FASTER THAN FORECAST
DUE TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. UPDATED FORECAST TO
INCREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR 2 ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING BEFORE THINNING OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LOWERED DEW
POINT TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE GRIDDED
FORECAST AND MODIFIED THE WINDS AS WELL. NAM GUIDANCE IS
FAVORED...MOST REPRESENTATIVE OF CURRENT CONDITIONS.

UPDATE...SATELLITE INDICATES
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS DEVELOPMENT...DUE TO SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
AN UPPER IMPULSE...MORE PROMINENT THAT EARLIER THOUGHT. UPDATED
SKY COVER AND TEMP TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH...NOSING SOUTH INTO
OUR REGION. STALLED FRONT/DEWPOINT GRADIENT JUST TO OUR SOUTH.
HIGH WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY SE TODAY...WITH GRADUALLY VEERING WINDS.
WENT WITH LOWER NAM MOS DEWPOINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH TO OUR SOUTH WITH UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST ALONG
THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. SURFACE HIGH TO SHIFT SE...WHILE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH...EVENTUALLY
DRAGGING A FRONT THROUGH HERE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN UP CONSIDERABLY...WITH
INDICATIONS OF BREEZY CONDITIONS MONDAY. TOO EARLY TO ISSUE A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY...BUT ONE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. FRONT WILL HAVE
LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS AND ONGOING
FORECAST PROVIDES A SLIGHT CHANCE POP.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE LESS
AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN US. THIS WILL KEEP THE STORM TRACK NORTH OF THE
AREA WITH THE ONLY CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVING THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.
MODELS HAVE CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR THE SYSTEM AT THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH THE ECMWF HAVING A MUCH DEEPER LOW MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER
DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM AND KEEPS THE TRACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS ATTM WILL REMAIN WITH LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE LONG
TERM NEAR NORMAL THEN WARM TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLIDING EAST OF THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHWEST FLOW TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
MONDAY. OVER RUNNING CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MID LEVEL DECK...LOWERING OVERNIGHT TO MVFR BY
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE MONDAY
MORNING. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH 50 KTS AT 850 MBS OVER NORTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA AT THAT TIME. THIS WILL SET UP LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS
THE HIGH PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. INCLUDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
IN ALL OF THE TERMINAL FORECASTS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF VERY LOW CEILINGS
MONDAY MORNING...BUT WITH RELATIVE HUMIDIFIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS BEGINNING TO MIX DOWN BY THEN...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME SO IT WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE
TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL MIX DOWN LATER MONDAY GIVING MOST AREAS BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS LATE MONDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SC FORESTRY COMMISSION MAINTAINS A RED FLAG FIRE ALERT FOR THE NE
PART OF THE CAE CWA...PEE DEE...AND NORTH COAST. WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG TODAY...AND WILL VEER FROM NE TO E TO SE
DURING THE DAY. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH RH VALUES
FALLING TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT...THOUGH SOME DEWPOINT AND RH RECOVERY
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TIER
OF THE FA AS WINDS BECOME SE. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...WITH BREEZY SW WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH WIND GUSTS
AROUND 30 MPH. THE SW WINDS WILL BRING WARM TEMPS BUT ALSO ALLOW
FOR SOME DEWPOINT RECOVERY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT MONDAY. SO...METEOROLOGICAL CRITERIA
FOR RED FLAG WARNING NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
601 AM EST SUN FEB 20 2011

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-211115-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
601 AM EST SUN FEB 20 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.