Winter Storm Warning 5, NWS Billings, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1108 PM MDT TUE MAR 15 2011

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR LIVINGSTON HITTING CRITERIA LAST HOUR.
ISSUED WIND ADVISORY TO COVER THE I90 CORRIDOR FROM SPRINGDALE TO
LIVINGSTON. GAP WINDS SHOULD DECREASE WITH THE PACIFIC FRONTAL
PASSAGE AROUND 6 AM AS DOWNWARD MOTION AND STABLE LAYER AT
MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL DECREASE. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AS
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE MOST PART.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION BRINGING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES. DID
RAISE TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES AS A RESULT.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL
BRING A SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE REGION. SOME WEAK ENERGY MOVES
THROUGH THE FLOW BUT OVERALL MODELS KEEP IT FAIRLY DRY AS THE
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE AREA OR WELL
SOUTH. DID RAISE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES DURING THIS PERIOD AS
WELL.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES IN
BRINGING AGAIN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. DID KEEP POPS
IN FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO REMOVE THEM IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.
ALSO BUMPED UP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES HERE AS WELL.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW
SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS WYOMING
AND INTO THE MIDWEST WHILE BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF BILLINGS. MODELS
DO SHOW THIS MOSTLY BEING ALL SNOW SO THIS WOULD BE A POTENTIAL
SNOW STORM IF IT PANS OUT. IT IS STILL A WAYS OUT BUT WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS IT GETS CLOSER...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
FLOODING CONCERNS EAST OF BILLINGS. DID BUMP UP POPS SLIGHTLY AS
A RESULT OF THIS. SOLUM

&&

.AVIATION...

MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH WED. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS WILL EXTEND INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
BY EARLY WED CAUSING LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS. STRONG GUSTY W/SW
WINDS ACROSS THE WEST WILL WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE W OR NW ACROSS THE REGION BY MID DAY WED AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. STC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 038/058 031/048 028/055 030/055 032/049 028/048 030/050
    26/W    32/W    20/B    01/B    22/R    22/R    23/R
LVM 037/050 025/043 026/052 031/053 031/046 027/047 031/050
    66/W    33/W    20/B    02/R    32/O    22/R    23/R
HDN 032/057 030/050 027/060 029/059 030/052 027/051 028/052
    16/W    42/W    20/B    01/B    22/R    22/R    23/R
MLS 032/054 030/048 026/047 025/050 029/044 024/042 024/040
    14/W    42/W    10/B    01/B    22/O    22/O    33/S
4BQ 031/056 031/049 027/056 029/057 031/051 027/047 026/048
    03/W    53/W    20/B    01/B    22/R    22/R    33/O
BHK 029/052 027/046 026/047 024/048 029/044 024/040 021/037
    03/W    53/W    10/B    01/B    32/O    22/O    33/S
SHR 033/056 029/044 024/053 028/057 030/049 026/049 027/050
    04/W    64/W    30/B    01/B    22/R    22/R    23/R

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MDT WEDNESDAY FOR
      ZONES 56-66.
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR ZONE 65.
WY...NONE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS