Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Billings, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
616 PM MDT WED JUN 15 2011

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

UPDATED FORECAST TONIGHT TO INCREASE POPS OVER WESTERN ZONES.
ALREADY RAINING IN LIVINGSTON AND HARLOWTON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AS FAR EAST AS A ROUNDUP TO COLUMBUS LINE. A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THESE AREAS AS WELL. LATEST MODEL
PROGS WILL PULL PRECIPITATION TO A BAKER TO SHERIDAN LINE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
FROM WHEATLAND TO CUSTER. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY OR BETTER FOR
THESE AREAS TRAILING OFF TO ISOLATED POPS OVER SOUTHERN ZONES.
LATEST MODELS ALSO SHOWING STRONG SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. INCREASED POPS FOR THESE
PERIODS TO LIKELY OR BETTER OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
WEAKEST POPS FROM LIVINGSTON TO HARLOWTON. MODELS SHOWING
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS RANGING FROM AN INCH TO 1.3 INCHES FROM
A ROUNDUP TO BILLINGS LINE EAST TOMORROW NIGHT. AS A RESULT
INCREASED QPF SUBSTANTIALLY AND ADDED MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WILL TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK AT THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST AROUND 9 PM. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY UNSETTLED WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. UPPER LOW AND TROUGH THAT WILL BE
AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE
TO REMAIN IN PLACE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY RESULTING IN CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST
AGREEMENT ONCE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE GFS IS BACKING
OFF ON PRECIP AMOUNTS...WHEREAS THE ECMWF KEEPS FAIRLY HIGH QPF
AMOUNTS ACROSS ARE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES. IN ANY
CASE...BELIEVE HIGH CHANCES FOR PRECIP STILL LOOK GOOD SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH RIDING BUILDING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT AN UNSETTLED NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HOOLEY

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL ROUTES THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS TO THE AREA. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE NORTH OF BILLINGS...INCLUDING K3HT...KMLS...AND
KBHK. LOCALIZED MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
PRECIPITATION. RNL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 047/068 046/068 049/075 050/070 049/069 047/068 050/074
    53/T    84/T    22/T    34/T    44/T    33/T    23/T
LVM 042/063 039/065 041/071 044/065 043/065 041/066 044/074
    74/T    64/T    33/T    46/T    64/T    22/T    23/T
HDN 048/071 049/071 050/079 050/074 049/073 047/075 050/079
    43/T    85/T    22/T    34/T    44/T    33/T    23/T
MLS 051/071 050/067 049/076 052/073 052/071 049/069 051/073
    53/T    87/T    22/T    34/T    44/T    34/T    23/T
4BQ 050/072 052/069 051/078 052/074 051/071 048/072 050/076
    22/T    86/T    23/T    34/T    44/T    33/T    24/T
BHK 051/070 051/066 048/075 051/074 051/069 049/070 048/075
    33/T    88/T    22/T    44/T    44/T    44/T    22/T
SHR 046/066 046/067 045/074 047/070 047/068 044/068 047/074
    23/T    83/T    23/T    44/T    46/T    43/T    23/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
334 PM MDT WED JUN 15 2011

MTZ028>042-056>058-063>068-WYZ098-099-162145-
SOUTHERN WHEATLAND-MUSSELSHELL-TREASURE-NORTHERN ROSEBUD-CUSTER-
FALLON-NORTHERN STILLWATER-YELLOWSTONE-POWDER RIVER-CARTER-
SOUTHERN BIG HORN-EASTERN CARBON-NORTHERN PARK-
NORTHERN SWEET GRASS-GOLDEN VALLEY-RED LODGE FOOTHILLS-
NORTHERN BIG HORN-SOUTHERN ROSEBUD-JUDITH GAP-PARADISE VALLEY-
LIVINGSTON AREA-BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS-ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS-
CRAZY MOUNTAINS-NORTHEAST BIG HORN MOUNTAINS-SHERIDAN FOOTHILLS-
334 PM MDT WED JUN 15 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MONTANA...SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA...SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MUSSELSHELL RIVER IN MUSSELSHELL
COUNTY...AS WELL AS ALONG THE TONGUE RIVER NEAR BIRNEY. THE
YELLOWSTONE RIVER WILL RISE TO FLOOD STAGE IN FORSYTH OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

FLOODING ALONG THE MUSSELSHELL RIVER IN MUSSELSHELL COUNTY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER AT MILES
CITY IS EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE ON FRIDAY. FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER AT LIVINGSTON BEGINNING ON
THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FLOODING AT
MILES CITY AND FORSYTH ON THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER...AND AT BIRNEY ON
THE TONGUE RIVER...WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM BILLINGS EAST THURSDAY NIGHT
DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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