Severe Thunderstorm Warning 26, NWS Billings, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
230 PM MDT SUN JUN 12 2011

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

ISSUED AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE A BIT EARLY TO ADD A TORNADO
WATCH TO THE FOUR EASTERN ZONES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. FORCING FOR ASCENT
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY/SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN
MONTANA. LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. A SECOND WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY INTO THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. BRS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ON
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE LATE WEEK UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE NORTHERLY TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL KEEP THE STRONGEST FORCING AND HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION NORTH
OF THE CWA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEAR
TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. MODELS FALL OUT OF AGREEMENT FOR SATURDAY AND
BEYOND. THEREFORE...KEPT POPS AROUND CLIMATOLOGY FOR DAYS 7 AND
8. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. BRS

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE OVER
FAR SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA. TERMINALS IMPACTED INCLUDE KMLS AND
KBHK. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. BRS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 050/073 051/070 050/075 051/072 048/069 047/069 046/064
    23/T    32/T    11/B    22/T    53/T    33/T    33/T
LVM 044/069 045/067 045/071 045/069 044/065 043/065 042/062
    23/T    43/T    11/B    24/T    53/T    33/T    33/T
HDN 050/076 051/071 050/078 050/074 048/072 047/072 046/066
    32/T    32/T    11/B    22/T    53/T    33/T    33/T
MLS 052/076 053/070 052/075 052/074 051/071 049/072 048/069
    42/T    42/T    21/B    22/T    54/T    33/T    33/T
4BQ 052/077 053/071 051/075 052/074 050/073 048/075 049/069
    32/T    43/T    11/B    22/T    54/T    33/T    33/T
BHK 052/074 053/069 050/073 050/072 049/070 047/072 047/070
    52/T    44/T    22/T    22/T    54/T    33/T    33/T
SHR 047/073 049/067 047/075 049/071 046/069 044/071 044/065
    33/T    33/T    11/B    22/T    44/T    33/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...TORNADO WATCH 468 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
      ZONES 32-33-36-37.
WY...NONE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
503 AM MDT SUN JUN 12 2011

MTZ028>042-056>058-063>068-WYZ098-099-131115-
SOUTHERN WHEATLAND-MUSSELSHELL-TREASURE-NORTHERN ROSEBUD-CUSTER-
FALLON-NORTHERN STILLWATER-YELLOWSTONE-POWDER RIVER-CARTER-
SOUTHERN BIG HORN-EASTERN CARBON-NORTHERN PARK-
NORTHERN SWEET GRASS-GOLDEN VALLEY-RED LODGE FOOTHILLS-
NORTHERN BIG HORN-SOUTHERN ROSEBUD-JUDITH GAP-PARADISE VALLEY-
LIVINGSTON AREA-BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS-ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS-
CRAZY MOUNTAINS-NORTHEAST BIG HORN MOUNTAINS-SHERIDAN FOOTHILLS-
503 AM MDT SUN JUN 12 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MONTANA...SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA...SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH
STORMS INTENSIFYING AS THEY APPROACH SOUTHEAST MONTANA. STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO
ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MUSSELSHELL RIVER FROM WHEATLAND
TO MUSSELSHELL COUNTY. FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE ALONG THE
YELLOWSTONE FROM NEAR FORSYTH TO MILES CITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.
SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF WILL KEEP AREA RIVERS RUNNING HIGH. PEOPLE
WITH INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS SHOULD STAY ALERT FOR RISING
WATER LEVELS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
517 PM MDT SUN JUN 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             8 NNE POWDERVILLE       45.86N 105.04W
06/12/2011  E1.00 INCH       CUSTER             MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BRS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
522 PM MDT SUN JUN 12 2011

MTZ029-035-042-130015-
GOLDEN VALLEY MT-MUSSELSHELL MT-YELLOWSTONE MT-
522 PM MDT SUN JUN 12 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GOLDEN VALLEY...
CENTRAL YELLOWSTONE AND SOUTHERN MUSSELSHELL COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM
MDT...

AT 514 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF BILLINGS...MOVING EAST AT
20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN. THE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AS WELL AS QUICK WATER
RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT...
COMANCHE AND ACTON THROUGH 535 PM MDT...RURAL AREAS OF NORTHERN
YELLOWSTONE AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MUSSELSHELL COUNTY THROUGH 620 PM
MDT.

LAT...LON 4627 10816 4591 10809 4588 10885 4622 10890
TIME...MOT...LOC 2318Z 269DEG 19KT 4604 10875

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
533 PM MDT SUN JUN 12 2011

MTZ033-037-130030-
CARTER MT-FALLON MT-
533 PM MDT SUN JUN 12 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN FALLON AND NORTHERN
CARTER COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM MDT...

AT 531 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES WEST OF EKALAKA...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
EKALAKA AROUND 545 PM MDT.
MILL IRON AROUND 610 PM MDT.
WEBSTER AROUND 615 PM MDT.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY....AND A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS
LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS....FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4581 10480 4598 10482 4610 10405 4610 10404
      4607 10403 4590 10403 4582 10404
TIME...MOT...LOC 2333Z 263DEG 28KT 4590 10468

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
544 PM MDT SUN JUN 12 2011

MTZ035-057-130045-
NORTHERN BIG HORN MT-YELLOWSTONE MT-
544 PM MDT SUN JUN 12 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN BIG HORN AND EASTERN
YELLOWSTONE COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM MDT...

AT 537 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF BILLINGS
TO 5 MILES SOUTH OF BILLINGS...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN. THE HEAVY RAIN
WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND QUICK RISES ON SMALL
STREAMS AND CREEKS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
SHEPHERD AROUND 545 PM MDT.
HUNTLEY AROUND 550 PM MDT.
WORDEN AROUND 600 PM MDT.
BALLANTINE AROUND 605 PM MDT.
CORINTH AROUND 615 PM MDT.

LAT...LON 4624 10763 4555 10754 4567 10859 4586 10848
      4610 10851
TIME...MOT...LOC 2340Z 267DEG 28KT 4591 10835

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