Red Flag Warning 7, NWS Billings, MT

746 
WWUS85 KBYZ 290222
RFWBYZ

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
822 PM MDT WED SEP 28 2011

MTZ133-290330-
/O.CAN.KBYZ.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-110929T0300Z/
SIOUX RANGER DISTRICT CUSTER NATIONAL FOREST-
822 PM MDT WED SEP 28 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR LOW HUMIDITIES AND STRONG
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND PARTS OF
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BILLINGS HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 

ALTHOUGH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING...HUMIDITIES HAVE RISEN ABOVE 30 PERCENT.
THEREFORE...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER
EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
 

$$

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
324 AM MDT WED SEP 28 2011

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING STEADILY S THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING AND FROM NEAR A KLVM TO KBIL TO KMLS LINE AT 09Z. A
FEW LOCATIONS EXPERIENCED A GUSTY N OR NW WIND SHIFT WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AREAS OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ACCOMPANIED THE 700
MB FRONT PER SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR SHOWED NO PRECIPITATION.
MAIN CONCERN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY WILL BE WIND. MIXING
HEIGHTS WILL BE BETWEEN 800 AND 700 MB PER MODEL SOUNDINGS WHICH
WILL ALLOW 15 TO 25 KT WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE
STRONGEST OF THESE WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
USHER IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...BUT THESE
VALUES WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT DURING THE DAY DUE TO INSOLATION AND
MIXING. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 70S. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL END UP IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRONG WINDS IN SE MT...WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR FIRE ZONE 133 FROM 18Z TODAY TO 03Z TONIGHT.

SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TODAY...WILL PUSH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
TONIGHT ALLOWING AN UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. THE RIDGE
WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CHALLENGING FOR THU AS THE GFS WAS WARMER THAN THE WRF...BUT BOTH
MODELS HAD A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION AND E FLOW. IT WILL BE COOLER THAN
TODAY...BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH COOLER IT WILL
BE...HAVE LEFT THE GOING TEMPERATURE FORECAST ALONE. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

FRIDAY RETURNS THE WARMTH WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH NEWEST NAM12 GUIDANCE SHOWING THE WARMUP A BIT
HELD BACK IN THE EAST. 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 25C WILL REACH
BILLINGS AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL MONTANA AND THE
PATTERN SHIFT ALLOWS LEESIDE TROUGH ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT
TO BRING DRAMATICALLY BETTER WARMING.

SATURDAY IS AN INTRIGUING DAY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE AIRMASS WANTS
TO MAKE A SERIOUS RUN AT 90 DEGREES OR BETTER IN BILLINGS. THE
HIGHEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN BILLINGS IN OCTOBER IS
90...MOST RECENTLY IN 1992. LATEST NAM IS SHOWING THE RIDGE AXIS A
BIT FURTHER WEST THAN GFS WHICH WOULD ENSURE ALL FACTORS LINE UP
FOR A VERY WARM DAY AND MEX GUIDANCE IS ALREADY AT 89 DEGREES.
BIGGEST FLY IN THE OINTMENT COULD BE CLOUD COVER...WHICH CAN BE
VERY HINDERING TO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS LATE IN THE SEASON.
DID NOT CHANGE THE 86 DEGREES IN THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR BILLINGS
SINCE THAT IS ALREADY 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW FORECAST HOLDS TOGETHER.

SUNDAY A SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH NORTHWEST MONTANA WHICH WILL
DEFLECT THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE EASTWARD AND MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. EASILY STILL
ANOTHER DAY INTO THE 80S BUT SHOULD BE MORE CLOUD COVER AS HIGH
BASED CONVECTION IS A POSSIBILITY WITH MODELS SHOWING INVERTED V
SOUNDINGS.

MONDAY STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE BUT RIDGE IS REPLACED BY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUT ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND DPROG/DT
HAVE A SLOWING TREND SHOWING UP IN THE SHIFT OF THE RIDGE...SO
COOL DOWN MAY NOT BE AS DRAMATIC AS HAD BEEN ADVERTISED AT ONE
TIME. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST PERIOD FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE.

MODELS DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
GFS PROGRESSING A TROUGH IN BROAD WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO MONTANA
BY THURSDAY. ECMWF IS SLOWER IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH AND
ACTUALLY GENERATES A CUTOFF FOR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHICH
WOULD PRODUCE A MUCH WEAKER COOL DOWN FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
BORSUM

&&

.AVIATION...

ONLY A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER EASTERN MONTANA WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 30 KTS. BORSUM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 073 043/068 047/086 057/086 053/077 049/072 049/074
    0/U 00/U    00/U    01/U    11/B    22/W    11/B
LVM 073 034/072 041/086 051/083 046/075 042/070 042/072
    0/U 00/U    00/N    01/N    11/B    22/W    21/B
HDN 075 043/072 042/087 054/089 050/082 048/076 048/077
    0/U 00/U    00/U    01/U    11/B    22/W    11/B
MLS 074 041/067 042/083 052/088 050/078 048/072 048/074
    0/N 00/U    00/U    01/U    11/B    22/W    11/U
4BQ 074 039/067 039/082 049/089 051/082 046/073 047/075
    0/N 00/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/B    11/U
BHK 073 038/063 037/074 047/084 046/079 044/069 043/071
    0/N 00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U    11/B    11/U
SHR 073 041/070 039/085 051/087 047/078 045/072 045/074
    0/U 00/U    00/U    01/U    11/B    21/B    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS
      EVENING FOR ZONE 133.
WY...NONE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
921 PM MDT TUE SEP 27 2011

MTZ028>042-056>058-063>068-WYZ098-099-290330-
SOUTHERN WHEATLAND-MUSSELSHELL-TREASURE-NORTHERN ROSEBUD-CUSTER-
FALLON-NORTHERN STILLWATER-YELLOWSTONE-POWDER RIVER-CARTER-
SOUTHERN BIG HORN-EASTERN CARBON-NORTHERN PARK-
NORTHERN SWEET GRASS-GOLDEN VALLEY-RED LODGE FOOTHILLS-
NORTHERN BIG HORN-SOUTHERN ROSEBUD-JUDITH GAP-PARADISE VALLEY-
LIVINGSTON AREA-BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS-ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS-
CRAZY MOUNTAINS-NORTHEAST BIG HORN MOUNTAINS-SHERIDAN FOOTHILLS-
921 PM MDT TUE SEP 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MONTANA...SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA...SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER TONIGHT
 IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL COMBINE WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY TO PRODUCE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
FIRE CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.