Red Flag Warning 5, NWS Billings, MT

395 
WWUS85 KBYZ 252018
RFWBYZ

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
218 PM MDT SUN SEP 25 2011

MTZ123>127-260600-
/O.CON.KBYZ.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-110926T0600Z/
GALLATIN NATIONAL FOREST-WHEATLAND COUNTY/SWEET GRASS COUNTY-
STILLWATER COUNTY-
BEARTOOTH RANGER DISTRICT CUSTER NATIONAL FOREST-
GOLDEN VALLEY COUNTY/MUSSELSHELL COUNTY-
218 PM MDT SUN SEP 25 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT
FOR EXTREMELY LOW HUMIDITIES...HOT TEMPERATURES...AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA...

* AFFECTED AREA...IN MONTANA...FIRE ZONES...123...124...125...126
                                            127

* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF EXTREMELY LOW HUMIDITIES...HOT
  TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE
  HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
  COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND SWITCH
  WINDS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL ALLOW
  HUMIDITIES TO RECOVER ABOVE 20 PERCENT AFTER PASSAGE.

* WIND...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL
  SWITCH TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

* HUMIDITY...8 TO 13 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. HUMIDITIES WILL
  RECOVER ABOVE 20 PERCENT BY MIDNIGHT.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
  WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S THIS EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

993 
WWUS85 KBYZ 260323
RFWBYZ

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
923 PM MDT SUN SEP 25 2011

MTZ123>127-260430-
/O.CAN.KBYZ.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-110926T0600Z/
GALLATIN NATIONAL FOREST-WHEATLAND COUNTY/SWEET GRASS COUNTY-
STILLWATER COUNTY-
BEARTOOTH RANGER DISTRICT CUSTER NATIONAL FOREST-
GOLDEN VALLEY COUNTY/MUSSELSHELL COUNTY-
923 PM MDT SUN SEP 25 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR EXTREMELY LOW HUMIDITIES...
HOT TEMPERATURES...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS FOR MOST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL MONTANA...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BILLINGS HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 

WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DECREASING OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SLOWLY RISING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT WITH
A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST EXPECTED. SEVERAL HOURS OF GUSTY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE
INCREASING.

$$

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
214 AM MDT SUN SEP 25 2011

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A CUTOFF LOW SPINNING OVER
THE MIDWEST...AND A STRONG WAVE PUSHING ONTO THE PACIFIC NW COAST.
MODELS AGREED ON A HOT AND DRY DAY FOR TODAY AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY
WEAKENS OVER THE AREA. MIXING WILL BE TO AROUND 600 MB FROM KBIL W
AND LOWER OVER THE E. HAVE ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES TO MATCH THE
BIAS CORRECTED MAV GUIDANCE WHICH REFLECTED THE MIXDOWN
TEMPERATURES WELL. THE RESULT WILL BE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
KBIL...KMLS AND KSHR. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE
DANGEROUSLY LOW ACROSS THE AREA FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR GUSTY WINDS WILL BE W OF KBIL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THE WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL NECESSITATE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR AREAS W OF KBIL.

THE TROUGH PUSHING ONSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
INTO THE WESTERN ZONES TONIGHT. THE GFS...ECMWF AND SREF ALL BROUGHT
THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY 18Z MON. THE WRF WAS RUNNING SEVERAL
HOURS SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS WITH THE SPEED OF THE FRONT. THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WAS SUPPORTED BY THE CUTOFF
UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WHICH COULD SLOW DOWN THE FRONT. IN
ADDITION...THE GFS WAS FORECASTING STRONGER WINDS OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES THAN THE OTHER MODELS MON AFTERNOON WHICH BROUGHT UNCERTAINTY
TO HOW DANGEROUS THE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE ON MON.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ALSO VARIED AMONG THE MODELS. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL NOT GO WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MON BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO HEADLINE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE FIRE WEATHER
FORECAST. THERE WILL BE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT SO HAVE CUT
BACK POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. ALSO AIRMASS APPEARED TOO STABLE TO
MENTION THUNDER. DID LOWER TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ON MON WITH THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND KEPT THE DRY FORECAST FOR MON
NIGHT FOR NOW. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

RIDGE BREAKDOWN PROGGED ON TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT BULK
OF ENERGY STAYS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER AND BEST FRONTAL PUSH
IS INTO EASTERN MONTANA. REMOVED POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS
PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY DOWNSLOPISH AND NOT SURE OF THETA E VALUES
OF 320K ARE ADEQUATE FOR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES KNOCKED
DOWN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS RIDGE AXIS REBUILDS OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND MIXING IS LIMITED OVER MONTANA. FRIDAY SEES A
RETURN OF LEESIDE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE AXIS WHICH BRINGS BACK
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. WILL LIKELY SEE A RETURN TO VERY LOW
HUMIDITIES WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS SO FIRE CONCERNS WILL REEMERGE FOR
THE BEGINNING OF OCTOBER. BORSUM

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WEST OF KBIL. BORSUM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 091 057/077 050/082 053/074 048/073 048/083 054/077
    0/U 02/W    00/B    00/B    10/U    01/U    11/U
LVM 091 047/075 041/081 047/074 042/074 042/082 046/077
    0/N 02/W    00/B    01/B    10/U    01/U    11/N
HDN 093 054/079 048/083 051/077 048/076 046/085 051/081
    0/U 01/U    00/U    00/B    11/U    11/U    11/U
MLS 091 055/079 048/081 054/073 049/071 046/083 053/077
    0/U 00/N    00/U    01/B    10/U    01/U    11/U
4BQ 091 052/079 047/082 051/077 048/071 044/082 051/079
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U    01/U    11/U
BHK 089 049/077 046/080 050/071 047/070 043/078 050/076
    0/U 00/N    00/U    01/N    10/U    01/U    11/U
SHR 091 052/077 045/083 047/076 046/073 044/082 049/078
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U    01/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
TONIGHT FOR ZONES 123>127.
WY...NONE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS