Red Flag Warning 4, NWS Billings, MT

305 
WWUS85 KBYZ 192017
RFWBYZ

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
217 PM MDT MON SEP 19 2011

MTZ124-125-127>133-WYZ274-200600-
/O.CON.KBYZ.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-110920T0600Z/
WHEATLAND COUNTY/SWEET GRASS COUNTY-STILLWATER COUNTY-
GOLDEN VALLEY COUNTY/MUSSELSHELL COUNTY-YELLOWSTONE COUNTY-
CROW INDIAN RESERVATION/BIG HORN CANYON REC AREA-
NORTHERN ROSEBUD/NORTHERN TREASURE COUNTIES-
NORTHERN CHEYENNE INDIAN RESERVATION/ASHLAND RANGER DISTRICT
CUSTER NATL FOREST-CUSTER COUNTY-
SIOUX RANGER DISTRICT CUSTER NATIONAL FOREST-SHERIDAN COUNTY-
217 PM MDT MON SEP 19 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT
FOR LOW HUMIDITIES...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND WIND SHIFT WITH A
COLD FRONT FOR MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA...ALL OF SOUTHEAST
MONTANA...PARTS OF NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING...

* AFFECTED AREA...IN MONTANA...FIRE ZONES...124...125...127...128
                                            129...130...131...132
					    133	
                  IN WYOMING...FIRE ZONE....274

* IMPACTS...GUSTY WINDS WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...ALONG 
  WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WILL GENERATE 
  CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR GRASSLAND AREAS THIS 
  AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. 

* COLD FRONT...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA 
  LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. 

* WIND...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER
  40 MPH AT TIMES WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
  WINDS WILL SHIFT STRONGLY TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE COLD
  FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THE
  EVENING HOURS. 

* HUMIDITY...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED
  THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

MTZ123-126-200600-
/O.CON.KBYZ.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-110920T0600Z/
GALLATIN NATIONAL FOREST-
BEARTOOTH RANGER DISTRICT CUSTER NATIONAL FOREST-
217 PM MDT MON SEP 19 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT
FOR LOW HUMIDITIES...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND WIND SHIFT WITH A
COLD FRONT FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA BELOW 6000 FEET...

* AFFECTED AREA...IN MONTANA...FIRE ZONES...123...126

* IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS...A STRONG COLD FRONT...AND LOW 
  RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF ZONES 123 AND 126 
  BELOW 6000 FEET AND EAST OF GALLATIN COUNTY. THIS WILL CREATE 
  CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR GRASSLAND AREAS THIS 
  AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. 

* COLD FRONT...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA 
  LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. 

* WIND...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER
  40 MPH AT TIMES WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. 
  WINDS WILL SHIFT STRONGLY TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE COLD
  FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THE
  EVENING HOURS. 


* HUMIDITY...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 12 TO 22 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED
  THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

HOOLEY

783 
WWUS85 KBYZ 200306
RFWBYZ

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
906 PM MDT MON SEP 19 2011

MTZ123>133-WYZ274-200415-
/O.CAN.KBYZ.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-110920T0600Z/
GALLATIN NATIONAL FOREST-WHEATLAND COUNTY/SWEET GRASS COUNTY-
STILLWATER COUNTY-
BEARTOOTH RANGER DISTRICT CUSTER NATIONAL FOREST-
GOLDEN VALLEY COUNTY/MUSSELSHELL COUNTY-YELLOWSTONE COUNTY-
CROW INDIAN RESERVATION/BIG HORN CANYON REC AREA-
NORTHERN ROSEBUD/NORTHERN TREASURE COUNTIES-
NORTHERN CHEYENNE INDIAN RESERVATION/ASHLAND RANGER DISTRICT
CUSTER NATL FOREST-CUSTER COUNTY-
SIOUX RANGER DISTRICT CUSTER NATIONAL FOREST-SHERIDAN COUNTY-
906 PM MDT MON SEP 19 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED... 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BILLINGS HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 

OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
EAST OF BILLINGS. OTHERWISE...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAD RECOVERED
INTO THE 40 TO 80 PERCENT RANGE THIS EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO CLIMB OVERNIGHT. DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS WERE NO LONGER
EXPECTED SO THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

$$

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
904 PM MDT SUN SEP 18 2011

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

MADE A QUICK UPDATE TONIGHT TO DROP THE MENTION OF SHOWERS OVER
THE BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS STABLE TONIGHT UNDER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. TWEAKED WINDS ACROSS THE WEST TO KEEP THEM
FAIRLY GUSTY OVERNIGHT DUE TO A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
ALSO DROPPED DEWPOINTS 5-10 DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT MIXING DRIER AIR IN FROM ALOFT. REST OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. STC/TWH

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT WITH JUST SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DUE TO PACIFIC MOISTURE.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT CONCERNING A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON MON. A SHORTWAVE MOVING ONTO THE BC
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL PUSH SE
INTO NW MT BY 18Z MON. THE WAVE WILL REACH ND MON EVENING. THIS
ENERGY WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT SE INTO THE FORECAST AREA MON
AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOWED STRONG GUSTY WINDS PRECEDING THE FRONT AND
CONTINUING BEHIND IT INTO MON EVENING WITH THE GFS SHOWING MUCH
STRONGER WINDS THAN THE WRF. A STRONG BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE QUICKLY MOVING FRONT ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE...
AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS WERE EXPECTED TO APPROACH AN INCH. HAVE GONE
WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND WRF FOR WIND SPEEDS WHICH WILL
SUPPORT A WINDY DAY AND EVENING. INCREASED POPS MON AFTERNOON WITH
LIKELIES IN THE FAR NW AREAS TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER SE MT.
TAPERED OFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES W OF KBIL AFTER 00Z TUE AND KEPT
CHANCE POPS FROM KBIL E AND S. WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF THUNDER
DUE TO A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE.

BECAUSE OF THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT...CONSIDERED A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR MON INTO MON EVENING. HOWEVER...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
BE TOO HIGH TO SUPPORT DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS ON MON...EVEN
THOUGH IT WILL BE WINDY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL. THUS CONSENSUS WAS NOT TO GO WITH A WATCH AND TO HANDLE THE
FIRE WEATHER FORECAST WITH HEADLINES HIGHLIGHTING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND GUSTY WINDS.

ANOTHER WAVE WILL ROTATE INTO THE AREA EARLY TUE. CONTINUED LOW POPS
OVER SE MT AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF ZONES LATE MON NIGHT DUE
TO THE EXITING FIRST WAVE AND 700 MB FRONT. HAD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN FAR EASTERN ZONES ON TUE DUE TO THE SECOND WAVE COMING INTO THE
AREA. MODELS ALSO SHOWED SOME MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION AND LINGERING
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES...SO HAD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THERE. AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT TUE NIGHT SO NO POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...LOWERED THEM SLIGHTLY ON MON DUE TO EXPECTED
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. RAISED THEM SLIGHTLY ON TUE BASED ON
FORECAST MIXING. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WEDNESDAY
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN STORE
FOR WEDNESDAY BEFORE A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. RIDGE AXIS PUSHES ACROSS THE
STATE EARLY THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD INTO FRIDAY. CENTER OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AND POSITIONS ITSELF OVER MONTANA AND
WYOMING INTO SATURDAY AND THEN THE DAKOTAS BY SUNDAY. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH READINGS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. HOOLEY

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR FLYING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT
LIVINGSTON. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVER THE REST OF THE AREA...BUT
INCREASE AGAIN LATE MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT
WILL CAUSE A HAZARD TO AVIATION WITH WINDS SHIFTING QUICKLY TO
THE NORTHWEST AS IT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL GUST TO 35KTS
BEHIND THE FRONT. TWH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049/073 041/065 040/072 046/083 053/086 054/085 052/083
    04/T    31/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
LVM 045/075 034/067 033/074 041/081 046/084 047/083 045/077
    15/T    10/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
HDN 047/078 040/067 041/073 043/085 051/087 052/087 051/084
    03/T    30/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    01/U
MLS 048/075 042/065 039/071 044/083 052/087 055/087 053/084
    03/T    41/U    10/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
4BQ 045/077 039/063 037/067 041/081 047/086 050/086 049/082
    02/T    41/U    10/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
BHK 043/071 040/061 036/065 040/076 047/085 048/085 050/081
    02/T    52/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
SHR 043/073 038/062 037/069 040/081 045/084 046/083 046/076
    03/T    42/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS