High Wind Warning 10, NWS Billings, MT

581 
WWUS75 KBYZ 072057
NPWBYZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
257 PM MDT FRI OCT 7 2011


MTZ030>033-036-037-058-072200-
/O.CAN.KBYZ.HW.W.0010.000000T0000Z-111008T0300Z/
TREASURE-NORTHERN ROSEBUD-CUSTER-FALLON-POWDER RIVER-CARTER-
SOUTHERN ROSEBUD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HYSHAM...COLSTRIP...FORSYTH...
MILES CITY...BAKER...BROADUS...EKALAKA...LAME DEER
257 PM MDT FRI OCT 7 2011

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BILLINGS HAS CANCELLED THE HIGH
WIND WARNING. 

HIGH WINDS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DECREASING. 


$$

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
315 AM MDT FRI OCT 7 2011

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY IN LIFTING CUT OFF UPPER LOW
THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA. BANDS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW AND WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE DAY. BEST QG FORCING AND LIFT FROM STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
WILL BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA THIS MORNING...MAINLY FROM
BILLINGS TO MILES CITY AND AREAS SOUTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO
GENERATE SIGNIFICANT QPF VALUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS EAST OF BILLINGS TO MILES CITY WHERE NEARLY AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. CLOUD COVER AND WEAK COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL VALUES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUING TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST BIG HORN MOUNTAINS AND EXPECT HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE THERE THROUGH LATE MORNING.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN AROUND FREEZING MOST OF THE NIGHT AT
BURGESS JUNCTION AND EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW
TO FALL ABOVE 8000 FEET. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES IS
EXPECTED OVER THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS BUT AMOUNTS WILL
REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE TODAY WILL BE WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA. SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN
OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY
THIS EVENING. THE LOW WILL BRING STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO SOUTHEAST MONTANA LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING
WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KT BELOW 5000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. BUFKIT ALSO
SHOWING WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS WHICH WILL
INDUCE SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. WILL GO AHEAD
AND ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA WHICH
WILL RUN FROM 17Z TO 03Z. SEVERAL HOURS OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40
MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH MAXIMUM GUST NEAR 50 MPH. WIND SPEEDS OF 25
TO 35 MPH WILL OCCUR FROM BILLINGS WEST TO LIVINGSTON THIS
MORNING.

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW QUICKLY MOVES
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WHICH ALLOWS A NORTHWEST FLOW TO SET UP
ACROSS THE AREA. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW
AND WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY BUT WILL BE LIMITED
TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. FLOW BECOMING ZONAL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. RICHMOND

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED AS THE GFS CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF
SOLUTION...THUS CONFIDENCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IMPACTING
EASTERN ZONES WITH SOME RAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IS
INCREASING.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND
40S.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST A CUTOFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO
SOUTHEAST MONTANA. MODELS THEN MOVE IT QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AROUND THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
POSITIONED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS BRING PRECIP INTO THE EAST BY MID DAY SUNDAY WITH SOME
MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND CONTINUE IT
INTO EARLY MONDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS THE REGION MONDAY...AT WHICH POINT FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES/WEAK SURFACE
COLD FRONTS PROGRESSING EASTWARD. THIS WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT IN TIMING/STRENGTH OF
FEATURES BETWEEN THE MODELS DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT AS THE ECMWF
HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT RECENTLY...TRENDED TOWARDS ITS SOLUTION.

ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN GFS IN BUILDING A RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...THE ECMWF SHOWS SEVERAL SEVERAL PIECES OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THEN MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION IN SW FLOW ALOFT...KEEPING THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE GFS KEEPS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...THEN DRIVES THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE REGION WITH A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT
AND A GOOD DEAL OF PRECIPITATION. DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE THE
ECMWF SOLUTION BASED ON ITS CONSISTENCY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH GIVEN SUCH DIVERGENT MODEL FORECASTS. STC

&&

.AVIATION...

MOST OF THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CEILINGS
AND/OR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS EASTERN MT. ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TI IMPACT EASTERN ROUTES. STRONG WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO THE 30-45 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR
AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 25 KTS THROUGH THE EVENING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. STC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 059 042/060 040/064 043/063 045/061 043/064 040/063
    +/W 41/B    01/B    11/B    22/W    21/B    12/W
LVM 053 033/061 031/067 034/063 036/060 035/065 033/065
    6/W 42/W    01/B    12/W    32/W    22/W    12/W
HDN 060 043/063 037/067 040/067 042/064 042/066 039/066
    +/W 41/B    01/B    11/B    12/W    21/B    12/W
MLS 056 044/061 037/064 042/064 043/065 043/064 041/064
    +/W 41/B    01/B    11/B    12/W    21/N    11/B
4BQ 055 043/061 035/063 043/064 043/066 042/063 040/063
    8/W 61/B    11/B    21/B    12/W    31/B    11/B
BHK 058 043/058 034/063 043/063 041/065 042/062 039/062
    8/W 61/B    01/B    32/W    11/B    21/N    11/B
SHR 057 040/059 033/064 035/066 040/063 039/063 037/063
    +/W 52/W    11/B    11/B    12/W    32/W    12/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
      MDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONES 30>33-36-37-58.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR
      ZONE 98.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
915 PM MDT THU OCT 6 2011

MTZ028>042-056>058-063>068-WYZ098-099-080315-
SOUTHERN WHEATLAND-MUSSELSHELL-TREASURE-NORTHERN ROSEBUD-CUSTER-
FALLON-NORTHERN STILLWATER-YELLOWSTONE-POWDER RIVER-CARTER-
SOUTHERN BIG HORN-EASTERN CARBON-NORTHERN PARK-
NORTHERN SWEET GRASS-GOLDEN VALLEY-RED LODGE FOOTHILLS-
NORTHERN BIG HORN-SOUTHERN ROSEBUD-JUDITH GAP-PARADISE VALLEY-
LIVINGSTON AREA-BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS-ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS-
CRAZY MOUNTAINS-NORTHEAST BIG HORN MOUNTAINS-SHERIDAN FOOTHILLS-
915 PM MDT THU OCT 6 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MONTANA...SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA...SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 8000
FEET TONIGHT. THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA AND CRAZY MOUNTAINS WILL SEE
3 TO 8 INCHES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WHILE THE BIG HORN
MOUNTAINS WILL SEE 5 TO 10 INCHES. HEAVY WET SNOW WILL CREATE
DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS DUE TO RESTRICTED VISIBILITY AND
SLICK ROADWAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING AND SPREAD
EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE EARLY IN THE
DAY WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE FROM BILLINGS TO MILES CITY.
WINDS WILL DECREASE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS
ARE ALSO LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE POTENTIALLY
HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS ROSEBUD COUNTY AND DOWN TO SHERIDAN
COUNTY IN WYOMING. THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND WIND MAY PRODUCE
DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS DUE TO WIND DRIVEN RAIN LIMITING
VISIBILITY... ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERSTATE 94 FROM HYSHAM TO MILES
CITY.

THE WIND AND RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY FRIDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.