Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS Billings, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
253 PM MDT WED JUL 6 2011

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO HEAT.
CONVECTION FROM LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING PRODUCED SEVERAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH...COMBINED WITH SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND
SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...SHOULD HELP INITIATE CELL
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER EAST IN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE THIS
EVENING. THERE IS ENOUGH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FOR MULTICELL
CLUSTERS...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE
CONVECTION. DUE TO THE SLOW CELL MOVEMENT AND FAIRLY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT. WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED BORDERLINE
SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WITH SOME OF THE STORMS AS
MLCAPES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION LOOK TO TOP OUT GENERALLY IN THE
750 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE AND DCAPES APPROACH 750 TO 1000 J/KG THIS
EVENING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO WIND DOWN LATE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN.

ON THURSDAY A STRONG WAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEGINS
TO SHIFT THE RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD AND ALLOW SOME HEIGHT FALLS
ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON SPREADING EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL FAVOR A BETTER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPING
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AMPLIFYING IN THE EVENING. A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET RETURNS TO SOUTHEAST MONTANA BY LATE THURSDAY.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE COULD BOOST PRECIPITABLE WATERS IN THE
AREA...SO KEPT MODEST POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER ON
THURSDAY AS THE AIRMASS WILL BE A BIT MORE UNSTABLE...ALLOWING FOR
DEEPER MIXING.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG WAVE ROLLS THROUGH
FRIDAY. BEST COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DYNAMICS SETS UP
ACROSS EASTERN ZONES...THUS STRONGEST CONVECTION MOST LIKELY
ACROSS THE EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST IN SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT. STC/RICHMOND

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE WELL THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. COOLED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH MODEL TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...DECREASED CLOUD COVER AND POPS FOR SATURDAY EVENING
AND SUNDAY WITH A BUILDING SHORTWAVE RIDGE AFFECTING THE AREA.

EARLY NEXT WEEK THE NEXT UPPER LOW DEEPENS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE
MONSOON IN FULL SWING...I KEPT CHANCE POPS OVER THE BEARTOOTH AND
ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS. RAISED DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE EAST WITH A GOOD
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS APPROACHING
1.5 INCHES. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE OVER 2000 J/KG OF CAPE WITH A
100 J/KG CAP OVER THE BROADUS AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHILE IT IS
TOO EARLY TO HAVE ANY CONFIDENCE IN THAT LEVEL OF DETAIL...THIS IS A
CLASSIC THUNDERSTORM PATTERN FOR SOUTHEAST MONTANA. CONTINUED WITH
THE CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS TOO. RNL

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING
AS WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS AS THEY COULD PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KLVM...KBIL TO EKALAKA.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH BY 06Z TONIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA CAN EXPECTED VFR CONDITIONS. RICHMOND

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061/091 063/088 060/088 057/082 059/087 062/090 062/089
    33/T    33/T    32/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    23/T
LVM 051/088 051/084 049/083 047/080 048/085 051/088 050/087
    33/T    33/T    22/T    22/T    23/T    32/T    23/T
HDN 062/094 063/092 061/087 055/085 056/087 060/091 059/090
    33/T    34/T    32/T    22/T    22/T    32/T    23/T
MLS 065/092 066/090 064/085 056/083 059/086 063/090 062/089
    32/T    34/T    32/T    22/T    23/T    32/T    22/T
4BQ 065/092 066/089 062/085 056/084 059/086 062/089 061/089
    42/T    34/T    33/T    22/T    23/T    32/T    23/T
BHK 065/087 065/087 063/081 055/080 056/082 060/084 059/085
    32/T    34/T    43/T    22/T    23/T    42/T    23/T
SHR 056/090 059/086 057/084 053/082 056/085 057/087 056/087
    43/T    44/T    33/T    32/T    23/T    32/T    23/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
300 PM MDT WED JUL 6 2011

MTZ028>042-056>058-063>068-WYZ098-099-072100-
SOUTHERN WHEATLAND-MUSSELSHELL-TREASURE-NORTHERN ROSEBUD-CUSTER-
FALLON-NORTHERN STILLWATER-YELLOWSTONE-POWDER RIVER-CARTER-
SOUTHERN BIG HORN-EASTERN CARBON-NORTHERN PARK-
NORTHERN SWEET GRASS-GOLDEN VALLEY-RED LODGE FOOTHILLS-
NORTHERN BIG HORN-SOUTHERN ROSEBUD-JUDITH GAP-PARADISE VALLEY-
LIVINGSTON AREA-BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS-ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS-
CRAZY MOUNTAINS-NORTHEAST BIG HORN MOUNTAINS-SHERIDAN FOOTHILLS-
300 PM MDT WED JUL 6 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MONTANA...SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA...SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY AND WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

RIVERS AND AREA STREAMS WILL REMAIN AROUND OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
STREAM FLOWS WILL BE STRONGER THAN NORMAL. PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
RIVER LEVELS IF YOU ARE ON OR NEAR THE WATER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BUT WILL DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY.

FLOODING AND HIGH WATER DUE TO SNOW MELT WILL CONTINUE AS THE
WEATHER REMAINS WARM. TAKE STEPS TO PROTECT PROPERTY AND
LIVESTOCK IF LOCATED NEAR LOCAL WATERWAYS OR IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING FROM SNOW MELT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
619 PM MDT WED JUL 06 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0618 PM     HAIL             REED POINT              45.70N 109.55W
07/06/2011  E1.75 INCH       STILLWATER         MT   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORT FROM TRAVELLER ON I-90

&&

RNL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
624 PM MDT WED JUL 06 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0623 PM     FLASH FLOOD      RED LODGE               45.19N 109.25W
07/06/2011                   CARBON             MT   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FIRE CHIEF REPORTED 1 FOOT OF WATER RUNNING DOWN STREETS.
            BETTER NOW.

&&

RNL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
629 PM MDT WED JUL 06 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0628 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 S RED LODGE           45.18N 109.25W
07/06/2011                   CARBON             MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1.2 INCHES OF RAIN IN HALF HOUR

&&

RNL