Alert archive / New York / Winter Weather Advisories in 2011

Winter Weather Advisory 9, NWS Buffalo, NY

February 20, 201114 counties in New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this winter weather advisory at Feb 20, 2011, 4:06 AM EST for 14 counties in New York. It took effect at Feb 20, 2011, 7:00 PM EST. It was in force for 13 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Feb 20, 2011, 4:06 AM EST (09:06 UTC)
In effect from
Feb 20, 2011, 7:00 PM EST
Expired
Feb 21, 2011, 7:33 AM EST
In force
13 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

Counties Allegany County, NY, Cattaraugus County, NY, Cayuga County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Erie County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Livingston County, NY, Monroe County, NY, Niagara County, NY, Ontario County, NY, Orleans County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Wayne County, NY, Wyoming County, NY

The radar

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 69 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:11 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 00:00Z, 9.1 hours before the alert went out and 65 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 00:00Z on 2011-02-20Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 00:00Z on 2011-02-20The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 92 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
780 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
76 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
92 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
1 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

982 
WWUS41 KBUF 200906
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
406 AM EST SUN FEB 20 2011

NYZ019>021-201715-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0002.110220T2300Z-110221T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0009.110221T0000Z-110221T1600Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE
406 AM EST SUN FEB 20 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
11 AM EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH
IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. 

* TIMING...SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING. HEAVIEST
  PRECIPITATION FROM MID EVENING SUNDAY THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY.

* HAZARDS...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL
  MIX IN NEAR THE PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE. 

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS
  OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH OF ICE
  ACCUMULATION WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE PENNSYLVANIA
  STATE LINE.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT BECOMING NORTHEAST ON
  MONDAY.

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A HALF MILE DURING HEAVIER SNOWFALL.

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH SNOW AND ICE COVERED
  ROADS ALONG WITH POOR VISIBILITY AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...
SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ012>014-085-201715-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0002.110220T2300Z-110221T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0009.110221T0000Z-110221T1600Z/
WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
406 AM EST SUN FEB 20 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
11 AM EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 11 AM EST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...NIAGARA FRONTIER...GENESEE VALLEY...AND WESTERN
  FINGER LAKES.

* TIMING...SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING. HEAVIEST
  PRECIPITATION FROM MID EVENING SUNDAY THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY.

* HAZARDS...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 7 INCHES WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
  THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH LATER TONIGHT AND
  MONDAY. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH NEAR LAKE ONTARIO.

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A HALF MILE DURING HEAVIER SNOWFALL.

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS
  AND POOR VISIBILITY AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...
SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ001>003-010-011-201715-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0009.110221T0000Z-110221T1600Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
BUFFALO...BATAVIA
406 AM EST SUN FEB 20 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
11 AM EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 11 AM EST MONDAY.

* LOCATIONS...NIAGARA FRONTIER...GENESEE VALLEY...AND WESTERN
  FINGER LAKES.

* TIMING...SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING. HEAVIEST
  PRECIPITATION FROM MID EVENING SUNDAY THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY.

* HAZARDS...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 7 INCHES WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
  THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH LATER TONIGHT AND
  MONDAY. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH NEAR LAKE ONTARIO.

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A HALF MILE DURING HEAVIER SNOWFALL.

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS
  AND POOR VISIBILITY AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...
SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ004>006-201715-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0009.110221T0300Z-110221T1600Z/
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO
406 AM EST SUN FEB 20 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
11 AM EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS
EVENING TO 11 AM EST MONDAY.

* LOCATIONS...WAYNE...NORTHERN CAYUGA...AND OSWEGO COUNTIES.

* TIMING...LATE SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING.
  HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FROM MIDNIGHT TO DAYBREAK MONDAY.

* HAZARDS...MODERATE SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH LATER TONIGHT AND
  MONDAY. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH NEAR LAKE ONTARIO.

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A HALF MILE DURING HEAVIER SNOWFALL.

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS
  AND POOR VISIBILITY AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...
SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK
5 follow-up statements
708 
WWUS41 KBUF 201456
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
956 AM EST SUN FEB 20 2011

NYZ019>021-202300-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0009.110221T0000Z-110221T1600Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE
956 AM EST SUN FEB 20 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 11 AM EST MONDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 11 AM EST MONDAY. 

* LOCATIONS...WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.

* TIMING...SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING. HEAVIEST 
  PRECIPITATION FROM MID EVENING SUNDAY THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY. 

* HAZARDS...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL 
  MIX IN NEAR THE PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE. 

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE GREATEST 
  AMOUNTS OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH OF 
  ICE ACCUMULATION WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE 
  PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE. 

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT BECOMING NORTHEAST 
  ON MONDAY. 

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A HALF MILE DURING HEAVIER SNOWFALL.

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH SNOW AND ICE 
  COVERED ROADS ALONG WITH POOR VISIBILITY AT TIMES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...
SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ001>003-010>014-085-202300-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0009.110221T0000Z-110221T1600Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-
ONTARIO-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
956 AM EST SUN FEB 20 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 11 AM EST MONDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 11 AM EST MONDAY. 

* LOCATIONS...NIAGARA FRONTIER...GENESEE VALLEY...AND WESTERN 
  FINGER LAKES. 

* TIMING...SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING. HEAVIEST 
  PRECIPITATION FROM MID EVENING SUNDAY THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY. 

* HAZARDS...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 7 INCHES WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ACROSS 
  THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER. 

* WINDS...NORTHEAST INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH LATER TONIGHT AND 
  MONDAY. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH NEAR LAKE ONTARIO. 

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A HALF MILE DURING HEAVIER SNOWFALL.

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS 
  AND POOR VISIBILITY AT TIMES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...
SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ004>006-202300-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0009.110221T0300Z-110221T1600Z/
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO
956 AM EST SUN FEB 20 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS
EVENING TO 11 AM EST MONDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS
EVENING TO 11 AM EST MONDAY. 

* LOCATIONS...WAYNE...NORTHERN CAYUGA...AND OSWEGO COUNTIES.

* TIMING...LATE SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING. 
  HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FROM MIDNIGHT TO DAYBREAK MONDAY. 

* HAZARDS...MODERATE SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH LATER TONIGHT AND 
  MONDAY. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH NEAR LAKE ONTARIO. 

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A HALF MILE DURING HEAVIER SNOWFALL.

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS 
  AND POOR VISIBILITY AT TIMES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...
SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$
016 
WWUS41 KBUF 202003
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
303 PM EST SUN FEB 20 2011

NYZ019>021-210415-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WW.Y.0009.110221T0000Z-110221T1600Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.W.0003.110221T0000Z-110221T1600Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE
303 PM EST SUN FEB 20 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM
EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 11 AM EST MONDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...ALL OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.

* TIMING...TONIGHT. HEAVIEST SNOW FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM
  MONDAY. 

* HAZARDS...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL 
  MIX IN NEAR THE PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE. 

* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS
  OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS CLOSER TO THE PENNSYLVANIA LINE.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT BECOMING NORTHEAST 
  ON MONDAY. 

* VISIBILITIES...DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE IN HEAVIER SNOW.

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS
  ALONG WITH POOR VISIBILITY AT TIMES.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING IN THE WARNING AREA YOU
SHOULD CHOOSE AN ALTERNATE ROUTE IF POSSIBLE, OR YOU SHOULD USE
EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE.

IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE
THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY
VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND
USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT
BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES
AND WATER HEATERS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ001>003-010>014-085-210415-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0009.110221T0000Z-110221T1600Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-
ONTARIO-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
303 PM EST SUN FEB 20 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 11 AM EST MONDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 11 AM EST MONDAY. 

* LOCATIONS...NIAGARA FRONTIER...GENESEE VALLEY...AND WESTERN 
  FINGER LAKES. 

* TIMING...TONIGHT. HEAVIEST SNOW FROM ABOUT 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
  6 AM MONDAY MORNING.

* HAZARDS...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
  THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER AND LESSER
  AMOUNTS NEARER LAKE ONTARIO.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH LATER TONIGHT AND
  MONDAY. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH NEAR LAKE ONTARIO MONDAY.

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A HALF MILE DURING HEAVIER SNOWFALL.

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS 
  AND POOR VISIBILITY AT TIMES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...
SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ004>006-210415-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0009.110221T0300Z-110221T1600Z/
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO
303 PM EST SUN FEB 20 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS
EVENING TO 11 AM EST MONDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS
EVENING TO 11 AM EST MONDAY. 

* LOCATIONS...ENTIRE REGION.

* TIMING...OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. HEAVIEST SNOW FROM AROUND
  MIDNIGHT TO DAYBREAK MONDAY.

* HAZARDS...MODERATE SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES...HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHERN
  SECTIONS.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH LATER TONIGHT AND
  MONDAY. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH NEAR LAKE ONTARIO.

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A HALF MILE DURING HEAVIER SNOWFALL.

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS 
  AND POOR VISIBILITY AT TIMES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...
SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

SFM
563 
WWUS41 KBUF 210234
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
934 PM EST SUN FEB 20 2011

NYZ019>021-211100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-110221T1600Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE
934 PM EST SUN FEB 20 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST
MONDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST MONDAY. 

* LOCATIONS...ALL OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.

* TIMING...OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE HEAVIEST
  SNOW FALLING BEFORE 7 AM MONDAY.

* HAZARDS...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MAY
  ALSO MIX IN NEAR THE PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE.

* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT BECOMING NORTHEAST 10
  TO 20 MPH ON MONDAY.

* VISIBILITIES...DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE IN HEAVIER SNOW.

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS 
  ALONG WITH POOR VISIBILITY AT TIMES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING IN THE WARNING AREA YOU
SHOULD CHOOSE AN ALTERNATE ROUTE IF POSSIBLE... OR YOU SHOULD USE
EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE.

IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE
THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY
VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND
USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT
BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES
AND WATER HEATERS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ001>003-010>014-085-211100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-110221T1600Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-
ONTARIO-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
934 PM EST SUN FEB 20 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST
MONDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST
MONDAY. 

* LOCATIONS...NIAGARA FRONTIER...GENESEE VALLEY...AND WESTERN 
  FINGER LAKES. 

* TIMING...OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE HEAVIEST
  SNOW FALLING BEFORE 7 AM MONDAY.

* HAZARDS...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 7 INCHES...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
  THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER AND LESSER
  AMOUNTS NEARER LAKE ONTARIO.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH LATER TONIGHT AND 
  MONDAY. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH NEAR LAKE ONTARIO MONDAY. 

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A HALF MILE DURING HEAVIER SNOWFALL.

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS 
  AND POOR VISIBILITY AT TIMES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...
SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ004>006-211100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0009.110221T0300Z-110221T1600Z/
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO
934 PM EST SUN FEB 20 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST
MONDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST
MONDAY. 

* LOCATIONS...THE EASTERN FINGER LAKES AND OSWEGO COUNTY.

* TIMING...OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING....WITH THE HEAVIEST
  SNOW FALLING BEFORE 7 AM MONDAY.

* HAZARDS...MODERATE SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES...HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHERN
  SECTIONS.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH LATER TONIGHT AND 
  MONDAY. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH NEAR LAKE ONTARIO. 

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A HALF MILE DURING HEAVIER SNOWFALL.

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS 
  AND POOR VISIBILITY AT TIMES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...
SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

JJR
923 
WWUS41 KBUF 210836
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
336 AM EST MON FEB 21 2011

NYZ001>006-210945-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-110221T1600Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO
336 AM EST MON FEB 21 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. 

SNOW HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO EARLY
THIS MORNING...THEREFORE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.

$$

NYZ019>021-211600-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-110221T1600Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE
336 AM EST MON FEB 21 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS
MORNING. 

* LOCATIONS...WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.

* TIMING...THROUGH THIS MORNING.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW. 

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR THROUGH
  DAYBREAK. STORM TOTAL OF 7 TO 10 INCHES.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE IN HEAVIER SNOW.

* IMPACTS...VERY DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH SNOW COVERED
  ROADS ALONG WITH POOR VISIBILITY AT TIMES. IMPROVING BY MID TO
  LATE MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. HEAVY SNOW WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. IF
YOU WILL BE TRAVELING IN THE WARNING AREA YOU SHOULD CHOOSE AN
ALTERNATE ROUTE IF POSSIBLE...OR YOU SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION
IF TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE.

IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE
THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY
VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND
USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT
BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES
AND WATER HEATERS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ010>014-085-211600-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-110221T1600Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...
CANANDAIGUA...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
336 AM EST MON FEB 21 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS
MORNING. 

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND WESTERN FINGER
  LAKES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY. 

* TIMING...THROUGH THIS MORNING.

* HAZARDS...MODERATE SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 7 INCHES...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
  THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH NEAR LAKE
  ONTARIO.

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A HALF MILE DURING HEAVIER SNOWFALL.

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS 
  AND POOR VISIBILITY AT TIMES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW. WHILE THE WEATHER
WILL BE SIGNIFICANT THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK
089 
WWUS41 KBUF 211233
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
733 AM EST MON FEB 21 2011

NYZ019>021-211345-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-110221T1600Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE
733 AM EST MON FEB 21 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
STORM WARNING. 

SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF EARLY THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH...THEREFORE THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

NYZ010>014-085-211345-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-110221T1600Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...
CANANDAIGUA...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
733 AM EST MON FEB 21 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. 

SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF EARLY THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH...THEREFORE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

HITCHCOCK

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this winter weather advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter weather advisory went out at Feb 20, 3:29 AM EST, 37 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 20, 3:29 AM EST, 37 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
329 AM EST SUN FEB 20 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
AND PROVIDE SOME SUNSHINE BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND BRING A WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL TO THE ENTIRE REGION. THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH SOME SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN NEAR THE PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE. THE SNOW WILL TAPER
OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY WITH DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE
CLOUDS PERSISTING EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY FOCUSED ON THE
INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND AREAS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM
ROCHESTER EAST TO THE TUG HILL AND DOWN INTO THE FINGER LAKES.
NORTHWEST FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALLOW THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY TO MID MORNING...THEREAFTER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
AND DISRUPT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...WITH CLOUDS DECREASING AND LEAVING
SOME MORNING SUNSHINE.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE LOWER LAKES LATE THIS MORNING
THEN QUICKLY PUSH EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. UPPER LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A WEST TO EAST INCREASE AND
THICKENING OF HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. 850MB TEMPS RECOVER TO AROUND
-4C ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND -6C CLOSER TO LAKE ONTARIO. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
UPPER 20S FARTHER NORTH. QUITE A BIT COOLER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
DEEPER IN THE COLD AIR...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO THE UPPER TEENS.

MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST CONTINUES TO BE THE SYSTEM FOR TONIGHT.
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWING AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT
OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...SPAWNING SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE COLORADO PLAINS. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION OVER IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.

SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CONVERGE ON A COMMON SOLUTION
WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND OHIO TONIGHT
THEN CROSSING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL RACE OUT AHEAD OF ITS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SUPPORT...AND
ESSENTIALLY JUST BECOME A STRONG FRONTAL WAVE RUNNING ALONG THE
TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS
WESTERN NY...SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG 150+KT UPPER LEVEL JET LIFTING TO THE
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF WEAK TO
MODERATE LIFT AND LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS AND STRETCHING
DEFORMATION WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A
DIFFERENTIAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION PATTERN...WITH WARM AIR TRYING TO
PUSH NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY ATOP LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
AS A COLD CANADIAN HIGH TRIES TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC. THIS AXIS OF STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SHOULD PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF ENHANCED LIFT...WITH A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW OVERNIGHT IN BANDED EAST/WEST FEATURES.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD TREND IN THE PAST FEW
RUNS...WHICH SHOULD FOCUS THE STRONGEST FGEN/DEFORMATION FORCING ON
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION. THE SLIGHT SOUTHWARD
TREND WILL ALSO ALLOW MOST OF THE PRECIP TO FALL AS SNOW...ALTHOUGH
STILL EXPECT ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT TO MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER
TO ALLOW A MIX WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE PA
STATE LINE. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS TO
BE JUST NORTH OF THIS MIX...MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES INTO SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING COUNTIES AND
THE FINGER LAKES. AMOUNTS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT FARTHER NORTH
TOWARD THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE...BUT STILL EXPECT A SOLID
ACCUMULATION WITH SOME MINOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT PERHAPS MAKING UP FOR
A LITTLE LESS SYNOPTIC FORCING AND MOISTURE. UP ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...THE STRONGER FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE REGION...WITH JUST A STEADY LIGHTER SNOW GIVING A FEW INCHES
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

GIVEN THE EXPECTATIONS ABOVE...WILL HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA EXCEPT FOR JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES FROM THIS
EVENING THROUGH LATE MORNING MONDAY. EXPECT STORM TOTALS OF
GENERALLY 4-7 INCHES WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS FALLING IN A BAND
FROM SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING COUNTY INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES AND FINGER LAKES COUNTIES. ALONG THE PA STATE
LINE WILL GO WITH SNOW AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES WITH ICE OF UP TO A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH. 2-4 INCHES SHOULD ALSO DO IT FOR THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH LIGHTER SNOW THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWS SHOULD BE DECREASING MONDAY MORNING AS THE
PRIMARY SURFACE WAVE WILL BE EXITING EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
SOME LIGHTER ACCUMULATING SNOWS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD
BE SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE ONTARIO AS THE FLOW TURNS NORTHERLY
WITH MARGINAL 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF -10C TO -12C. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAY MONDAY LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN 2
INCHES.

MONDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING SNOWS SHOULD COME TO AN END AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE PRESSES DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. VERY COLD OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO AROUND ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY GRADIENT TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT
WIND CHILL HEADLINES.

FAIR BUT COLD DAY ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT PREVAILS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S AT
BEST...WHICH COMBINED WITH A STIFF NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD LEAD TO
WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS A MID
LEVEL TROUGH SHARPENS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND DIRECTS A COLD CANADIAN
HIGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPS WILL TUMBLE TO WELL BELOW
AVERAGE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS. AFTER 850MB
TEMPS PLUMMET TO AROUND -16C MONDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A SLOW
RECOVERY TO AROUND -10C ON TUESDAY. THIS COLD AIR MAY SUPPORT SOME
LAKE EFFECT AGAIN...BUT SHORT FETCH NORTHERLY FLOW AND A DRY
SYNOPTIC SCALE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD KEEP THIS LIMITED.

TEMPS BEGIN TO RECOVER A LITTLE ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST AGAIN ON
THURSDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST COAST. WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY
AND WED NIGHT DRY AT THIS POINT BUT A WARM FRONT LIFTING TOWARD THE
REGION ON THURSDAY WILL BRING CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OF
EITHER WET SNOW OR RAIN...DEPENDING ON EXACT THERMAL PROFILES.

MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GFS TAKES A
WEAK TROUGH ACROSS THE LAKES THURSDAY...THEN A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW. THE
ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND ALLOWS FOR SOUTHERN/NORTHERN STREAM
PHASING...AND TAKES A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD BRING
ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM AIR INTO THE LOWER LAKES REGION WITH RAIN
SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WINDS AND COLDER TEMPS LATER ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL STICK CLOSE TO
CONTINUITY WITH TEMPS NEAR CLIMO FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHTS AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
CONTINUE RIDGING EAST INTO NEW YORK STATE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
AN END TO ANY LINGERING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ALONG WITH AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE.

SUNDAY WILL LARGELY FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS UNDER INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WORKS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW WILL REACH FAR WESTERN SECTIONS EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR AS
THIS OCCURS...WITH THESE RESTRICTIONS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/VFR WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER LAKES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING ON THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE BY MID MORNING
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THIS WILL BRING SOLID SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AGAIN LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY FOR LAKE
ONTARIO. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEFORE BACKING FURTHER TO NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS PERSISTING.

ICE FISHERMAN AND SNOWMOBILERS WHO VENTURE OUT ON LAKE ERIE SHOULD
BE ADVISED THAT NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MAY RESULT IN
THE PACK ICE SEPARATING FROM THE SHORELINE AND PUSHING OUT INTO THE
LAKE...LEAVING NO ROUTE BACK TO SHORE. FURTHERMORE...THE RECENT WARM
WEATHER AND STRONG WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN DANGEROUS ICE CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR NYZ001>003-010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ043>045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/WCH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 19, 9:58 PM EST, 6 hours 8 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
958 PM EST SAT FEB 19 2011

NYZ001>008-010-011-202100-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
958 PM EST SAT FEB 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY MORNING. SNOW
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY SUNDAY EVENING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
LIKELY FROM THIS STORM...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

JUST A SMALL CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THIS LOW WILL HAVE A BIG
IMPACT ON WHERE THE SNOW TO MIXED PRECIPITATION LINE WILL OCCUR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ012>014-019>021-085-202100-
WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
SOUTHERN ERIE-
958 PM EST SAT FEB 19 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-202100-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
958 PM EST SAT FEB 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

RSH

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 19, 9:55 PM ESTWinter Storm WatchBUFAllegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Livingston, Ontario and 1 more6 hr
Feb 19, 9:56 PM ESTSmall Craft AdvisoryBUF12 hr
Feb 20, 2:54 PM ESTSmall Craft AdvisoryBUF43 hr
Feb 20, 3:03 PM ESTWinter Storm WarningBUFAllegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua17 hr

Nearby

Winter Weather Advisories in New York, 2011Every winter weather advisory in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.