Special Weather Statement, NWS Buffalo, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
746 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWINGS
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST ENDING ACTIVITY. REMAINING COOL AND CLOUDY
ON SUNDAY WITH A STRAY SHOWER BEFORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER PREVAILS
FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 11Z THIS MORNING MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND NEAR NORTHERN
IN AND SOUTHERN MI...WITH SEVERAL OTHER CONVECTIVELY INDUCED LOWS
FOUND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS MAIN LOW WILL LIFT A WARM
FRONT NORTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA TODAY LEAVING MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK IN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE LINGERING THIS HOUR ACROSS THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WHILE ELSEWHERE QUIET ACROSS THE REGION AT
THIS HOUR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BLOSSOM AGAIN LATER THIS
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL TAKE A
BLEND OF GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE...AS THE NAM IS LESS BULLISH WITH
SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY WITH WEAKER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SEVERE INDICES.

WITH ANY MORNING SUNSHINE...AND CAPES 500 TO 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE
CWA THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM AND MAINTAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL
STRUGGLE TO PUSH THROUGH. EXPECT CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WHICH GIVEN MODERATE 0-6 BULK
SHEER COULD YIELD STORMS STRONG TO SEVERE. WITH MID LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FOCUSING ON THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS IN ADDITION TO
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RULE TODAY. RAINFALL OF AT LEAST A 0.50 AN
INCH IS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.
WITH THE RECENT DRY STRETCH MUCH OF THIS WILL SOAK INTO THE GROUND
LIMITING THE FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR CREEKS AND STREAMS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE CWA...WITH A
FEW 80S POSSIBLE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY.

TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY LINGERING TOWARDS DAWN ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND AS SKIES CLEAR PATCHY FOG FORMATION IS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED A SOAKING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM. COLD AIR ADVECTION LATE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY WILL BRING
ANOTHER DECK OF CLOUDS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW YORK. WHILE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED A LATE STRAY
SHOWER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW YORK IS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN FEATURES DURING SUNDAY WILL BE THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND
OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW OVER FAR WESTERN QUEBEC. COOLER AIR FOLLOWING
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING BREEZIER CONDITIONS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
ONLY IN THE 60S. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE LAND AREAS ON SUNDAY WITH LESS CLOUDINESS OVER THE
COOLER AND MORE STABLE LAKES. THERE ARE STILL LOW CHANCE POPS BUT
ALSO MUCH LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...THUS ANY SHOWERS WILL
BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND OFFER LITTLE IN THE WAY OF TOTAL RAINFALL.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL AND WILL SEE SOME CLEARING SKIES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER...CLOUDIER TO ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
LINGERING LOW CHANCE POPS CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER TO THE
LOWER 50S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MONDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
COOL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS AND WILL SEE DEEPER
LAYER MOISTURE SO QPF ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO CENTRAL NY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON MONDAY THAN WAS SUNDAY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY WITH A CLEARING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST. EVEN WITH A NORTHERLY WIND...WE CAN EXPECT
TEMPS TO RECOVER TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON TUESDAY AS MORE SUNSHINE
WILL BE REALIZED THROUGH THE DAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL TAP INTO SLIGHTLY WARMER 850MB
TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO JAMES
BAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES LESS CHILLY WITH LOW
50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES AND
MID 50S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW
FOR SOMEWHAT MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO ADVECT ACROSS OUR REGION FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR... BUT NOT BEFORE WE
ENJOY ANOTHER SUN FILLED DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN CROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE AT LEAST SOME SCT
CONVECTION. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE ECMWF WAS SLOWER AND FURTHER
SOUTH WITH ITS DEPICTION OF THE SHORTWAVE SO ITS SOLUTION IS DRY FOR
THE DAY. THE FINE FOLKS AT THE HYDROPREDICTION CENTER (HPC) CONSIDER
THIS SOLUTION TO BE AN OUTLIER THOUGH...SO WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS
THE GFS AND HPC HAND DRAWN SOLUTIONS.

THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WOULD
THEN PASS ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...SO AT THIS POINT...
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 12Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE LARGELY FOUND ACROSS THE REGION. A
FEW MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
THIS MORNING.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER THE REGION AS
A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN FIRST IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER LATE MORNING AND THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. STILL UNCERTAIN ABOUT
TIMING OF THUNDER...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH -SHRA AND CB UNTIL TIMING
IS MORE CERTAIN.

ALSO UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE WIND SHIFT AS THIS WARM FRONT PUSHES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. PRESENTLY EASTERLY WINDS NORTH
OF THIS WARM FRONT WILL VEER TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE WARM FRONT
PASSES. MOST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS NEAR THE NORTHERN GENESEE VALLEY
WHERE THE LAKE ONTARIO BREEZE MAY ACTUALLY PUSH INLAND AND SHIFT
WINDS TO NORTHWESTERLY BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING. AS SKIES CLEAR PATCHY BR WILL LOWER VISIBILITIES INTO
MVFR...AND IFR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS OF
PRIOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS 2 FEET OR LESS TODAY ACROSS BOTH LAKES
AS SFC GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST
TO THE WEST. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SUNDAY WITH GUSTS AND WAVE
HEIGHTS ON LAKE ONTARIO NEARING SCA LATER SUNDAY. UNCERTAINTY STILL
LINGERS...AND ANY STRONGER FLOW WILL LIKELY PROMPT ISSUING OF SCA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...RSH/WCH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
501 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

NYZ001>006-010>014-019>021-085-120915-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-NORTHERN ERIE-
GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
SOUTHERN ERIE-
501 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ007-008-120915-
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
501 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-120915-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
501 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1021 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

NYZ012-020-085-111515-
CATTARAUGUS NY-ERIE NY-WYOMING NY-
1021 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE AREA...

* AT 1018 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN.  THIS
  STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR COLLINS...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM MAY INCLUDE...
  SPRINGVILLE AND BOSTON...
  EAST CONCORD AND COLDEN...
  HOLLAND AND SARDINIA...
  CHAFFEE AND ARCADE...
  JAVA CENTER...
  EAGLE...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY!

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND COULD
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LAT...LON 4281 7822 4256 7811 4241 7893 4258 7901

AR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1104 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

NYZ012-013-020-021-085-111600-
ALLEGANY NY-CATTARAUGUS NY-ERIE NY-LIVINGSTON NY-WYOMING NY-
1104 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE AREA...

* AT 1100 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS 30 TO 35 MPH...
SMALL HAIL...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
SARDINIA...AND MOVING EAST  AT 35 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY!

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND COULD
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LAT...LON 4266 7792 4239 7793 4242 7868 4262 7869

AR