Alert archive / New York / Lake Effect Snow Watches in 2011

Lake Effect Snow Watch 7, NWS Buffalo, NY

December 7, 20117 counties in New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this lake effect snow watch at Dec 7, 2011, 3:30 PM EST for 7 counties in New York. It took effect at Dec 9, 2011, 12:00 AM EST. It was in force for .

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Dec 7, 2011, 3:30 PM EST (20:30 UTC)
In effect from
Dec 9, 2011, 12:00 AM EST
Expired
Dec 8, 2011, 12:14 PM EST
In force
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

Counties Erie County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Niagara County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Wyoming County, NY

The radar

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 116 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 8.5 hours before the alert went out and 114 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2011-12-07Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2011-12-07The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 1 square meters per square second.1939587897117136156Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
465 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
120 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
1 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
110 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

050 
WWUS41 KBUF 072030
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
330 PM EST WED DEC 7 2011

NYZ001-010>012-085-080430-
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.A.0007.111209T0500Z-111209T2300Z/
NIAGARA-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...
WARSAW...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
330 PM EST WED DEC 7 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. 

* LOCATIONS...MUCH OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER INCLUDING METRO
  BUFFALO.

* TIMING...LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES THURSDAY NIGHT AND 3 TO 5 INCHES
  FRIDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 5 TO 9 INCHES IN THE MOST
  PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL RESULT IN SNOW COVERED
  ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY AT TIMES. THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE
  MAY BE VERY DIFFICULT IN THE BUFFALO METRO AREA.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
  EXACT PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. ONLY A SMALL
  CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION WILL RESULT IN CHANGES TO EXPECTED
  SNOWFALL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-080430-
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.A.0007.111209T0800Z-111210T1100Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
330 PM EST WED DEC 7 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. 

* LOCATIONS...EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION MAINLY FROM THE TUG HILL
  NORTHWARD ACROSS JEFFERSON AND NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTY.

* TIMING...LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 3 INCHES THURSDAY NIGHT...4 TO 6 INCHES
  FRIDAY...AND 3 TO 5 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO STORM
  TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL RESULT IN SNOW COVERED
  ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY AT TIMES.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
  EXACT PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. ONLY A SMALL
  CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION CAN RESULT IN CHANGES TO EXPECTED
  SNOWFALL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK/TMA
3 follow-up statements
462 
WWUS41 KBUF 080252
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
952 PM EST WED DEC 7 2011

NYZ001-010>012-085-081100-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0007.111209T0500Z-111209T2300Z/
NIAGARA-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...
WARSAW...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
952 PM EST WED DEC 7 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...MUCH OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER INCLUDING METRO 
  BUFFALO. 

* TIMING...LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES THURSDAY NIGHT AND 3 TO 5 INCHES 
  FRIDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 5 TO 9 INCHES IN THE MOST 
  PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS. 

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL RESULT IN SNOW COVERED 
  ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY AT TIMES. THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE 
  MAY BE VERY DIFFICULT IN THE BUFFALO METRO AREA. 

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO 
  THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. ONLY A 
  SMALL CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION WILL RESULT IN CHANGES TO 
  EXPECTED SNOWFALL. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-081100-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0007.111209T0800Z-111210T1100Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
952 PM EST WED DEC 7 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION MAINLY FROM THE TUG 
  HILL NORTHWARD ACROSS JEFFERSON AND NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTY. 

* TIMING...LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 3 INCHES THURSDAY NIGHT...4 TO 6 INCHES 
  FRIDAY...AND 3 TO 5 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO STORM 
  TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS. 

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL RESULT IN SNOW COVERED 
  ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY AT TIMES. 

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO 
  THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. ONLY A 
  SMALL CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION CAN RESULT IN CHANGES TO 
  EXPECTED SNOWFALL. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

APFFEL
937 
WWUS41 KBUF 080938
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
438 AM EST THU DEC 8 2011

NYZ001-010>012-085-081745-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0007.111209T0500Z-111209T2300Z/
NIAGARA-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...
WARSAW...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
438 AM EST THU DEC 8 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...MUCH OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER INCLUDING METRO 
  BUFFALO. 

* TIMING...OVERNIGHT THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 3 INCHES OVERNIGHT AND 3 TO 6 INCHES
  FRIDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 5 TO 9 INCHES IN THE MOST
  PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL RESULT IN SNOW COVERED
  ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY AT TIMES. THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE
  MAY BE VERY DIFFICULT IN THE BUFFALO METRO AREA ESPECIALLY
  ACROSS THE NORTH TOWNS AND THE NIAGARA FALLS AREA.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
  A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WILL FORM DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE THURSDAY
  NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE REMAINS SOME SMALL
  UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF LAKE
  EFFECT SNOW. ONLY A SMALL CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION WILL RESULT
  IN CHANGES TO EXPECTED SNOWFALL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-081745-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0007.111209T0800Z-111210T1100Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
438 AM EST THU DEC 8 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION MAINLY FROM THE TUG 
  HILL NORTHWARD ACROSS JEFFERSON AND NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTY. 

* TIMING...LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES TONIGHT...3 TO 5 INCHES
  FRIDAY...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO STORM
  TOTALS OF 7 TO 14 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL RESULT IN SNOW COVERED 
  ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY AT TIMES. 

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
  A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WILL FORM DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY
  NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE REMAINS SOME SMALL
  UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF LAKE
  EFFECT SNOW. ONLY A SMALL CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION WILL RESULT
  IN CHANGES TO EXPECTED SNOWFALL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

THOMAS
986 
WWUS41 KBUF 081714
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1214 PM EST THU DEC 8 2011

NYZ001-010-011-090115-
/O.UPG.KBUF.LE.A.0007.111209T0500Z-111209T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0009.111209T0300Z-111209T2300Z/
NIAGARA-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...BUFFALO...BATAVIA
1214 PM EST THU DEC 8 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM
EST FRIDAY. THIS UPGRADES THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WHICH WAS
PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
  THE NORTHERN SUBURBS OF BUFFALO...SOUTHERN NIAGARA COUNTY...AND
  INLAND TO NORTHWEST GENESEE AND WESTERN ORLEANS COUNTY.

* TIMING...LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES OVERNIGHT AND 4 TO 6 INCHES
  FRIDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 9 INCHES IN THE MOST
  PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL RESULT IN VERY DIFFICULT
  TRAVEL AT TIMES WITH POOR VISIBILITY AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. THE
  WORST DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE OCCURRING DURING THE
  FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE
THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY
VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND
USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT
BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES
AND WATER HEATERS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ007-090115-
/O.UPG.KBUF.LE.A.0007.111209T0800Z-111210T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0009.111209T0600Z-111210T0600Z/
JEFFERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WATERTOWN
1214 PM EST THU DEC 8 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM
EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST
SATURDAY. THIS UPGRADES THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WHICH WAS
PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...JEFFERSON COUNTY.

* TIMING...EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 3 INCHES OVERNIGHT...4 TO 6 INCHES
  FRIDAY...AND 3 TO 5 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO STORM
  TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL RESULT IN VERY DIFFICULT
  TRAVEL AT TIMES WITH POOR VISIBILITY AND SNOW COVERED ROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE
THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY
VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND
USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT
BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES
AND WATER HEATERS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ008-090115-
/O.UPG.KBUF.LE.A.0007.111209T0800Z-111210T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0009.111209T0800Z-111210T0800Z/
LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...LOWVILLE
1214 PM EST THU DEC 8 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 3 AM
EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 3 AM EST
SATURDAY. THIS UPGRADES THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WHICH WAS
PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...LEWIS COUNTY. GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHERN
  HALF OF THE COUNTY.

* TIMING...EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES OVERNIGHT...3 TO 5 INCHES
  FRIDAY...AND 4 TO 6 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO STORM
  TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL RESULT IN VERY DIFFICULT
  TRAVEL AT TIMES WITH POOR VISIBILITY AND SNOW COVERED ROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE
THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY
VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND
USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT
BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES
AND WATER HEATERS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ002-090115-
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0009.111209T0300Z-111209T2300Z/
ORLEANS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...MEDINA
1214 PM EST THU DEC 8 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM
EST FRIDAY. THIS UPGRADES THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WHICH WAS
PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
  THE NORTHERN SUBURBS OF BUFFALO...SOUTHERN NIAGARA COUNTY...AND
  INLAND TO NORTHWEST GENESEE AND WESTERN ORLEANS COUNTY.

* TIMING...LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES OVERNIGHT AND 4 TO 6 INCHES
  FRIDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 9 INCHES IN THE MOST
  PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL RESULT IN VERY DIFFICULT
  TRAVEL AT TIMES WITH POOR VISIBILITY AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. THE
  WORST DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE OCCURRING DURING THE
  FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE
THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY
VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND
USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT
BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES
AND WATER HEATERS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ012-085-090115-
/O.UPG.KBUF.LE.A.0007.111209T0500Z-111209T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.Y.0016.111209T1800Z-111210T0500Z/
WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1214 PM EST THU DEC 8 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO
MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT
EST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT. 

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING COUNTIES.

* TIMING...FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES FRIDAY...AND 3 TO 5 INCHES FRIDAY
  EVENING...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE MOST
  PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...MODERATE SNOW WILL RESULT IN DIFFICULT TRAVEL AT TIMES
  WITH POOR VISIBILITY AND SNOW COVERED ROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ006-090115-
/O.UPG.KBUF.LE.A.0007.111209T0800Z-111210T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.Y.0016.111209T2100Z-111210T1100Z/
OSWEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OSWEGO
1214 PM EST THU DEC 8 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM
EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST
SATURDAY. THIS REPLACES THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WHICH WAS
PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO COUNTY...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
  PORTION OF THE COUNTY.

* TIMING...LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES FRIDAY...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES FRIDAY
  NIGHT...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE MOST
  PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...MODERATE SNOW WILL RESULT IN DIFFICULT TRAVEL AT TIMES
  WITH POOR VISIBILITY AND SNOW COVERED ROADS AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ019-020-090115-
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.Y.0016.111209T2100Z-111210T1100Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN
1214 PM EST THU DEC 8 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM
EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST
SATURDAY. 

* LOCATIONS...CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES.

* TIMING...LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES FRIDAY AND 3 TO 5 INCHES FRIDAY
  NIGHT...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES IN THE MOST
  PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...MODERATE SNOW WILL RESULT IN DIFFICULT TRAVEL AT TIMES
  WITH POOR VISIBILITY AND SNOW COVERED ROADS AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK/TJP/TMA

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this lake effect snow watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this lake effect snow watch went out at Dec 7, 2:27 PM EST, 1 hour 3 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 7, 2:27 PM EST, 1 hour 3 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
227 PM EST WED DEC 7 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG A STALLED EAST COAST FRONT WILL BRING
LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AS THE LOW SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
TONIGHT...THE LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF...THEN GIVE WAY TO LIMITED
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DRIER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SETS UP
EAST OF THE LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE
ON THE LARGE SWATH OF RAIN THAT HAS SET UP WEST OF THE STALLED EAST
COAST FRONT. AS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BE
ADVECTING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INITIAL MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW TO CHANGE TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER. RIGHT NOW...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE OUR SOUTHERN TIER
COUNTIES WILL STILL REMAIN ON THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN PCPN
SHIELD AS A SURFACE WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. A COUPLE
INCHES OF WET SNOW ARE POSSIBLE OVER ALLEGANY COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER THE
CRITERIA NEEDED FOR AN ADVISORY. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW WILL
EXTEND INTO PARTS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY...THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH
COUNTRY...WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH ACCUMULATION EXPECTED FOR
THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

AS THE LOW SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER TONIGHT...THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALSO SETTLE OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL CAUSE
ANY REMAINING SYNOPTIC SCALE SNOW TO CLEAR MOST OF THE CWA BY 06Z.

AS COLDER AIR DEEPENS BEHIND THE LOW LATER TONIGHT...SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES.
WHILE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS ADEQUATE FOR SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOW...THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH REGION IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH DEPARTING NEW ENGLAND LOW. THEREFORE...EXPECT
ACCUMULATIONS TO REMAIN UNDER AN INCH.

ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE NORTH FROM THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES AND CAUSE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST. AT THE SAME TIME...THE MODELS SHOW NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR
ADVECTING EAST ACROSS THE AREA AS THE DAY WEARS ON. AS A
RESULT...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN WHILE LIFTING SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. THE SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE
ERIE SHOULD END AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS LATE
THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A POLAR VORTEX
OVER HUDSON BAY WILL SEND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PINWHEELING ACROSS
THE REGION. THESE SHORTWAVES WILL HELP TO RAISE INVERSION HEIGHTS
AND PROVIDE A SOURCE OF ADDITIONAL LIFT TO ENHANCE LAKE EFFECT.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE FAR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW YORK LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS ACROSS BOTH LAKES WITH REGARDS TO
INSTABILITY AND FETCH ARE FAVORABLE WITH 850MB TEMPS RUNNING AROUND
-10C AND WESTERLY WINDS. HOWEVER DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER THE REGION IS
THE LIMITING FACTOR. WITH THE SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY POSITION OF
THE LOW...THINKING THAT GREATER FOCUS OF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE THE SHORTWAVE MAY ENHANCE
LAKE EFFECT ENOUGH TO GET A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS GOING WITH UP TO
A HALF INCH POSSIBLE. LEFT LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CHAUTAUQUA
RIDGE GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SETUP OVER THE LAKE...THOUGH DRY AIR MAY
KEEP SNOWFALL LIMITED TO JUST A FEW FLURRIES. WITH 850MB TEMPS
AROUND -10C...EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OUT JUST ABOVE FREEZING..WITH MID
30S POSSIBLE NEAR THE LAKES AND THE FINGER LAKES.

CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS LOOK BETTER THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SHOT
OF PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE NATIONS MIDSECTION ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE. WINDS BACKING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY WILL ALSO SHIFT THE FOCUS OF SNOWFALL CHANCES TOWARDS
THE BUFFALO AREA...PARTICULARLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS AREAS
DOWNSTREAM FROM LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO AS THE POTENT SHORTWAVE MAKES
ITS APPROACH. THE SYNOPTIC SETUP CONTINUES TO BE FAVORABLE ACROSS
THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF COLD AIR OVER THE LAKES AND SYNOPTIC LIFT
TO BOOT. HOWEVER IT IS STILL FAR ENOUGH OUT THAT SPECIFICS ARE A
LITTLE SKETCHY AS SLIGHT WIND SHIFTS CAN AFFECT SNOW BAND
PLACEMENT/INTENSITY. I HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP HIGHER POPS OVER THE
BUFFALO AREA LONGER AS MODELS TEND TO VEER THE WINDS WESTERLY A
LITTLE TOO QUICKLY...AS THEY ARE CURRENTLY TRYING TO DO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...EXPECT SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH BANDS MIGRATING SOUTHWARDS TO FOCUS MORE ON
CHAUTAUQUA/OSWEGO COUNTIES EAST OF LAKES ERIE/ONTARIO AS WINDS VEER
WESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT IMMEDIATELY
PRECEDING THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD
SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL OF
CHOICE. ONCE THE SHORTWAVE PASSES...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
SHOULD BRING AN END TO MOST OF THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS...HOWEVER AS
MENTIONED ABOVE THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE IS NOT
COMPLETELY AGREED UPON BY THE MODELS...WITH THE GFS NOT BRINGING IT
THROUGH UNTIL LATER SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT...AND SURFACE RIDGING LATER IN THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL END LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...THEN LOOKS QUIET AND DRY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AN
INTRUSION OF MODIFIED PACIFIC AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA IN THE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME...BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL
WITH 40S QUITE POSSIBLE FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 18Z...THE MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE STALLED EAST COAST
FRONT IS STILL GENERATING WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS A GOOD
PART OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS GENERAL TREND IS SEEN AT
KBUF/KIAG WHERE DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE WEST HAS ALLOWED
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR.

A LARGE SWATH OF RAIN FORMING WEST OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT
SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AS A WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT MOST TAF SITES EAST OF
KIAG/KBUF THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. AS THIS LOW PULLS OUT TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE GRADUALLY FROM WEST
TO EAST...REACHING VFR LEVELS AT MOST TAF SITES NORTH OF KJHW AROUND
03Z.

LATER TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR DEEPENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
OVERNIGHT...SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL SET UP EAST SOUTHEAST
OF THE LAKES. EXPECT LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO END OFF
LAKE ERIE AROUND 12Z THURSDAY. OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WEAKENING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE LIFTING SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE
EFFECT AREAS...EXPECT MAINLY SCT VFR CLOUDS WITH BRISK SOUTHWEST
WINDS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR/IFR EAST OF THE LAKES IN
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS. LOCALLY HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT
SNOW EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST
OF THE LAKES.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELATIVE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE LOWER LAKES WILL
STRENGTHEN LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS A DEVELOPING LOW HEADS
NORTHEAST UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A BRISK WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

SCA WILL ALSO BE ISSUED FOR THE NIAGARA RIVER AND ST LAWRENCE RIVER
FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ001-010>012-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
         FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY
         FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
         FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
         FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY
         FOR LOZ045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY
         FOR SLZ022.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TJP
NEAR TERM...TJP
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...TJP
MARINE...TJP
Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 7, 9:03 AM EST, 6 hours 27 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
903 AM EST WED DEC 7 2011

LOZ030-NYZ001>005-081415-
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-
903 AM EST WED DEC 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO...
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ011>014-021-081415-
GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-ALLEGANY-
903 AM EST WED DEC 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ006>008-081415-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
903 AM EST WED DEC 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ019-020-085-081415-
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
903 AM EST WED DEC 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT AREAS EAST OF LAKE ERIE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-081415-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
903 AM EST WED DEC 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ010-081415-
NORTHERN ERIE-
903 AM EST WED DEC 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT AREAS EAST OF LAKE ERIE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE METRO BUFFALO AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 7, 3:48 AM ESTSmall Craft AdvisoryBUF5 days

Nearby

Lake Effect Snow Watches in New York, 2011Every lake effect snow watch in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.