Alert archive / New York / Lake Effect Snow Watches in 2011

Lake Effect Snow Watch 5, NWS Buffalo, NY

February 7, 2011Jefferson County, Lewis County, Oswego County, New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this lake effect snow watch at Feb 7, 2011, 3:27 PM EST for Jefferson County, Lewis County, Oswego County, New York. It took effect at Feb 9, 2011, 4:00 PM EST. It was in force for .

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Feb 7, 2011, 3:27 PM EST (20:27 UTC)
In effect from
Feb 9, 2011, 4:00 PM EST
Expired
Feb 9, 2011, 4:05 AM EST
In force
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

Counties Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Oswego County, NY

The radar

The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 18 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:27 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 8.5 hours before the alert went out and 205 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Albany, NY at 12:00Z on 2011-02-07Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Albany, NY at 12:00Z on 2011-02-07The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 85 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
774 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
48 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
85 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
209 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

109 
WWUS41 KBUF 072027
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
327 PM EST MON FEB 7 2011

NYZ006>008-080430-
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.A.0005.110208T2300Z-110210T1600Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
327 PM EST MON FEB 7 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. 

STEADY SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL EVOLVE INTO
LAKE EFFECT SNOW TUESDAY EVENING.


* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN OSWEGO...SOUTHERN JEFFERSON AND MUCH OF
  LEWIS COUNTY.

* TIMING...TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...A FOOT OR MORE IN MOST PERSISTENT BANDS.

* WINDS (OPTIONAL)...WEST 15 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

* VISIBILITIES (OPTIONAL)...BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE IN BANDS.

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS. I-81 FROM ADAMS TO
  CENTRAL SQUARE.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

SFM
6 follow-up statements
233 
WWUS41 KBUF 080317
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1017 PM EST MON FEB 7 2011

NYZ006>008-081130-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0005.110208T2300Z-110210T1600Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
1017 PM EST MON FEB 7 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. 

STEADY SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL EVOLVE INTO
LAKE EFFECT SNOW TUESDAY EVENING.

* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO...SOUTHERN JEFFERSON AND MUCH OF LEWIS
  COUNTY.

* TIMING...TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...A FOOT OR MORE IN MOST PERSISTENT BANDS.

* WINDS (OPTIONAL)...WEST 15 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

* VISIBILITIES (OPTIONAL)...BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE IN BANDS.

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS. I-81 FROM ADAMS TO 
  CENTRAL SQUARE. 

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

RSH
232 
WWUS41 KBUF 080849
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
349 AM EST TUE FEB 8 2011

NYZ006>008-081700-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0005.110208T2300Z-110210T1600Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
349 AM EST TUE FEB 8 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. 

STEADY SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL EVOLVE INTO
LAKE EFFECT SNOW TUESDAY EVENING.

* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO...SOUTHERN JEFFERSON AND MUCH OF LEWIS 
  COUNTY. 

* TIMING...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...A FOOT OR MORE IN MOST PERSISTENT BANDS.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

* VISIBILITIES (OPTIONAL)...BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE IN BANDS.

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS. I-81 FROM ADAMS TO 
  CENTRAL SQUARE. 

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$
255 
WWUS41 KBUF 081640
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1140 AM EST TUE FEB 8 2011

NYZ006-090045-
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.Y.0011.110208T1640Z-110209T0900Z/
/O.EXT.KBUF.LE.A.0005.110209T2100Z-110210T2100Z/
OSWEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OSWEGO
1140 AM EST TUE FEB 8 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY. THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 

* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO COUNTY. 

* TIMING...LAKE SNOW OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
  COUNTY THROUGH EARLY EVENING THEN LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
  COUNTY MID EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN
  PERSISTENT BANDS. 1 TO 2 FEET POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
  THROUGH THURSDAY IN PERSISTENT BANDS.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH NEAR LAKE
  ONTARIO.

* VISIBILITIES...BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES IN BANDS.

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITH SNOW
  COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY...INCLUDING INTERSTATE 81
  FROM BREWERTON TO PULASKI.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH FOR THE WATCH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ004-005-090045-
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.Y.0011.110208T1640Z-110209T0400Z/
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN
1140 AM EST TUE FEB 8 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING. 

* LOCATIONS...WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTY. GREATEST AMOUNTS
  EAST OF SODUS BAY.

* TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES IN PERSISTENT BANDS.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH NEAR LAKE ONTARIO
  PRODUCING SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES IN BANDS.

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITH SNOW
  COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ007-008-090045-
/O.EXT.KBUF.LE.A.0005.110209T2100Z-110210T2100Z/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
1140 AM EST TUE FEB 8 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 

* LOCATIONS...JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES WITH THE GREATEST
  AMOUNTS ON THE TUG HILL.

* TIMING...LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 FEET IN PERSISTENT BANDS.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH PRODUCING
  BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

* VISIBILITIES...BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES IN BANDS.

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITH SNOW
  COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY...INCLUDING INTERSTATE 81 FROM
  WATERTOWN TO PULASKI. 

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK/RSH
398 
WWUS41 KBUF 082028
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
328 PM EST TUE FEB 8 2011

NYZ019>021-090430-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WC.Y.0003.110209T0500Z-110209T1500Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE
328 PM EST TUE FEB 8 2011

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM
EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY. 

* LOCATIONS...WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.

* TIMING...LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...AROUND 15 BELOW ZERO AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE
  ANY EXTENDED EXPOSURE TO THE COLD DANGEROUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN STRONG WIND WILL COMBINE
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES TO CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR
EXPOSED SKIN. THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE IT IS 15 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO OR COLDER FOR A PERIOD OF SEVERAL HOURS. IF YOU WILL
BE OUTDOORS USE COMMON SENSE AND DRESS WARMLY...MAKING SURE THAT
ALL EXPOSED SKIN IS COVERED. IF POSSIBLE...AVOID PROLONGED
EXPOSURE TO THE COLD TO PREVENT FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ006-090430-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-110209T0900Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0005.110209T2100Z-110210T2100Z/
OSWEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OSWEGO
328 PM EST TUE FEB 8 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 

* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO COUNTY.

* TIMING...THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE ADVISORY. LATE WEDNESDAY
  AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THE WATCH.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
  TONIGHT IN PERSISTENT BANDS. 1 TO 2 FEET POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
  AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY IN PERSISTENT BANDS.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH PRODUCING
  BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

* VISIBILITIES...BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES IN BANDS.

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITH SNOW 
  COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY...INCLUDING INTERSTATE 81 
  FROM BREWERTON TO PULASKI. 

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH FOR THE WATCH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ004-005-090400-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-110209T0400Z/
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN
328 PM EST TUE FEB 8 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST
THIS EVENING...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST
THIS EVENING. 

* LOCATIONS...WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTY. GREATEST AMOUNTS 
  EAST OF SODUS BAY. 

* TIMING...THROUGH THIS EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES IN PERSISTENT BANDS.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH NEAR LAKE
  ONTARIO PRODUCING SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES IN BANDS.

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITH SNOW 
  COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ007-008-090430-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0005.110209T2100Z-110210T2100Z/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
328 PM EST TUE FEB 8 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 

* LOCATIONS...JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES WITH THE GREATEST 
  AMOUNTS ON THE TUG HILL. 

* TIMING...LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 FEET IN PERSISTENT BANDS.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH PRODUCING 
  BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. 

* VISIBILITIES...BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES IN BANDS.

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITH SNOW 
  COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY...INCLUDING INTERSTATE 81 
  FROM WATERTOWN TO PULASKI. 

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK
851 
WWUS41 KBUF 090336
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1036 PM EST TUE FEB 8 2011

NYZ004-005-090445-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-110209T0400Z/
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN
1036 PM EST TUE FEB 8 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOWS HAVE LIFTED OUT OF THE REGION.

$$

NYZ006-091145-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-110209T0900Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0005.110209T2100Z-110210T2100Z/
OSWEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OSWEGO
1036 PM EST TUE FEB 8 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 

* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO COUNTY.

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE ADVISORY. LATE
  WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THE WATCH.

* ACCUMULATIONS...A TOTAL OF 4 TO 7 INCHES THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
  MORNING IN PERSISTENT BANDS. 1 TO 2 FEET POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
  AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY IN PERSISTENT BANDS.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH PRODUCING 
  BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. 

* VISIBILITIES...BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES IN BANDS.

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITH SNOW 
  COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY...INCLUDING INTERSTATE 81 
  FROM BREWERTON TO PULASKI. 

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH FOR THE WATCH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ019>021-091145-
/O.CON.KBUF.WC.Y.0003.110209T0500Z-110209T1500Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE
1036 PM EST TUE FEB 8 2011

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY. 

* LOCATIONS...WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.

* TIMING...LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...AROUND 15 BELOW ZERO AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL 
  MAKE ANY EXTENDED EXPOSURE TO THE COLD DANGEROUS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN STRONG WIND WILL COMBINE
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES TO CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR
EXPOSED SKIN. THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE IT IS 15 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO OR COLDER FOR A PERIOD OF SEVERAL HOURS. IF YOU WILL
BE OUTDOORS USE COMMON SENSE AND DRESS WARMLY...MAKING SURE THAT
ALL EXPOSED SKIN IS COVERED. IF POSSIBLE...AVOID PROLONGED
EXPOSURE TO THE COLD TO PREVENT FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ007-008-091145-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0005.110209T2100Z-110210T2100Z/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
1036 PM EST TUE FEB 8 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 

* LOCATIONS...JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES WITH THE GREATEST 
  AMOUNTS ON THE TUG HILL. 

* TIMING...LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 FEET IN PERSISTENT BANDS.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH PRODUCING 
  BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. 

* VISIBILITIES...BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES IN BANDS.

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITH SNOW 
  COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY...INCLUDING INTERSTATE 81 
  FROM WATERTOWN TO PULASKI. 

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

APFFEL
533 
WWUS41 KBUF 090905
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
405 AM EST WED FEB 9 2011

NYZ006-091700-
/O.EXP.KBUF.LE.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-110209T0900Z/
/O.UPG.KBUF.LE.A.0005.110209T2100Z-110210T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0007.110209T2000Z-110210T2300Z/
OSWEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OSWEGO
405 AM EST WED FEB 9 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
6 PM EST THURSDAY...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
6 PM EST THURSDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY AND LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WATCH ARE NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE TUG
  HILL.

* TIMING...LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 FEET IN THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOWS.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH PRODUCING
  BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

* VISIBILITIES...BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...EXTREMELY DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITH
  SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY...ESPECIALLY ALONG NORTH-
  SOUTH HIGHWAYS SUCH AS INTERSTATE 81.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE
THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY
VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND
USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT
BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES
AND WATER HEATERS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ007-008-091700-
/O.UPG.KBUF.LE.A.0005.110209T2100Z-110210T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0007.110209T2000Z-110210T2300Z/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
405 AM EST WED FEB 9 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
6 PM EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
6 PM EST THURSDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT. 

* LOCATIONS...JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES...WITH THE GREATEST
  IMPACT EXPECTED ACROSS THE TUG HILL. 

* TIMING...LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 FEET IN THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOWS.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH PRODUCING
  BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

* VISIBILITIES...BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...EXTREMELY DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITH
  SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY...ESPECIALLY ALONG NORTH-
  SOUTH HIGHWAYS SUCH AS INTERSTATE 81.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE
THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY
VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND
USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT
BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES
AND WATER HEATERS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ019>021-091500-
/O.CON.KBUF.WC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-110209T1500Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE
405 AM EST WED FEB 9 2011

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING. 

* LOCATIONS...WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.

* TIMING...THROUGH 10 AM THIS MORNING.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...AS LOW AS 15 BELOW ZERO AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL MAKE
  ANY EXTENDED EXPOSURE TO THE COLD DANGEROUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN STRONG WIND WILL COMBINE
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES TO CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR
EXPOSED SKIN. THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE IT IS 15 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO OR COLDER FOR A PERIOD OF SEVERAL HOURS. IF YOU WILL
BE OUTDOORS USE COMMON SENSE AND DRESS WARMLY...MAKING SURE THAT
ALL EXPOSED SKIN IS COVERED. IF POSSIBLE...AVOID PROLONGED
EXPOSURE TO THE COLD TO PREVENT FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

JJR

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this lake effect snow watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this lake effect snow watch went out at Feb 7, 11:04 AM EST, 4 hours 23 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 7, 11:04 AM EST, 4 hours 23 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1104 AM EST MON FEB 7 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AXIS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION. THE LOW
WILL INTENSIFY AS IT REACHES THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...DRAGGING A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MORE
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION...WITH PERHAPS SOME HEAVIER SNOWS IN LAKE
EFFECT OFF LAKE ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. COLD AIR WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DEEPEN
SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD EASTERN PA OVERNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD BUT LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHEAST INTO OH. EXPECT THIS TO AFFECT
MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY...WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF
PRECIPITATION EAST OF A LINE FROM ABOUT CATTARAUGUS TO LEWIS
COUNTY. SOME PRECIPITATION IS ALSO POSSIBLE WEST OF THAT LINE AS
WELL...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER SMALL. HAVE HIGH PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION EVERYWHERE FOR TODAY BUT WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS AND
NEGLIGIBLE SNOW AMOUNTS DUE TO NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

THE TIME PERIOD FOR THE MOST STEADY...AREA-WIDE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE FOR THE EVENING AND/OR OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE AREA OF
DEFORMATION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL BRING A GENERAL LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
TUESDAY AND GET ABSORBED BY A DEEPER LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING AWAY
FROM NEW ENGLAND. A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
DEEPEN ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES TUESDAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
PLUMMETING TO ABOUT -20C BY TUESDAY EVENING.

A POTENT SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF A PASSING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BRING A GENERAL AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE CWA.
SUPERIMPOSED ON THIS...A WELL ALIGNED NORTHWEST WILL MAINTAIN
STEADIER LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.  INITIALLY...EXPECT
THE MAIN AREA OF LAKE SNOWS TO BE IN PLACE FROM ROCHESTER TO
SYRACUSE...THEN SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTHWARD TO THE WAYNE-OSWEGO COUNTY
CORRIDOR DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK TO
ABOUT 290-300 DEGREES. THEREAFTER...FURTHER BACKING OF THE FLOW TO
250-260 DEGREES WILL DIRECT THE LAKE SNOWS NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS POINT...EXPECT THE LAKE SNOWS TO BE MOST ORGANIZED FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WHEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE
DEEPEST...WITH SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
BALANCE OF THE PERIOD AS INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER AND THE ATMOSPHERE
DRIES OUT SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE 4-5 KFT. WHILE THIS SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS IN CHECK...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH TO RESULT IN
ADVISORY TYPE ACCUMULATIONS FROM EASTERN WAYNE THROUGH SOUTHERN
OSWEGO COUNTY ON TUESDAY. SNOWFALL MAY REACH ADVISORY ACCUMULATIONS
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE LONGER FETCH ACROSS
THE LAKE. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...EXPECT MAINLY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/NUISANCE ACCUMS THAT WILL TEND TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH WITH TIME.

GIVEN THE MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WORKING INTO THE AREA...TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE LEVELS FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. UNDER STEADY COLD AIR ADVECTION...READINGS SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE TEENS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS TUESDAY NIGHT. COUPLED WITH THESE TEMPERATURES...BRISK WINDS
WILL GENERATE SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE COLD
TEMPERATURES AS 850 MB TEMPS RECOVER ONLY SLIGHTLY BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DIPPING BACK TO THE -16C TO -20C RANGE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT DROPS
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. A RATHER BRISK WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPART A SIGNIFICANT CHILL TO THE AIR DURING
WEDNESDAY...WHILE ALSO HELPING TO MAINTAIN SOME WEAK LAKE SNOWS EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO...THOUGH THESE SHOULD AGAIN BE LIMITED BY THE RATHER
DRY NATURE OF OUR AIRMASS. THESE LAKE SNOWS SHOULD THEN EVENTUALLY
FALL APART WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE-BASED RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS
THE LOWER LAKES WITH INCREASING SHEAR AND SUBSIDENCE...WHILE LIGHTER
WINDS AND THE VERY COLD AIRMASS SET THE STAGE FOR WHAT MAY BE THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO
EXPERIENCE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND
SOUTHERN TIER POSSIBLY DROPPING BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE RELATIVELY DRY
AND QUIET CONDITIONS FOR OUR AREA AS THE NEXT COASTAL SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINAS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST WELL OFFSHORE OF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHILE SURFACE RIDGING DRIFTS SOUTHEAST FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS. ON THIS TRACK...THE COASTAL LOW WILL
HAVE NO REAL IMPACT ON OUR AREA...WITH THE COLD AND DRY WESTERLY
FLOW BEHIND IT ONLY LEADING TO SOME CONTINUED WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PLENTY COLD HOWEVER
AS 850 MB TEMPS WILL LINGER IN THE -16C TO -20C RANGE...RESULTING IN
DAYTIME HIGHS REMAINING LOCKED IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

IN CONTRAST...THE SECOND HALF OF THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE
BEGINNING OF WHAT COULD FINALLY BE A LONG-AWAITED MAJOR PATTERN
CHANGE. FOR THE THIRD DAY IN A ROW NOW...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SUGGESTING THAT THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC... ALLOWING BROAD RIDGING TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS WOULD SET UP A RATHER SIGNIFICANT
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ACROSS OUR AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH
WOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY
SATURDAY...AND POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY. WHILE THE
WARM ADVECTION COULD ALSO RESULT IN A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW FROM TIME TO
TIME...A GOOD CHUNK OF THIS PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

MVFR AND SOME IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI
REGION TO EASTERN PA. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE COMMON...PARTICULARLY
LATE TODAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR IFR CONDITIONS FOR VISIBILITY IN SNOW STRETCHING EAST OF A
LINE FROM KJHW TO KGTB. HOWEVER...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
TIMES WEST OF THIS LINE AS WELL.

.OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY MVFR IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR IN LAKE SNOW
SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY EAST OF LAKE ERIE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH OF THE LAKES. WIND WILL INCREASE RATHER GRADUALLY LATE TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY...AS A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP. EXPECT
STRONG SMALL CRAFT...TO MARGINAL GALES ON LAKE ONTARIO LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THOUGH A DECENT FLOW IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
AS HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...JJR/TJP
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...APFFEL/ZAFF
MARINE...APFFEL/TJP
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 7, 5:14 AM EST, 10 hours 13 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
514 AM EST MON FEB 7 2011

NYZ001>003-010>014-019>021-085-081015-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-
ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
514 AM EST MON FEB 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

COLDER AIR FOLLOWING A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER
MONROE AND WAYNE COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ONGOING LAKE SNOWS COULD BRING ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES TUESDAY TO
AREAS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH WILL CREATE VERY POOR VISIBILITY AND
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ004>008-081015-
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
514 AM EST MON FEB 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

COLDER AIR FOLLOWING A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ONGOING LAKE SNOWS COULD BRING ANOTHER 3 TO 5 INCHES TUESDAY TO
AREAS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...ESPECIALLY FROM EASTERN WAYNE TO
SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH WILL CREATE VERY POOR VISIBILITY AND
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

THE STEADIER LAKE SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT
AND IMPACT AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-081015-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
514 AM EST MON FEB 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 7, 3:21 PM ESTSmall Craft AdvisoryBUF37 hr

Nearby

Lake Effect Snow Watches in New York, 2011Every lake effect snow watch in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.