Alert archive / New York / Lake Effect Snow Watches in 2011
Lake Effect Snow Watch 5, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this lake effect snow watch at Feb 7, 2011, 3:27 PM EST for Jefferson County, Lewis County, Oswego County, New York. It took effect at Feb 9, 2011, 4:00 PM EST. It was in force for .
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 7, 2011, 3:27 PM EST (20:27 UTC)
- In effect from
- Feb 9, 2011, 4:00 PM EST
- Expired
- Feb 9, 2011, 4:05 AM EST
- In force
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
Counties Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Oswego County, NY
The radar
The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 18 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:27 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 8.5 hours before the alert went out and 205 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 774 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 48 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 85 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 209 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
109 WWUS41 KBUF 072027 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 327 PM EST MON FEB 7 2011 NYZ006>008-080430- /O.NEW.KBUF.LE.A.0005.110208T2300Z-110210T1600Z/ OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE 327 PM EST MON FEB 7 2011 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. STEADY SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL EVOLVE INTO LAKE EFFECT SNOW TUESDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS...NORTHERN OSWEGO...SOUTHERN JEFFERSON AND MUCH OF LEWIS COUNTY. * TIMING...TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. * ACCUMULATIONS...A FOOT OR MORE IN MOST PERSISTENT BANDS. * WINDS (OPTIONAL)...WEST 15 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. * VISIBILITIES (OPTIONAL)...BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE IN BANDS. * IMPACTS...DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS. I-81 FROM ADAMS TO CENTRAL SQUARE. * FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$ SFM
6 follow-up statements
233 WWUS41 KBUF 080317 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1017 PM EST MON FEB 7 2011 NYZ006>008-081130- /O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0005.110208T2300Z-110210T1600Z/ OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE 1017 PM EST MON FEB 7 2011 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. STEADY SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL EVOLVE INTO LAKE EFFECT SNOW TUESDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS...OSWEGO...SOUTHERN JEFFERSON AND MUCH OF LEWIS COUNTY. * TIMING...TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. * ACCUMULATIONS...A FOOT OR MORE IN MOST PERSISTENT BANDS. * WINDS (OPTIONAL)...WEST 15 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. * VISIBILITIES (OPTIONAL)...BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE IN BANDS. * IMPACTS...DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS. I-81 FROM ADAMS TO CENTRAL SQUARE. * FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$ RSH
232 WWUS41 KBUF 080849 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 349 AM EST TUE FEB 8 2011 NYZ006>008-081700- /O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0005.110208T2300Z-110210T1600Z/ OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE 349 AM EST TUE FEB 8 2011 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. STEADY SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL EVOLVE INTO LAKE EFFECT SNOW TUESDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS...OSWEGO...SOUTHERN JEFFERSON AND MUCH OF LEWIS COUNTY. * TIMING...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. * ACCUMULATIONS...A FOOT OR MORE IN MOST PERSISTENT BANDS. * WINDS...WEST 15 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. * VISIBILITIES (OPTIONAL)...BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE IN BANDS. * IMPACTS...DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS. I-81 FROM ADAMS TO CENTRAL SQUARE. * FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$
255 WWUS41 KBUF 081640 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1140 AM EST TUE FEB 8 2011 NYZ006-090045- /O.NEW.KBUF.LE.Y.0011.110208T1640Z-110209T0900Z/ /O.EXT.KBUF.LE.A.0005.110209T2100Z-110210T2100Z/ OSWEGO- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OSWEGO 1140 AM EST TUE FEB 8 2011 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY... ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. * LOCATIONS...OSWEGO COUNTY. * TIMING...LAKE SNOW OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY THROUGH EARLY EVENING THEN LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE COUNTY MID EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. * ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN PERSISTENT BANDS. 1 TO 2 FEET POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY IN PERSISTENT BANDS. * WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH NEAR LAKE ONTARIO. * VISIBILITIES...BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES IN BANDS. * IMPACTS...DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY...INCLUDING INTERSTATE 81 FROM BREWERTON TO PULASKI. * FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH FOR THE WATCH. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$ NYZ004-005-090045- /O.NEW.KBUF.LE.Y.0011.110208T1640Z-110209T0400Z/ WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN 1140 AM EST TUE FEB 8 2011 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING. * LOCATIONS...WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTY. GREATEST AMOUNTS EAST OF SODUS BAY. * TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES IN PERSISTENT BANDS. * WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH NEAR LAKE ONTARIO PRODUCING SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. * VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES IN BANDS. * IMPACTS...DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$ NYZ007-008-090045- /O.EXT.KBUF.LE.A.0005.110209T2100Z-110210T2100Z/ JEFFERSON-LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE 1140 AM EST TUE FEB 8 2011 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. * LOCATIONS...JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ON THE TUG HILL. * TIMING...LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. * ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 FEET IN PERSISTENT BANDS. * WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH PRODUCING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. * VISIBILITIES...BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES IN BANDS. * IMPACTS...DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY...INCLUDING INTERSTATE 81 FROM WATERTOWN TO PULASKI. * FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$ HITCHCOCK/RSH
398 WWUS41 KBUF 082028 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 328 PM EST TUE FEB 8 2011 NYZ019>021-090430- /O.NEW.KBUF.WC.Y.0003.110209T0500Z-110209T1500Z/ CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE 328 PM EST TUE FEB 8 2011 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY. * LOCATIONS...WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. * TIMING...LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. * WIND CHILL VALUES...AROUND 15 BELOW ZERO AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE ANY EXTENDED EXPOSURE TO THE COLD DANGEROUS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN STRONG WIND WILL COMBINE WITH COLD TEMPERATURES TO CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR EXPOSED SKIN. THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE IT IS 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO OR COLDER FOR A PERIOD OF SEVERAL HOURS. IF YOU WILL BE OUTDOORS USE COMMON SENSE AND DRESS WARMLY...MAKING SURE THAT ALL EXPOSED SKIN IS COVERED. IF POSSIBLE...AVOID PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO THE COLD TO PREVENT FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$ NYZ006-090430- /O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-110209T0900Z/ /O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0005.110209T2100Z-110210T2100Z/ OSWEGO- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OSWEGO 328 PM EST TUE FEB 8 2011 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY... ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. * LOCATIONS...OSWEGO COUNTY. * TIMING...THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE ADVISORY. LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THE WATCH. * ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT IN PERSISTENT BANDS. 1 TO 2 FEET POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY IN PERSISTENT BANDS. * WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH PRODUCING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. * VISIBILITIES...BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES IN BANDS. * IMPACTS...DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY...INCLUDING INTERSTATE 81 FROM BREWERTON TO PULASKI. * FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH FOR THE WATCH. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$ NYZ004-005-090400- /O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-110209T0400Z/ WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN 328 PM EST TUE FEB 8 2011 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING. * LOCATIONS...WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTY. GREATEST AMOUNTS EAST OF SODUS BAY. * TIMING...THROUGH THIS EVENING. * ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES IN PERSISTENT BANDS. * WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH NEAR LAKE ONTARIO PRODUCING SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. * VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES IN BANDS. * IMPACTS...DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$ NYZ007-008-090430- /O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0005.110209T2100Z-110210T2100Z/ JEFFERSON-LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE 328 PM EST TUE FEB 8 2011 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. * LOCATIONS...JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ON THE TUG HILL. * TIMING...LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. * ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 FEET IN PERSISTENT BANDS. * WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH PRODUCING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. * VISIBILITIES...BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES IN BANDS. * IMPACTS...DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY...INCLUDING INTERSTATE 81 FROM WATERTOWN TO PULASKI. * FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$ HITCHCOCK
851 WWUS41 KBUF 090336 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1036 PM EST TUE FEB 8 2011 NYZ004-005-090445- /O.CAN.KBUF.LE.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-110209T0400Z/ WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN 1036 PM EST TUE FEB 8 2011 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS HAVE LIFTED OUT OF THE REGION. $$ NYZ006-091145- /O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-110209T0900Z/ /O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0005.110209T2100Z-110210T2100Z/ OSWEGO- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OSWEGO 1036 PM EST TUE FEB 8 2011 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY... ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. * LOCATIONS...OSWEGO COUNTY. * TIMING...THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE ADVISORY. LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THE WATCH. * ACCUMULATIONS...A TOTAL OF 4 TO 7 INCHES THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN PERSISTENT BANDS. 1 TO 2 FEET POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY IN PERSISTENT BANDS. * WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH PRODUCING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. * VISIBILITIES...BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES IN BANDS. * IMPACTS...DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY...INCLUDING INTERSTATE 81 FROM BREWERTON TO PULASKI. * FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH FOR THE WATCH. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$ NYZ019>021-091145- /O.CON.KBUF.WC.Y.0003.110209T0500Z-110209T1500Z/ CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE 1036 PM EST TUE FEB 8 2011 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY... A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY. * LOCATIONS...WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. * TIMING...LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. * WIND CHILL VALUES...AROUND 15 BELOW ZERO AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE ANY EXTENDED EXPOSURE TO THE COLD DANGEROUS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN STRONG WIND WILL COMBINE WITH COLD TEMPERATURES TO CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR EXPOSED SKIN. THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE IT IS 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO OR COLDER FOR A PERIOD OF SEVERAL HOURS. IF YOU WILL BE OUTDOORS USE COMMON SENSE AND DRESS WARMLY...MAKING SURE THAT ALL EXPOSED SKIN IS COVERED. IF POSSIBLE...AVOID PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO THE COLD TO PREVENT FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$ NYZ007-008-091145- /O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0005.110209T2100Z-110210T2100Z/ JEFFERSON-LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE 1036 PM EST TUE FEB 8 2011 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. * LOCATIONS...JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ON THE TUG HILL. * TIMING...LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. * ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 FEET IN PERSISTENT BANDS. * WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH PRODUCING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. * VISIBILITIES...BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES IN BANDS. * IMPACTS...DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY...INCLUDING INTERSTATE 81 FROM WATERTOWN TO PULASKI. * FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$ APFFEL
533 WWUS41 KBUF 090905 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 405 AM EST WED FEB 9 2011 NYZ006-091700- /O.EXP.KBUF.LE.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-110209T0900Z/ /O.UPG.KBUF.LE.A.0005.110209T2100Z-110210T2100Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0007.110209T2000Z-110210T2300Z/ OSWEGO- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OSWEGO 405 AM EST WED FEB 9 2011 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY... ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH ARE NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE TUG HILL. * TIMING...LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. * ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 FEET IN THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOWS. * WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH PRODUCING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. * VISIBILITIES...BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...EXTREMELY DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY...ESPECIALLY ALONG NORTH- SOUTH HIGHWAYS SUCH AS INTERSTATE 81. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES AND WATER HEATERS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$ NYZ007-008-091700- /O.UPG.KBUF.LE.A.0005.110209T2100Z-110210T2100Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0007.110209T2000Z-110210T2300Z/ JEFFERSON-LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE 405 AM EST WED FEB 9 2011 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES...WITH THE GREATEST IMPACT EXPECTED ACROSS THE TUG HILL. * TIMING...LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. * ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 FEET IN THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOWS. * WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH PRODUCING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. * VISIBILITIES...BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...EXTREMELY DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY...ESPECIALLY ALONG NORTH- SOUTH HIGHWAYS SUCH AS INTERSTATE 81. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES AND WATER HEATERS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$ NYZ019>021-091500- /O.CON.KBUF.WC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-110209T1500Z/ CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE 405 AM EST WED FEB 9 2011 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING... A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING. * LOCATIONS...WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. * TIMING...THROUGH 10 AM THIS MORNING. * WIND CHILL VALUES...AS LOW AS 15 BELOW ZERO AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL MAKE ANY EXTENDED EXPOSURE TO THE COLD DANGEROUS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN STRONG WIND WILL COMBINE WITH COLD TEMPERATURES TO CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR EXPOSED SKIN. THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE IT IS 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO OR COLDER FOR A PERIOD OF SEVERAL HOURS. IF YOU WILL BE OUTDOORS USE COMMON SENSE AND DRESS WARMLY...MAKING SURE THAT ALL EXPOSED SKIN IS COVERED. IF POSSIBLE...AVOID PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO THE COLD TO PREVENT FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$ JJR
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this lake effect snow watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this lake effect snow watch went out at Feb 7, 11:04 AM EST, 4 hours 23 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 7, 11:04 AM EST, 4 hours 23 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1104 AM EST MON FEB 7 2011 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK AXIS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT REACHES THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MORE LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION...WITH PERHAPS SOME HEAVIER SNOWS IN LAKE EFFECT OFF LAKE ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. COLD AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD EASTERN PA OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD BUT LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHEAST INTO OH. EXPECT THIS TO AFFECT MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY...WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION EAST OF A LINE FROM ABOUT CATTARAUGUS TO LEWIS COUNTY. SOME PRECIPITATION IS ALSO POSSIBLE WEST OF THAT LINE AS WELL...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER SMALL. HAVE HIGH PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION EVERYWHERE FOR TODAY BUT WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS AND NEGLIGIBLE SNOW AMOUNTS DUE TO NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES. THE TIME PERIOD FOR THE MOST STEADY...AREA-WIDE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE FOR THE EVENING AND/OR OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE AREA OF DEFORMATION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL BRING A GENERAL LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY AND GET ABSORBED BY A DEEPER LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF MUCH COLDER AIR WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES TUESDAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING TO ABOUT -20C BY TUESDAY EVENING. A POTENT SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF A PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A GENERAL AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE CWA. SUPERIMPOSED ON THIS...A WELL ALIGNED NORTHWEST WILL MAINTAIN STEADIER LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. INITIALLY...EXPECT THE MAIN AREA OF LAKE SNOWS TO BE IN PLACE FROM ROCHESTER TO SYRACUSE...THEN SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTHWARD TO THE WAYNE-OSWEGO COUNTY CORRIDOR DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK TO ABOUT 290-300 DEGREES. THEREAFTER...FURTHER BACKING OF THE FLOW TO 250-260 DEGREES WILL DIRECT THE LAKE SNOWS NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...EXPECT THE LAKE SNOWS TO BE MOST ORGANIZED FOR A BRIEF PERIOD EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WHEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST...WITH SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD AS INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER AND THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE 4-5 KFT. WHILE THIS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS IN CHECK...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH TO RESULT IN ADVISORY TYPE ACCUMULATIONS FROM EASTERN WAYNE THROUGH SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY ON TUESDAY. SNOWFALL MAY REACH ADVISORY ACCUMULATIONS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE LONGER FETCH ACROSS THE LAKE. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/NUISANCE ACCUMS THAT WILL TEND TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH TIME. GIVEN THE MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WORKING INTO THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE LEVELS FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UNDER STEADY COLD AIR ADVECTION...READINGS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE TEENS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TUESDAY NIGHT. COUPLED WITH THESE TEMPERATURES...BRISK WINDS WILL GENERATE SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE COLD TEMPERATURES AS 850 MB TEMPS RECOVER ONLY SLIGHTLY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE DIPPING BACK TO THE -16C TO -20C RANGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. A RATHER BRISK WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPART A SIGNIFICANT CHILL TO THE AIR DURING WEDNESDAY...WHILE ALSO HELPING TO MAINTAIN SOME WEAK LAKE SNOWS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...THOUGH THESE SHOULD AGAIN BE LIMITED BY THE RATHER DRY NATURE OF OUR AIRMASS. THESE LAKE SNOWS SHOULD THEN EVENTUALLY FALL APART WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE-BASED RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WITH INCREASING SHEAR AND SUBSIDENCE...WHILE LIGHTER WINDS AND THE VERY COLD AIRMASS SET THE STAGE FOR WHAT MAY BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN TIER POSSIBLY DROPPING BELOW ZERO. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE RELATIVELY DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS FOR OUR AREA AS THE NEXT COASTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINAS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST WELL OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHILE SURFACE RIDGING DRIFTS SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS. ON THIS TRACK...THE COASTAL LOW WILL HAVE NO REAL IMPACT ON OUR AREA...WITH THE COLD AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND IT ONLY LEADING TO SOME CONTINUED WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PLENTY COLD HOWEVER AS 850 MB TEMPS WILL LINGER IN THE -16C TO -20C RANGE...RESULTING IN DAYTIME HIGHS REMAINING LOCKED IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. IN CONTRAST...THE SECOND HALF OF THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE BEGINNING OF WHAT COULD FINALLY BE A LONG-AWAITED MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE. FOR THE THIRD DAY IN A ROW NOW...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND WESTERN ATLANTIC... ALLOWING BROAD RIDGING TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS WOULD SET UP A RATHER SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ACROSS OUR AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH WOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY SATURDAY...AND POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY. WHILE THE WARM ADVECTION COULD ALSO RESULT IN A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME...A GOOD CHUNK OF THIS PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE DRY. && .AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MVFR AND SOME IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI REGION TO EASTERN PA. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE COMMON...PARTICULARLY LATE TODAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR CONDITIONS FOR VISIBILITY IN SNOW STRETCHING EAST OF A LINE FROM KJHW TO KGTB. HOWEVER...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES WEST OF THIS LINE AS WELL. .OUTLOOK... TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY MVFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR IN LAKE SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY EAST OF LAKE ERIE. && .MARINE... NO FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE LAKES. WIND WILL INCREASE RATHER GRADUALLY LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AS A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP. EXPECT STRONG SMALL CRAFT...TO MARGINAL GALES ON LAKE ONTARIO LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THOUGH A DECENT FLOW IS LIKELY TO REMAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && SYNOPSIS...APFFEL NEAR TERM...APFFEL/ZAFF SHORT TERM...JJR/TJP LONG TERM...JJR AVIATION...APFFEL/ZAFF MARINE...APFFEL/TJP
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 7, 5:14 AM EST, 10 hours 13 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 514 AM EST MON FEB 7 2011 NYZ001>003-010>014-019>021-085-081015- NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON- ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE- 514 AM EST MON FEB 7 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. COLDER AIR FOLLOWING A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER MONROE AND WAYNE COUNTIES. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ONGOING LAKE SNOWS COULD BRING ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES TUESDAY TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH WILL CREATE VERY POOR VISIBILITY AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS AT TIMES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF NYZ004>008-081015- WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS- 514 AM EST MON FEB 7 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. COLDER AIR FOLLOWING A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ONGOING LAKE SNOWS COULD BRING ANOTHER 3 TO 5 INCHES TUESDAY TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...ESPECIALLY FROM EASTERN WAYNE TO SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH WILL CREATE VERY POOR VISIBILITY AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THE STEADIER LAKE SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND IMPACT AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-081015- UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG- SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS- 514 AM EST MON FEB 7 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF
The office that day
Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 3:21 PM EST | Small Craft Advisory | BUF | 37 hr |
Nearby
Lake Effect Snow Watches in New York, 2011Every lake effect snow watch in 2011
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.