Alert archive / New York / Lake Effect Snow Warnings in 2011

Lake Effect Snow Warning 1, NWS Buffalo, NY

January 2, 2011Jefferson County, Lewis County, Oswego County, New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this lake effect snow warning at Jan 2, 2011, 3:39 AM EST for Jefferson County, Lewis County, Oswego County, New York. It took effect at Jan 2, 2011, 1:00 PM EST. It was in force for 26 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jan 2, 2011, 3:39 AM EST (08:39 UTC)
In effect from
Jan 2, 2011, 1:00 PM EST
Expired
Jan 3, 2011, 3:09 PM EST
In force
26 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

Counties Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Oswego County, NY

The radar

The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 18 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:43 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 00:00Z, 8.7 hours before the alert went out and 205 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Albany, NY at 00:00Z on 2011-01-02Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Albany, NY at 00:00Z on 2011-01-02The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 205 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1436 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
50 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
205 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
228 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

322 
WWUS41 KBUF 020839
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
339 AM EST SUN JAN 2 2011

NYZ006>008-021645-
/O.UPG.KBUF.LE.A.0001.110102T1800Z-110103T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0001.110102T1800Z-110103T2300Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
339 AM EST SUN JAN 2 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
6 PM EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
6 PM EST MONDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT. 


* LOCATIONS...THE TUG HILL PLATEAU.

* TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 16 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE HALF MILE OR LESS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TO DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS WITH 
  GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SLIPPERY SNOW COVERED ROADS. 

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MODERATE TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE
THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY
VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND
USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT
BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES
AND WATER HEATERS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ012-019-020-085-021645-
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.Y.0001.110102T2100Z-110103T1500Z/
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
339 AM EST SUN JAN 2 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON
TO 10 AM EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
10 AM EST MONDAY. 

* LOCATIONS...THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER

* TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. 

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 7 INCHES. 

* VISIBILITIES ONE HALF MILE OR LESS IN MODERATE SNOW. 

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES
  AND SLIPPERY SNOW COVERED ROADS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$
7 follow-up statements
450 
WWUS41 KBUF 021454
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
954 AM EST SUN JAN 2 2011

NYZ006>008-022300-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0001.110102T1800Z-110103T2300Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
954 AM EST SUN JAN 2 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST MONDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST MONDAY. 

* LOCATIONS...THE TUG HILL PLATEAU.

* TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 16 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE HALF MILE OR LESS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TO DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS WITH 
  GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SLIPPERY SNOW COVERED ROADS. 

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MODERATE TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE
THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY
VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND
USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT
BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES
AND WATER HEATERS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ012-019-020-085-022300-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0001.110102T2100Z-110103T1500Z/
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
954 AM EST SUN JAN 2 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST MONDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST MONDAY. 

* LOCATIONS...HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

* TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 7 INCHES.

* VISIBILITIES ONE HALF MILE OR LESS IN MODERATE SNOW.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WITH REDUCED 
  VISIBILITIES AND SLIPPERY SNOW COVERED ROADS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$
514 
WWUS41 KBUF 022013
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
313 PM EST SUN JAN 2 2011

NYZ006>008-030415-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110103T2300Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
313 PM EST SUN JAN 2 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
MONDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
MONDAY. 

* LOCATIONS...THE TUG HILL PLATEAU.

* TIMING...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 16 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE HALF MILE OR LESS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TO DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS WITH 
  GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SLIPPERY SNOW COVERED ROADS. 

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MODERATE TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE
THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY
VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND
USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT
BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES
AND WATER HEATERS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ012-019-020-085-030415-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0001.110102T2100Z-110103T1500Z/
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
313 PM EST SUN JAN 2 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
MONDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
MONDAY. 

* LOCATIONS...HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

* TIMING...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 7 INCHES.

* VISIBILITIES ONE HALF MILE OR LESS IN MODERATE SNOW.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WITH REDUCED 
  VISIBILITIES AND SLIPPERY SNOW COVERED ROADS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

SFM
258 
WWUS41 KBUF 022159 CCA
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
458 PM EST SUN JAN 2 2011

NYZ006>008-030615-
/O.COR.KBUF.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110103T2300Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
458 PM EST SUN JAN 2 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
MONDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
MONDAY. 

* LOCATIONS...THE TUG HILL PLATEAU.

* TIMING...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 16 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE HALF MILE OR LESS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TO DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS WITH GREATLY
  REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SLIPPERY SNOW COVERED ROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE
THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY
VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND
USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT
BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES
AND WATER HEATERS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ012-019-020-085-030615-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-110103T1500Z/
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
458 PM EST SUN JAN 2 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
MONDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
MONDAY. 

* LOCATIONS...HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

* TIMING...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 7 INCHES.

* VISIBILITIES ONE HALF MILE OR LESS IN MODERATE SNOW.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WITH REDUCED 
  VISIBILITIES AND SLIPPERY SNOW COVERED ROADS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

SFM
942 
WWUS41 KBUF 030223
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
923 PM EST SUN JAN 2 2011

NYZ006>008-031030-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110103T2300Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
923 PM EST SUN JAN 2 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
MONDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
MONDAY. 

* LOCATIONS...THE TUG HILL PLATEAU.

* TIMING...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 16 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE HALF MILE OR LESS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TO DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS WITH 
  GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SLIPPERY SNOW COVERED ROADS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE
THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY
VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND
USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT
BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES
AND WATER HEATERS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ012-019-020-085-031030-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-110103T1500Z/
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
923 PM EST SUN JAN 2 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
MONDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
MONDAY. 

* LOCATIONS...HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

* TIMING...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 7 INCHES.

* VISIBILITIES ONE HALF MILE OR LESS IN MODERATE SNOW.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WITH REDUCED 
  VISIBILITIES AND SLIPPERY SNOW COVERED ROADS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$
241 
WWUS41 KBUF 030836
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
336 AM EST MON JAN 3 2011

NYZ006>008-031645-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110103T2300Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
336 AM EST MON JAN 3 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

* LOCATIONS...THE TUG HILL PLATEAU.

* TIMING...CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY. 

* ACCUMULATIONS...ANOTHER 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. 

* VISIBILITIES...ONE HALF MILE OR LESS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TO DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS WITH GREATLY
  REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SNOW COVERED ROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE
THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY
VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND
USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT
BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES
AND WATER HEATERS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ012-019-020-085-031500-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-110103T1500Z/
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
336 AM EST MON JAN 3 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
THIS MORNING...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
THIS MORNING. 

* LOCATIONS...HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

* TIMING...THROUGH THIS MORNING. 

* ACCUMULATIONS...ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. 

* VISIBILITIES ONE HALF MILE OR LESS IN MODERATE SNOW.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WITH REDUCED 
  VISIBILITIES AND SLIPPERY SNOW COVERED ROADS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

TJP
486 
WWUS41 KBUF 031454
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
954 AM EST MON JAN 3 2011

NYZ007-008-031600-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110103T2300Z/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
954 AM EST MON JAN 3 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WARNING. 

THE LAKE SNOWS HAVE REMAINED SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THEY
WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR.

$$

NYZ012-019-020-085-031600-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-110103T1500Z/
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
954 AM EST MON JAN 3 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. 

LAKE SNOWS HAVE WEAKENED AND WILL LIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. NO
APPRECIABLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

$$

NYZ006-032300-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110103T2300Z/
OSWEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OSWEGO
954 AM EST MON JAN 3 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

* LOCATIONS...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY.

* TIMING...CONTINUES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ANOTHER 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE HALF MILE OR LESS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TO DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS WITH 
  GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE
THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY
VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND
USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT
BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES
AND WATER HEATERS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

SFM
038 
WWUS41 KBUF 032009
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
309 PM EST MON JAN 3 2011

NYZ006-032115-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110103T2300Z/
OSWEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OSWEGO
309 PM EST MON JAN 3 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WARNING. 

THE LAKE SNOW BAND HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED AS IT CONTINUES TO
LIFT NORTH. ONLY ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES WILL FALL THROUGH EARLY
EVENING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTY.

$$

SFM

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this lake effect snow warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this lake effect snow warning went out at Jan 2, 3:23 AM EST, 16 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 2, 3:23 AM EST, 16 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
323 AM EST SUN JAN 2 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD WESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL
GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT EAST OF THE LAKES THIS AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY. SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH A FEW BOUTS OF NUISANCE SNOWS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE. RAIN AND/OR
SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE THAT IS ADVANCING ACROSS LAKE ERIE. EXPECT
THESE SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE MID LEVEL
IMPULSE LIFTS NORTH INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING.

AS THE SYNOPTIC SCALE INFLUENCES WIND DOWN...THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO
THE MESOSCALE WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EXPECTED TO IMPACT PARTS OF THE
CWA LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT.

UPSTREAM RADARS AND THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGE SHOW LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BANDS BEGINNING TO SET UP OVER THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ERIE.
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS LINE UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXTEND NORTHEAST UP THE LONG AXIS OF LAKE ERIE
THIS MORNING AND IMPACT THE BUFFALO METRO AREA. AS THE STEERING WINDS
VEERS MORE TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THE LAKE SNOWS SHOULD SHIFT INTO THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS
AND NORTHERN CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES. THE NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS FOR KBUF SHOW RELATIVELY LOW LAKE EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AND
MARGINAL CAPES THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS TO REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA.

TONIGHT...AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS AND THE DEPTH OF THE MOIST LAYER
INCREASES...THE LAKE SNOWS OFF LAKE ERIE WILL BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED AND MAINLY IMPACT THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCLUDING SOUTHERN
ERIE AND WYOMING COUNTIES. DUE TO THE MORE FAVORABLE LAKE INDUCED
STABILITY PARAMETERS AND THE INCREASING DEPTH OF THE FAVORABLE
DENDRITIC ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH AREA...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR OUR FOUR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL SET UP EAST OF THE LAKE
LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS TODAY...BEFORE THE
LAKE SNOWS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE ADDED LIFT FROM THE WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LEAD
TO HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS. THEREFORE...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH THAT
WAS IN EFFECT FOR OUR THREE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES WILL BE
WILL BE UPGRADED TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY WILL START OFF WITH A LAKE EFFECT SNOWS IN PROGRESS...WITH A
WSW FLOW ON LAKE ERIE AND MORE W FLOW ON LAKE ONTARIO. KEY FEATURE
APPEARS TO BE HIGH PRESSURE NEAR KENTUCKY...WHICH WILL MAKE ITS WAY
EAST THROUGH THE DAY. AS IT DOES SO...SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
SW...HOWEVER WINDS ALOFT WILL LARGELY REMAIN WESTERLY DURING THE DAY
AT LEAST. THE RESULT WILL BE SHEAR...WHICH WILL LIKELY END OR
GREATLY DIMINISH ONGOING LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY. OFF LAKE ERIE...THIS
SHOULD HAPPEN DURING THE MORNING...WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE
NAM/GFS/RGEM POINTING TO A LATE AFTERNOON TIMING ON LAKE ONTARIO.

BEFORE THIS HAPPENS...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FAIRLY
ORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. HERE...THERE WILL
BE AMPLE INSTABILITY OF AROUND 300 J/KG...DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
GOOD SNOW GROWTH...AND UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT ON THE EASTERN SLOPE OF
THE TUG HILL. WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY ALOFT...WHICH MAY HINDER
DEVELOPMENT A BIT...BUT IN ALL FEEL A BAND PRODUCING 1 TO 3 INCHES
AN HOUR WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO UNTIL THE REAL
SHEAR COMES LATE AFTERNOON. THUS CONTINUE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. MORE MARGINAL
CONDITIONS OFF LAKE ERIE AT THE ONSET...WITH LESS INSTABILITY...AND A
MODEST FETCH IN THE WSW FLOW. AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE
SW...EXPECT REMNANT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD
BUFFALO/BATAVIA MID-DAY...WITH GENERALLY A LIGHT SNOWFALL (IF ANY)
EXPECTED.

BETWEEN THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS...EXPECT PERIODS OF SUNSHINE...WITH
FAIRLY DRY AIR AND SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING IN...LAKE MOISTURE WILL
BE COMPULSORY FOR CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
COOL SIDE FOLLOWING OUR BRIEF WARM UP...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 20S.

WITH LITTLE BREAK...OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT...AS A
CLIPPER LOW DIVES FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.
SURFACE WINDS TRENT TO THE SW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
FIND NAM QPF DUBIOUS...WITH ITS FORECAST LIKELY OVERDONE IN BUFFALO
AND OFF LAKE ERIE IN GENERAL. 00Z NAM RUN LINES UP SW WINDS FROM
SURFACE TO 850MB OFF LAKE ERIE...AND BASED ON THIS DEVELOPS A
SIGNIFICANT QPF FIELD DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY (850 MB TEMPS ONLY
-10C). HOWEVER...GFS WIND FIELDS DO NOT SHOW WINDS AS WELL LINED
UP...SO THEIR LACK OF QPF IS NOT JUST A GRID SCALE ISSUE. IF WINDS
LINE UP AS THE NAM FORECASTS...THERE SHOULD BE SOME LAKE
EFFECT...BUT WITH SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THIS WILL
OCCUR...KNOCK THINGS DOWN TO THE CHANCE POP RANGE AS THIS LOOKS TO
BE MORE OF A YES OR NO FORECAST DEPENDENT ON PINNING DOWN AN IDEAL
WIND FIELD. OTHERWISE...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT OFF LAKE ONTARIO
SHOULD WEAKEN FURTHER AS WINDS CONTINUE TO SHEAR.

TUESDAY IS A BIT OF A DIFFERENT STORY...IN THAT SYNOPTIC LIFT FROM
CLIPPER BECOMES INVOLVED. EUROPEAN/UKMET/GGEM/NAM/GFS ALL SHOW SOME
QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER WITH THE SYSTEM STARTING
DRY...SUSPECT SOME OF THIS DEPENDS ON LAKE MOISTURE...WITH LOWER
RESOLUTION MODELS UNABLE TO BE SPECIFIC WITH QPF LOCATION.  WITH THE
LOW NEARBY...SURFACE WINDS HARD TO PIN DOWN WITH A WIDE SPREAD
BETWEEN NAM/GFS. IN THIS CASE PREFER SREF ENSEMBLE FOR WINDS. USE
THESE TO DIFFERENTIATE BETWEEN LIKELY-CHANCE POPS. IN ALL...DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A MAJOR EVENT...BUT IN SPOTS MAY SEE SOME LIMITED SNOW
ACCUMULATION ON THE ORDER OF A COUPLE INCHES. MOST WILL GET LESS
THAN THAT.

AS THE SYSTEM EXITS EAST TUESDAY NIGHT...850 MB TEMPS WILL COOL
WHICH WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE LAKE. WIND
BEHIND THE SYSTEM APPEARS NOT TOO FAVORABLE...WITH WINDS NOT LIKELY
TO BE TOO WELL ALIGNED. BEST SHOT APPEARS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...WHERE A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT MAY DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL MODESTLY BEHIND THE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA WILL GENERALLY BE ZONAL...FEATURING A SPLIT FLOW
REGIME WITH ONE MAIN UPPER LOW SITUATED OVER EASTERN CANADA...AND A
SECOND AND WEAKER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS TIME PROGRESSES
HOWEVER...THIS IS EXPECTED TO AT LEAST TEMPORARILY EVOLVE INTO A
MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN BY WEEK'S END...AS STRONG HIGH LATITUDE
BLOCKING ONCE AGAIN DRIFTS WESTWARD FROM GREENLAND INTO NORTH
CENTRAL CANADA...AND THE EASTERN CANADIAN UPPER LOW GETS SHUNTED
FURTHER SOUTH INTO NEW YORK STATE AND NEW ENGLAND WHILE BECOMING
MORE AMPLIFIED. FOR OUR REGION...THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
FALLING FROM NEAR NORMAL TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...ALONG WITH INCREASING SNOW/SNOW SHOWER CHANCES.

HERE'S A CLOSER LOOK AT THE FORECAST DETAILS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
A DIMINISHING CHANCE FOR SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH LINGERING LAKE EFFECT CAN/T COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT.

WHILE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FAIRLY GOOD CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
US...DETAILS RELEVANT TO OUR FORECAST BEGIN TO DIVERGE RATHER
QUICKLY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. 00Z GGEM/GFS/EUROPEAN ALL BRING
A SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...AND WILL UP POPS TO HIGH
CHANCE IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE.

AFTER THIS...A DEEP CLOSED 500 MB LOW DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
LAKES REGION...SPAWNING SOME SORT OF COASTAL LOW. THE POSITION AND
STRENGTH OF SURFACE FEATURES ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE AMONG MODELS
CONSULTED...AND HAVE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN ABILITY TO PIN DOWN WIND
DIRECTION. IN SOME CASES THIS WOULD NOT BE TOO MUCH OF A
PROBLEM...HOWEVER AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
LOW...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT LAKE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. PINNING DOWN
IF/WHEN/WHERE LAKE EFFECT WILL DEVELOP DEPENDS ON KNOWING THESE
DETAILS...SO ONLY CHOICE IS TO BROAD BRUSH CHANCE POPS UNTIL THESE
DETAILS ARE BETTER RESOLVED. IN GENERAL...THERE IS AGREEMENT ON
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND AN ABOVE NORMAL CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION (SNOW SHOWERS).

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT IS NOW MOVING AWAY TO OUR EAST.

COLDER AIR DEEPENING IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL
SET UP SOME LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY (IE. LAKE EFFECT) CLOUD COVER
IN THE BUFFALO AREA BY DAYBREAK THOUGH...AND AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM. THIS WILL RESULT
IN MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KBUF FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME OF THE LOWER
LAKE CLOUDS COULD MAKE THEIR WAY AS FAR INLAND AS KROC.

EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...LAKE CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP A FEW HOURS LATER WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR FOR
KART BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IFR CONDITIONS
COULD BRIEFLY BE EXPERIENCED AT KART DURING THE MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...A MORE WESTERLY FLOW WILL DIRECT LAKE INDUCED
CLOUDS AND SNOW ACROSS THE SRN TIER AND ALSO ACROSS THE TUG HILL.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO SET IN TO KBUF AND KART
WHILE KJHW WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF
THE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH LOCAL IFR IN LAKE SNOWS DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES.
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL
MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
EASTERN NEARSHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO. WIND AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES NORTH FROM
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST
NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
LAKES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SATURDAY'S RAINFALL AVERAGED 0.5 INCH IN THE FAR WEST AND 0.2 TO
0.4 INCH ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES WITH SIMILAR
AMOUNTS EXPECTED EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE
MILD TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS (OVER 50!) OF THE PAST 24 HOURS
OR SO RESULTED IN A RAPID MELTDOWN OF EXISTING SNOWPACK WITH
LITTLE OR NONE REMAINING...EVEN OVER AREAS WHICH HAD THE DENSEST
PACK JUST SOUTH OF BUFFALO. ICE IN LOCAL CREEKS ALSO ERODED
RAPIDLY WITH SOME BRIEF JAMS...BUT THE ONLY ONE REMAINING PER
FIELD REPORTS WAS ON CAZENOVIA CREEK IN SOUTH BUFFALO BUT EVEN
THIS WAS RELATIVELY MINOR WITH FREE FLOWING WATER AROUND IT. WILL
MAINTAIN ADVISORY FOR THAT ICE JAM AND FLOOD WATCH FOR A FEW HOURS
MORE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
DECEMBER CLIMATE REPORTS (CLM) WERE ISSUED BEFORE NOON. IT WAS
COLDEST IN TEN YEARS AT BOTH BUF AND ROC. WARMEST TEMPS WERE EARLY ON
1ST AND LATE ON 31ST...BOTH IN 50S. OTHERWISE COLD CLOUDY AND
SNOWY...BUT BULK OF SNOW FELL IN EARLY MONTH LAKE EFFECTS...VERY
LITTLE THE LAST TWO WEEKS. 2010 WAS A BENIGN YEAR OVERALL...10 OF 12
MONTHS WARMER THAN NORMAL. SEE CLM'S FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM
     EST MONDAY FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR LOZ042-
         043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ044-045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TJP
NEAR TERM...TJP
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...APFFEL/TJP
HYDROLOGY...SFM
CLIMATE...SFM
Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 2, 12:15 AM EST, 3 hours 24 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1215 AM EST SUN JAN 2 2011

NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085-030515-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
SOUTHERN ERIE-
1215 AM EST SUN JAN 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-030515-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
1215 AM EST SUN JAN 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ006>008-030515-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
1215 AM EST SUN JAN 2 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 2, 3:39 AM ESTLake Effect Snow AdvisoryBUFCattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Wyoming30 hr

Nearby

Lake Effect Snow Warnings in New York, 2011Every lake effect snow warning in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.