Lake Effect Snow Advisory 12, NWS Buffalo, NY

445 
WWUS41 KBUF 100204
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
904 PM EST WED FEB 9 2011

NYZ006>008-101015-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0007.000000T0000Z-110210T2300Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
904 PM EST WED FEB 9 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
THURSDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
THURSDAY. 

* LOCATIONS...JEFFERSON...LEWIS...AND OSWEGO COUNTIES...WITH THE 
  GREATEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND PORTIONS OF 
  OSWEGO COUNTY. 

* TIMING...THROUGH THURSDAY. A BAND OVER SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY
  THIS EVENING WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE TUG HILL INTO OSWEGO
  COUNTY OVERNIGHT...THEN LIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS THE TUG HILL ON THURSDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOWFALL RATES OF 3 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE
  HEAVIEST BANDS. STORM TOTALS OF ONE TO TWO FEET IN THE MOST
  PERSISTENT SNOWS.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH PRODUCING
  BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

* VISIBILITIES...NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...EXTREMELY DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITH 
  SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY...INCLUDING INTERSTATE 
  81 FROM WATERTOWN TO CENTRAL SQUARE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE
THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY
VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND
USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT
BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES
AND WATER HEATERS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ005-101015-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0012.110210T0600Z-110210T1600Z/
NORTHERN CAYUGA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...FAIR HAVEN
904 PM EST WED FEB 9 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM
EST THURSDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM
EST THURSDAY. 

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTY...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF 
  ROUTE 104. 

* TIMING...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES IN PERSISTENT BANDS...GREATEST 
  CLOSE TO LAKE ONTARIO. 

* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH NEAR LAKE 
  ONTARIO PRODUCING SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. 

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES IN BANDS.

* IMPACTS...VERY DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH POOR 
  VISIBILITY AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

APFFEL

547 
WWUS41 KBUF 100803
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
303 AM EST THU FEB 10 2011

NYZ006>008-101615-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0007.000000T0000Z-110210T2300Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
303 AM EST THU FEB 10 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

* LOCATIONS...JEFFERSON...LEWIS...AND OSWEGO COUNTIES...WITH THE 
  GREATEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND PORTIONS OF 
  OSWEGO COUNTY. 

* TIMING...THROUGH THURSDAY. A BAND OVER OSWEGO COUNTY AND THE
  SOUTHERN TUG HILL OF LEWIS COUNTY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY LIFT
  NORTH INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LEWIS AND SOUTHERN JEFFERSON
  COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. 

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOWFALL RATES OF 3 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE 
  HEAVIEST BANDS. STORM TOTALS OF ONE TO TWO FEET IN THE MOST 
  PERSISTENT SNOWS. 

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH PRODUCING 
  BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. 

* VISIBILITIES...NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...EXTREMELY DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITH
  SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY...INCLUDING INTERSTATE 81
  FROM ADAMS TO CENTRAL SQUARE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE
THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY
VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND
USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT
BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES
AND WATER HEATERS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ005-101600-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-110210T1600Z/
NORTHERN CAYUGA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...FAIR HAVEN
303 AM EST THU FEB 10 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST
THIS MORNING...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST
THIS MORNING. 

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTY...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF 
  ROUTE 104. 

* TIMING...SNOWBANDS SETTLING SOUTH INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS
  MORNING AND LIFTING NORTH AGAIN BY MIDDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES IN PERSISTENT BANDS...GREATEST 
  CLOSE TO LAKE ONTARIO. 

* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH NEAR LAKE 
  ONTARIO PRODUCING SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. 

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES IN BANDS.

* IMPACTS...VERY DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH POOR 
  VISIBILITY AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

SFM

300 
WWUS41 KBUF 101456
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
956 AM EST THU FEB 10 2011

NYZ005-101600-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-110210T1600Z/
NORTHERN CAYUGA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...FAIR HAVEN
956 AM EST THU FEB 10 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. 

THE BAND OF LAKE SNOW HAS LIFTED TO THE NORTH OVER THE LAKE.

$$

NYZ006>008-102300-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0007.000000T0000Z-110210T2300Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
956 AM EST THU FEB 10 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

* LOCATIONS...JEFFERSON...LEWIS...AND OSWEGO COUNTIES...WITH THE 
  GREATEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND PORTIONS OF 
  OSWEGO COUNTY. 

* TIMING...THROUGH THURSDAY. A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE SNOW
  TARGETING OSWEGO AT MID MORNING WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE TUG
  HILL DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE BAND WILL THEN LIFT NORTH OF THE
  TUG HILL TONIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE FOUND WITHIN ABOUT
  25 MILES OF THE LAKE.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOWFALL RATES OF 3 INCHES PER HOUR NEAR THE
  LAKE. STORM TOTALS OF ONE TO TWO FEET WILL BE FOUND IN THE MOST
  PERSISTENT SNOWS.

* WINDS...WEST INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH PRODUCING SOME BLOWING
  AND DRIFTING SNOW.

* VISIBILITIES...NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...EXTREMELY DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITH
  SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY...INCLUDING INTERSTATE 81
  TONIGHT FROM SANDY CREEK TO ADAMS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE
THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY
VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND
USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT
BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES
AND WATER HEATERS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

RSH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1231 PM EST WED FEB 9 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. ANY SNOW WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN
NATURE...EXCEPT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A MODERATING TREND WILL THEN
BEGIN THIS WEEKEND AS COLDER AIR RETREATS AND IS REPLACED BY
MILDER PACIFIC AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...OUR REGION WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN A WEST TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR RIGHT THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD. AFTER SOME VERY SHORT-LIVED MODERATION IN TEMPS ALOFT THIS
MORNING...A SECONDARY TROUGH/ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING A
GENERAL CHANCE OF SNOW SNOW SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC
AIR.

A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IS FOUND ACROSS WESTERN NY THIS MORNING.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY...BUT THERE
SHOULD STILL BE AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE FILTERING THROUGH THE
RELATIVELY THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH
TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS IN WESTERN NY AND THE LOWER 20S
IN CENTRAL NY. THE GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS
DOWN IN THE ZERO TO -5F RANGE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE BIG EXCEPTION TO ALL OF THIS WILL BE FOUND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...WHERE THE FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARMER
WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY FROM LATE TODAY ON THROUGH TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOW HAS SHIFTED NORTH TO NORTHERN
JEFFERSON COUNTY. INSTABILITY IS VERY MARGINAL WITH LAKE INDUCED
CAPES ONLY AROUND 4K FEET OR SO. DESPITE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...
A DECENT BAND REMAINS FROM JUST NORTH OF WATERTOWN EASTWARD ALONG
THE ROUTE 3 CORRIDOR AT 15Z. THIS BAND MAY DROP 3-4 INCHES TODAY
WHERE IT PERSISTS THE LONGEST. THE MORE INTENSE SNOWS WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT HOWEVER.

BY MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH...ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING MOISTURE...COLDER
AIR...DECREASING SHEAR...AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE LAKE SNOWS TO REORGANIZE AND INTENSIFY ON A WSW
FLOW BY LATE IN THE DAY. THEN AS THE TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA
TONIGHT...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WELL-ALIGNED OUT OF THE
WEST AS THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...SENDING INCREASINGLY
ORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS BACK SOUTHWARD TO THE TUG HILL
REGION...WHERE THEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE
NIGHT.

GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL BE IN PLACE
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE INCREASINGLY LONGER FETCH ACROSS THE LAKE
THAT IS EXPECTED DURING THIS SAME TIME FRAME...AND EXPECTED TERRAIN
ENHANCEMENT FROM THE TUG HILL...WE HAVE ELECTED TO UPGRADE THE
EXISTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY TO A
WARNING...WITH AS MUCH AS A FOOT OF NEW SNOW EXPECTED IN THE MOST
PERSISTENT SNOWS TONIGHT. THE WARNING WILL BEGIN AT 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WHEN
ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...SEE THE SHORT
TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON THAT.

OTHERWISE...JUST SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A GENERAL CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WORK THROUGH THE
AREA...WHEN A DUSTING TO A HALF INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE SNOWS WILL BE GOING IN EARNEST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS WE START
THE PERIOD. NO SHORTAGE OF ARCTIC AIR WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DOWN
TO -22C. GREAT OVER-WATER INSTABILITY WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPES
EXCEEDING 500 J/KG. DEEP LAYERED WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
FOCUS THE HEAVIEST SNOWS ACROSS THE TUG HILL THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ONE LIMITING FACTOR IS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE GETTING A TOUCH TOO COLD FOR IDEAL DENDRITIC
GROWTH...PERHAPS CUTTING DOWN ON SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS. WE STILL
THINK RATIOS WILL BE IN THE 20:1/25:1 RANGE. USING THIS AND A
SIMPLE PERSISTENCE OF THE EXPECTED LAKE BANDS COULD SEE TOTALS ON
THE TUG HILL NEARING 3 FEET.

MESOSCALE MODELS HINTING THAT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY BACK SLIGHTLY
AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS COULD LIFT
THE MAIN LAKE BAND INTO THE WATERTOWN AREA FOR A TIME GIVING
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS THERE AS WELL.

WE SHOULD SEE THE LAKE ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
AS THE COLDEST AIR BEGINS TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE
SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

EXCEPT VERY COLD CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE TEENS WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS FOR MORE WIND CHILL
HEADLINES. SOME REBOUND ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE IS ON THE HORIZON. THE ASIAN PACIFIC HORIZON
TO BE EXACT...FOR THIS LONG RANGE PERIOD. HOW MAJOR? WELL...TEMPS
FOR DECEMBER...JANUARY AND THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF FEBRUARY HAVE ALL
AVERAGED MORE THAN 3 DEGREES F BELOW NORMAL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK. DURING THAT NEARLY 10 WEEK STRETCH...THE LONGEST
STRETCH OF DAYS WHEN TEMPS CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING WAS JUST 4. THAT
INCLUDED THE LAST TWO DAYS OF DEC AND THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF JAN. WE
MAY NOW HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO EXCEED THAT NUMBER LATER THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

A HEMISPHERIC VIEW OF THE WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA WHILE A SECOND...MORE
TIGHTLY WOUND STORM IS MAKING ITS WAY OFF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA.
BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL HELP TO BREAK DOWN THE PERSISTENT WEST
COAST RIDGE (+PNA) HEADING INTO THIS PERIOD...WITH THE GULF OF
ALASKA BECOMING QUITE ACTIVE. THIS AREA HAS BEEN UNUSUALLY QUIET IN
TERMS OF INTENSE STORMS SO FAR THIS SEASON AS A STRONG WEST COAST
RIDGE HAS DIRECTED DISTURBANCES FURTHER NORTH...BUT THIS PATTERN IS
NOW BREAKING DOWN.

THE FIRST GULF OF ALASKA SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS BRITISH
COLUMBIA IN THE COMING 36 HOURS WHILE THE INTENSE STORM SYSTEM
EXITING EASTERN ASIA WILL CROSS THE PACIFIC AND RE-INTENSIFY THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA. ENERGY EJECTING FROM THIS LONG
WAVE TROUGH FRIDAY INTO THE COMING WEEKEND WILL BEAT DOWN THE WEST
COAST RIDGE AND A STRONG PACIFIC BASED ZONAL FLOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED. THINK OF THESE SHORTWAVES AS DAMN BUSTERS. EACH ONE
HAMMERING AWAY AT THE DAMN UNTIL IT BREAKS TO ALLOW FOR PACIFIC AIR
TO FLOOD ACROSS THE CONTINENT.

IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT A STRONG BLOCK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
SOME 500-1000 MILES EAST OF GREENLAND (THUS KEEPING A -NAO INDICE
VALUE IN PLACE)...BUT THE HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW THAT TYPICALLY
DEVELOPS FROM THIS WILL NOT BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE
PACIFIC ENERGY BASHING THE WEST COAST RIDGE.

AS A RESULT OF A NEWLY ESTABLISHED ZONAL FLOW...THE TRULY COLD
CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR WILL BECOME BOTTLED UP WELL TO OUR NORTH WITH
H85 TEMPS OVER OUR REGION MODIFYING TO BETWEEN -8C AND ZERO
C...RATHER THAN THE DOUBLE DIGIT COLD AIR FROM RECENT WEEKS.
SPEAKING OF WHICH...THE COLDEST AIR IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE HAS
BEEN FAIRLY EVENLY SPLIT BETWEEN THE 'EASTERN AND WESTERN'
HEMISPHERES SINCE MID DECEMBER BUT DURING THE COURSE OF THE COMING
10 DAYS...THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER ASIA.

WHAT WILL THIS ALL MEAN FOR OUR REGION? IT MEANS THAT MILDER AIR
WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A NOTICEABLE WARM
UP ANTICIPATED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTERS 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY TEMP OUTLOOKS SUPPORT THIS OFFICES LINE OF
THINKING FOR THIS FORECAST...WHICH IS BASED ON A 75/25 SPLIT BETWEEN
THE ECMWF AND GEFS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SCT-BKN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS. THE ONE NOTABLE
EXCEPTION WILL BE NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE A PLUME OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL PRODUCE A SWATH OF IFR AND LOWER VSBY IN THE KART
VCNTY. THIS BAND SHOULD INTENSIFY AND SHIFT SOUTH DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A FEW HOURS OF VSBY BELOW AIRFIELD
MINIMUMS POSSIBLE AT KART. THE BAND WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY SOUTH BY MID
EVENING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. THE LAKE SNOW WILL THEN
REMAIN SOUTH OF KART THROUGH 18Z THURS.

ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE MOST PART. SOME LAKE
INSTABILITY MAY PRODUCE A PLUME OF MVFR CIGS OFF LAKE ERIE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT KBUF-KIAG WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE AS
WELL...BUT WITH THE LAKE 95 PERCENT FROZEN IT WILL NOT AMOUNT TO
MUCH. THE LAKE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES WILL SINK SOUTH TO THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR AFTER ABOUT 06Z.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME LINGERING IFR IN LAKE SNOW EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A FEW PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
PER COORDINATION WITH WFO CLE AND ENVIRONMENT CANADA TORONTO
OFFICE...WE HAVE DROPPED THE GALE WARNING FOR LAKE ERIE AND WESTERN
LAKE ONTARIO. LAKE ERIE WINDS ARE NOT EVEN CLOSE TO GALE FORCE...NOR
WILL THEY BE TODAY WITH THE ICE COVERED LAKE PREVENTING AN UNSTABLE
MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER. WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO WINDS WILL ALSO STAY AT
30 KNOTS OR LESS.

GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
REGION TODAY. THE VERY COLD AIRMASS FLOWING OVER THE RELATIVELY
WARMER LAKE WATERS WILL RESULT IN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
RATHER EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE LAKE SURFACE...RESULTING
IN FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ON THE EASTERN HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FOR THIS REASON...A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST HALF
OF LAKE ONTARIO.

IN ADDITION...THE GUSTY WINDS AND WAVE ACTION COMBINED WITH THE VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FREEZING
SPRAY ON THE EAST HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO. FOR THIS REASON...THE HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WILL ALSO CONTINUE FOR EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
RIGHT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

DURING THE COURSE OF THIS EVENING...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX
SLIGHTLY...ALLOWING THE WINDS TO DROP BELOW GALE FORCE. THIS
SAID...A RATHER BRISK WESTERLY FLOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AND WILL REQUIRE ADDITIONAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ONCE WINDS FALL BELOW GALE FORCE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ006>008.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
         LOZ043>045-063>065.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LOZ043>045-
         063>065.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/JJR
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/JJR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1010 AM EST WED FEB 9 2011

NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085-101515-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
1010 AM EST WED FEB 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

BITTER WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS COLD AS 10 BELOW.
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

BITTER WIND CHILLS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AS COLD
AS 10 BELOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ006>008-101515-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
1010 AM EST WED FEB 9 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
6 PM EST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

BITTER WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS COLD AS 10 BELOW.
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

BITTER WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS COLD AS 10 BELOW.
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TODAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ003>005-013-014-101515-
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
1010 AM EST WED FEB 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

BITTER WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS COLD AS 10 BELOW.
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

BITTER WIND CHILL EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AS COLD
AS 10 BELOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LOZ042>045-062>065-101515-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
1010 AM EST WED FEB 9 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING.
   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-101515-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
1010 AM EST WED FEB 9 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

SLZ022-024-101515-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
1010 AM EST WED FEB 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF THE
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

HITCHCOCK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1010 AM EST WED FEB 9 2011

NYZ006>008-091815-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
1010 AM EST WED FEB 9 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...

BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...MODERATE AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE LAKE SNOW WILL FOCUS ON AN
AREA FROM ADAMS TO WATERTOWN AND FORT DRUM IN JEFFERSON
COUNTY...AND FROM COPENHAGEN TO NATURAL BRIDGE IN LEWIS COUNTY.
SNOW WILL FALL AT RATES OF UP TO A HALF INCH PER HOUR. TRAVEL WILL
BE HAZARDOUS IN THE HEAVIER LAKE SNOWS...INCLUDING INTERSTATE 81
BETWEEN ADAMS AND WATERTOWN.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WILL ALSO CREATING BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW...GREATLY REDUCING VISIBILITY. WIND CHILLS WILL
BE ZERO TO 10 BELOW.

MANY ROADS WILL BE SNOW COVERED...VERY SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. IF
YOU WILL BE DRIVING...BE ALERT FOR SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN THE HEAVIER SNOWS...ALONG WITH BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING ROAD CONDITIONS.

PUKAJLO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1242 PM EST WED FEB 9 2011

NYZ006>008-092100-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
1242 PM EST WED FEB 9 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...

BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY AREA OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH 2 PM WILL
BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM ADAMS...TO WATERTOWN...TO
PHILADELPHIA. AFTER 2 PM...THIS AREA WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DRIFT
SOUTH. SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO A HALF INCH PER HOUR CAN BE
EXPECTED. TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS IN THE HEAVIER SNOW
BANDS...INCLUDING INTERSTATE 81 FROM ADAMS TO WATERTOWN.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW...REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO A QUARTER OF A MILE AT TIMES.

MANY ROADS WILL BE SNOW COVERED...VERY SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. IF
YOU WILL BE DRIVING...BE ALERT FOR SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN THE HEAVIER SNOWS...ALONG WITH BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING ROAD CONDITIONS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
237 PM EST WED FEB 9 2011

NYZ006>008-092300-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
237 PM EST WED FEB 9 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...

BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW IS ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM WATERTOWN TO NATURAL BRIDGE. THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOWFALL
RATES OF UP TO AN INCH AN HOUR IN THE HEAVIER BAND. TRAVEL WILL BE
HAZARDOUS...WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH...WILL RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...WHICH
WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO A QUARTER OF A MILE AT TIMES.

MANY ROADS WILL BE SNOW COVERED...VERY SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. IF
YOU WILL BE DRIVING...BE ALERT FOR SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN THE HEAVIER SNOWS...ALONG WITH BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING ROAD CONDITIONS.