Alert archive / New York / Lake Effect Snow Advisories in 2011

Lake Effect Snow Advisory 10, NWS Buffalo, NY

January 22, 20114 counties in New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this lake effect snow advisory at Jan 22, 2011, 8:13 PM EST for 4 counties in New York. It was in force for 16 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jan 22, 2011, 8:13 PM EST (01:13 UTC)
Expired
Jan 23, 2011, 12:00 PM EST
In force
16 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

Counties Erie County, NY, Monroe County, NY, Niagara County, NY, Orleans County, NY

The radar

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 37 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 00:00Z, 1.2 hours before the alert went out and 35 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 00:00Z on 2011-01-23Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 00:00Z on 2011-01-23The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 187 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
764 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
55 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
187 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
246 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

263 
WWUS41 KBUF 230113
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
813 PM EST SAT JAN 22 2011

NYZ001-010-230900-
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.Y.0010.110123T0113Z-110123T0900Z/
NIAGARA-NORTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...BUFFALO
813 PM EST SAT JAN 22 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY. 

* LOCATIONS...NIAGARA AND NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY. A BAND OF LAKE
  EFFECT SNOW WILL INTENSIFY OVER SOUTHERN NIAGARA COUNTY AND
  GRAND ISLAND THIS EVENING THEN SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE BUFFALO
  METRO AREA.

* TIMING...THIS EVENING THROUGH THE WEE HOURS OF SUNDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES IN PERSISTENT BANDS.

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...RAPIDLY DETERIORATING TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
  BUFFALO METRO AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING WITH POOR
  VISIBILITY AND SNOW COVERED ROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-230915-
/O.CON.KBUF.WC.Y.0001.110123T0600Z-110123T1500Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WC.A.0001.110123T2300Z-110124T1500Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
813 PM EST SAT JAN 22 2011

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY...
...WIND CHILL WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY. A WIND CHILL WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. 

* LOCATIONS...EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.

* TIMING...LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE 
  ADVISORY. EVEN COLDER WIND CHILLS POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING 
  THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE WATCH. 

* WIND CHILL VALUES...20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO LATER TONIGHT THROUGH 
  SUNDAY MORNING. 30 TO 40 BELOW POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 
  EARLY MONDAY MORNING. 

* IMPACTS...FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL MAKE 
  PROLONGED EXPOSURE DANGEROUS WITHOUT PROPER PRECAUTIONS. 

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND WATCHES ARE ISSUED WHEN WINDS WILL
COMBINE WITH COLD TEMPERATURES TO CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD
CONDITIONS FOR EXPOSED SKIN. IF YOU WILL BE OUTDOORS USE COMMON
SENSE AND DRESS WARMLY IN LAYERS...MAKING SURE THAT ALL EXPOSED
SKIN IS COVERED. IF POSSIBLE...AVOID PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO THE
COLD TO PREVENT FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK
4 follow-up statements
290 
WWUS41 KBUF 230504
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1204 AM EST SUN JAN 23 2011

NYZ010-230615-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-110123T0900Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...BUFFALO
1204 AM EST SUN JAN 23 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS MOVED INLAND AND WEAKENED...THEREFORE THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

NYZ002-003-231315-
/O.EXB.KBUF.LE.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-110123T1700Z/
ORLEANS-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MEDINA...ROCHESTER
1204 AM EST SUN JAN 23 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY. 

* LOCATIONS...ORLEANS AND MONROE COUNTIES.

* TIMING...THROUGH NOON SUNDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES IN PERSISTENT BANDS.

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS
  AND POOR VISIBILITY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ001-231315-
/O.EXT.KBUF.LE.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-110123T1700Z/
NIAGARA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...NIAGARA FALLS
1204 AM EST SUN JAN 23 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
SUNDAY...

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
SUNDAY. 

* LOCATIONS...NIAGARA COUNTY. 

* TIMING...THROUGH NOON SUNDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES IN PERSISTENT BANDS.

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS
  AND POOR VISIBILITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-231315-
/O.CON.KBUF.WC.Y.0001.110123T0600Z-110123T1500Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WC.A.0001.110123T2300Z-110124T1500Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
1204 AM EST SUN JAN 23 2011

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY...
...WIND CHILL WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY. A
WIND CHILL WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. 

* LOCATIONS...EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.

* TIMING...LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE 
  ADVISORY. EVEN COLDER WIND CHILLS POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING 
  THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE WATCH. 

* WIND CHILL VALUES...20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO LATER TONIGHT THROUGH 
  SUNDAY MORNING. 30 TO 40 BELOW POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 
  EARLY MONDAY MORNING. 

* IMPACTS...FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL MAKE 
  PROLONGED EXPOSURE DANGEROUS WITHOUT PROPER PRECAUTIONS. 

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND WATCHES ARE ISSUED WHEN WINDS WILL
COMBINE WITH COLD TEMPERATURES TO CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD
CONDITIONS FOR EXPOSED SKIN. IF YOU WILL BE OUTDOORS USE COMMON
SENSE AND DRESS WARMLY IN LAYERS...MAKING SURE THAT ALL EXPOSED
SKIN IS COVERED. IF POSSIBLE...AVOID PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO THE
COLD TO PREVENT FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK/RSH
263 
WWUS41 KBUF 230854
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
354 AM EST SUN JAN 23 2011

NYZ006>008-231700-
/O.CON.KBUF.WC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-110123T1500Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WC.A.0001.110123T2300Z-110124T1500Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
354 AM EST SUN JAN 23 2011

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...
...WIND CHILL WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING. A WIND CHILL WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. 

* LOCATIONS...EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.

* TIMING...THROUGH THIS MORNING FOR THE ADVISORY. EVEN COLDER WIND
  CHILLS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
  WATCH.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING. 30 TO 40
  BELOW POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL MAKE 
  PROLONGED EXPOSURE DANGEROUS WITHOUT PROPER PRECAUTIONS. 

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND WATCHES ARE ISSUED WHEN WINDS WILL
COMBINE WITH COLD TEMPERATURES TO CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD
CONDITIONS FOR EXPOSED SKIN. IF YOU WILL BE OUTDOORS USE COMMON
SENSE AND DRESS WARMLY IN LAYERS...MAKING SURE THAT ALL EXPOSED
SKIN IS COVERED. IF POSSIBLE...AVOID PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO THE
COLD TO PREVENT FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ001>003-231700-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-110123T1700Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER
354 AM EST SUN JAN 23 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
TODAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
TODAY. 

* LOCATIONS...NIAGARA...ORLEANS AND MONROE COUNTIES.

* TIMING...THROUGH NOON SUNDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES IN PERSISTENT BANDS.

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS 
  AND POOR VISIBILITY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

LEVAN
296 
WWUS41 KBUF 231515
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1015 AM EST SUN JAN 23 2011

NYZ006>008-232315-
/O.EXP.KBUF.WC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-110123T1500Z/
/O.UPG.KBUF.WC.A.0001.110123T2300Z-110124T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WC.W.0001.110123T1515Z-110124T1400Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
1015 AM EST SUN JAN 23 2011

...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY. THE WIND
CHILL ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. THE WIND CHILL WATCH IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATIONS...EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.

* TIMING...THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
  25 TO 40 BELOW TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND BITTER WIND CHILLS WILL MAKE
  PROLONGED EXPOSURE DANGEROUS WITHOUT PROPER PRECAUTIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN A WIND WILL COMBINE WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES TO CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR EXPOSED
SKIN. THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE IT IS 25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
OR COLDER FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THOSE PLANNING TO VENTURE OUTDOORS
SHOULD USE COMMON SENSE AND DRESS WARMLY.

IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE
THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY
VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND
USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT
BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES
AND WATER HEATERS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ001>003-232315-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WC.Y.0002.110123T1515Z-110124T1400Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-110123T1700Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER
1015 AM EST SUN JAN 23 2011

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
TODAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY. A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY. 

* LOCATIONS...NIAGARA...ORLEANS AND MONROE COUNTIES.

* TIMING...THROUGH NOON SUNDAY FOR HEAVY SNOW AND THROUGH MONDAY
  MORNING FOR DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES IN PERSISTENT BANDS.

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
  EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS
  AND POOR VISIBILITY. FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND BITTER WIND CHILLS
  WILL MAKE PROLONGED EXPOSURE DANGEROUS WITHOUT PROPER
  PRECAUTIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN A WIND WILL COMBINE WITH
COLD TEMPERATURES TO CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR
EXPOSED SKIN. THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE IT IS 15 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO OR COLDER FOR A PERIOD OF SEVERAL HOURS. IF YOU WILL BE
OUTDOORS USE COMMON SENSE AND DRESS WARMLY...MAKING SURE THAT ALL
EXPOSED SKIN IS COVERED. IF POSSIBLE...AVOID PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO
THE COLD TO PREVENT FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ004-005-010>014-019>021-085-232315-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WC.Y.0002.110123T1515Z-110124T1400Z/
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-
ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1015 AM EST SUN JAN 23 2011

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY. 

* LOCATIONS...NIAGARA FRONTIER...WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
  LAKES.

* TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
  EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND BITTER WIND CHILLS WILL MAKE
  PROLONGED EXPOSURE DANGEROUS WITHOUT PROPER PRECAUTIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN A WIND WILL COMBINE WITH
COLD TEMPERATURES TO CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR
EXPOSED SKIN. THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE IT IS 15 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO OR COLDER FOR A PERIOD OF SEVERAL HOURS. IF YOU WILL BE
OUTDOORS USE COMMON SENSE AND DRESS WARMLY...MAKING SURE THAT ALL
EXPOSED SKIN IS COVERED. IF POSSIBLE...AVOID PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO
THE COLD TO PREVENT FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

TMA
594 
WWUS41 KBUF 231704
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1204 PM EST SUN JAN 23 2011

NYZ001>003-240115-
/O.EXP.KBUF.LE.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-110123T1700Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-110124T1400Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER
1204 PM EST SUN JAN 23 2011

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY. 

* LOCATIONS...NIAGARA...ORLEANS AND MONROE COUNTIES.

* TIMING...DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 
  EARLY MONDAY MORNING. 

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS 
  AND POOR VISIBILITY. FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND BITTER WIND 
  CHILLS WILL MAKE PROLONGED EXPOSURE DANGEROUS WITHOUT PROPER 
  PRECAUTIONS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN A WIND WILL COMBINE WITH
COLD TEMPERATURES TO CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR
EXPOSED SKIN. THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE IT IS 15 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO OR COLDER FOR A PERIOD OF SEVERAL HOURS. IF YOU WILL BE
OUTDOORS USE COMMON SENSE AND DRESS WARMLY...MAKING SURE THAT ALL
EXPOSED SKIN IS COVERED. IF POSSIBLE...AVOID PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO
THE COLD TO PREVENT FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-240115-
/O.CON.KBUF.WC.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110124T1400Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
1204 PM EST SUN JAN 23 2011

...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY...

A WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY. 

* LOCATIONS...EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.

* TIMING...THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO THROUGH THIS 
  AFTERNOON. 25 TO 40 BELOW TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY 
  MORNING. 

* IMPACTS...FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND BITTER WIND CHILLS WILL MAKE 
  PROLONGED EXPOSURE DANGEROUS WITHOUT PROPER PRECAUTIONS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN A WIND WILL COMBINE WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES TO CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR EXPOSED
SKIN. THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE IT IS 25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
OR COLDER FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THOSE PLANNING TO VENTURE OUTDOORS
SHOULD USE COMMON SENSE AND DRESS WARMLY.

IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE
THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY
VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND
USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT
BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES
AND WATER HEATERS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ004-005-010>014-019>021-085-240115-
/O.CON.KBUF.WC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-110124T1400Z/
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-
ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1204 PM EST SUN JAN 23 2011

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY. 

* LOCATIONS...NIAGARA FRONTIER...WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND 
  FINGER LAKES. 

* TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 
  EARLY MONDAY MORNING. 

* IMPACTS...FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND BITTER WIND CHILLS WILL MAKE 
  PROLONGED EXPOSURE DANGEROUS WITHOUT PROPER PRECAUTIONS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN A WIND WILL COMBINE WITH
COLD TEMPERATURES TO CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR
EXPOSED SKIN. THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE IT IS 15 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO OR COLDER FOR A PERIOD OF SEVERAL HOURS. IF YOU WILL
BE OUTDOORS USE COMMON SENSE AND DRESS WARMLY...MAKING SURE THAT
ALL EXPOSED SKIN IS COVERED. IF POSSIBLE...AVOID PROLONGED
EXPOSURE TO THE COLD TO PREVENT FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

TMA

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this lake effect snow advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this lake effect snow advisory went out at Jan 22, 8:13 PM EST, 0 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 22, 8:13 PM EST, 0 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
813 PM EST SAT JAN 22 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING
A GENERAL ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR SO
FAR THIS WINTER SEASON. BITTER TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL
EXIST BOTH DAYS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLIPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY WORKING ACROSS SOUTHERN-MOST ONTARIO (NR
YXU/YKF) WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. MODEST
FORCING TIED TO THIS WAVE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
LIKELY BECOME ENHANCED BY CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...IN
FACT SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES BARELY REACH 1 G/KG. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE VERY COLD THERMAL PROFILE AND NEARLY ALL THE OMEGA RESIDES
WITHIN THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH REGION FEEL WE WILL BE
LOOKING AT A HIGH PROBABILITY LOW QPF EVENT. SNOW TO WATER RATIOS
SHOULD BE QUITE HIGH PROBABLY EXCEEDING 30:1 THEREFORE...LOOKING AT
A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WHERE SOME LOCAL AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHER DUE TO
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT. GIVEN THE BLOSSOMING RADAR 'RETURNS' NORTH OF
BUFFALO AT 01Z...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY
FOR UP TO 5 INCHES OF FRESH ACCUMULATION.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO AND
BETWEEN ZERO AND 10 BELOW ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. CONCERNED A BIT
ABOUT SOME GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE WAVE AND WE WILL LIKELY
SEE ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND
APPROACHING THESE VALUES ELSEWHERE. WILL THEREFORE ISSUE A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT...BUT HOLD OFF
ELSEWHERE FOR NOW...BUT NONETHELESS WIND CHILLS WILL BE BITTER
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT AT LEAST DOWN TO 10 BELOW IF NOT COLDER. LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE AMOUNT OF GRADIENT WHICH DEVELOPS
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE WAVE FOR OTHER POTENTIAL WIND CHILL
HEADLINES TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...A NORTHWEST LAKE EFFECT REGIME SETS UP WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES PLUNGING DOWN TO NEAR -26C. DRIER AIR WORKING IN AT THE
SAME TIME AS THE ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES DOWN ACROSS THE REGION.
MULTIPLE BANDS PROBABLY NOT RESIDING LONG ENOUGH FOR HEADLINE
CRITERIA SNOWS...UNLESS AN UPSTREAM CONNECTION CAN DEVELOP.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY RISING VERY LITTLE IF AT ALL AND PROBABLY
REMAINING IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER NEW YORK STATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
VERY COLD AIR OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE SOME WEAK LAKE EFFECT
SNOW TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE...RIGHT ALONG THE
LAKESHORE COUNTIES WITH A SMALL SNOWFALL MAX OVER WAYNE AND
NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES WHERE A FEW INCHES OF VERY FLUFFY SNOW IS
EXPECTED. AFTER MIDNIGHT...INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING RIDGE SHOULD CUT OFF ANY
REMAINING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

THE MAIN FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. THE
COMBINATION OF FRESH SNOW COVER...WEAKENING WINDS AND DIMINISHING
CLOUD COVER WILL PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.  THE ENTIRE CWA
WILL LIKELY SEE SUBZERO TEMPERATURES...WITH THE COLDEST READINGS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH THE MINUS 10 TO 15
RANGE ACROSS THE ALLEGANY PLATEAU AND DOWN TO MINUS 30 ACROSS THE
TUG HILL. THE "WARMER' URBAN LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE LAKES WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES DIPPING TO ZERO TO 5 BELOW ZERO.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST
AND REACH THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL DO LITTLE TO
MODERATE THE ARCTIC CHILL...HOWEVER...SINCE AREA TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ON MONDAY.
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS.

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD AIR SLIDE FARTHER TO THE EAST ON
TUESDAY...A LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AND FAR WESTERN ONTARIO PROVINCE...DEPENDING ON WHICH OF
THE ECMWF OR GFS MODELS ONE CHOOSES...WITH A WARM FRONT ALSO LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SNOW
STARTING MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WEST AND SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL CLIMB TO THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE WEST AND LOWER TO MID 20S EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THERE WILL BE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE
TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO THE MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER 20S IN THE WEST TO
THE FINGER LAKES AND IN THE LOWER TEENS TO UPPER SINGLE NUMBERS EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO SPAWN YET
ANOTHER STRONG STORM THAT WILL WORK ITS WAY UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH MID WEEK.  WNY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES
OF THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM AND WE WILL BE WATCHING THE
TRENDS OF EACH OF THE SUITE OF MODEL RUNS TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON
WHETHER OR NOT THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH WESTWARD TO
PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA.
REGARDLESS OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW, IN ITS WAKE WE WILL BE UNDER NW
FLOW ONCE AGAIN WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. EXPECT A BRIEF BREAK AS LAKE EFFECT
DWINDLES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...THEN ANOTHER CLIPPER
STARTS TO DROP ACROSS THE LAKES. THIS WILL BE PRECEDED BY AN UPPER
TROUGH WHICH MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THEN HIGHER CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD SNOW ON SATURDAY.

HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 ON
WEDNESDAY...FALLING BACK TO THE MID 20S THURSDAY AND LOWER 20S ON
FRIDAY WITH THE COLDER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...THEN BACK TO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S ON SATURDAY WITH THE CLIPPER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS EACH NIGHT WITH COLDER SINGLE NUMBER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK CLIPPER LOW WILL PASS ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK...INCLUDING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES. SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT COULD BRING CIGS/VSBYS DOWN TO IFR LEVELS FOR A FEW
HOURS AT KBUF/KIAG...THEN LATER TONIGHT FOR KROC AND KART AS WINDS
COME OFF LK ONTARIO. KJHW WILL LIKELY HAVE IFR VSBYS FOR THE BULK OF
TONIGHT...MAINLY DUE TO OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOWFALL.

ON SUNDAY...A VERY COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LAKE
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE MVFR CONDITONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. KART SHOULD BE THE FIRST TO IMPROVE
WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FROM MID MORNING ON.

.OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS FROM KROC TO KSYR.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND LAKE SNOWS.

&&

.MARINE...
A CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL CROSS THE EASTERN LAKES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A FRESHENING OF THE WINDS ACROSS BOTH LAKES.
WINDS MAY APPROACH 20 KNOTS FOR A PERIOD LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT ON THE NEAR SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO. WAVES WILL ALSO BE A
BIT CHOPPY IN ICE FREE AREAS. SMALL CRAFT FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR WILL ARRIVE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A TRUE ARCTIC AIRMASS BUILDS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST.

WE ARE LIKELY TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THE COLDEST HIGH TEMPS
FOR THE DATE ON SUNDAY AND WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THE RECORD LOW
TEMPS FOR MONDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH IN BOTH CASES WE MAY END UP
BEING JUST CLOSE AS THE RECORDS ARE FAIRLY ROBUST ON BOTH DATES.

RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPS FOR SUNDAY 1/23
BUFFALO  5 IN 1976
ROCHESTER  5 IN 1976
WATERTOWN  -1 IN 1976

RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR MONDAY MORNING 1/24
BUFFALO  -11 IN 1963
ROCHESTER  -10 IN 1963
WATERTOWN  -31 IN 2003

TO PUT THIS COLD INTO HISTORICAL PROSPECTIVE...THE FOLLOWING ARE THE
ALL TIME RECORDS WHICH WILL NOT BE CHALLENGED IN THIS ARCTIC
OUTBREAK.

ALL TIME RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPS
BUFFALO  -3 ON FEB 5TH 1885
ROCHESTER  -4 ON JAN 17TH 1982
WATERTOWN  -12 ON JAN 3RD 1981

ALL TIME RECORD LOWS
BUFFALO  -20 ON FEB 2ND 1961
ROCHESTER  -22 ON FEB 9TH 1934
WATERTOWN  -43 ON JAN 16TH 1994

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ006>008.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ006>008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ001-010.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...RSH/TMA
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...TMA
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK
Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 22, 4:40 PM EST, 3 hours 33 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
440 PM EST SAT JAN 22 2011

NYZ006>008-232145-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
440 PM EST SAT JAN 22 2011

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY...
...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. EXPECT WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM 20 BELOW ZERO TO 25
BELOW ZERO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND CHILL ADVISORY.
   WIND CHILL WATCH.

A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO
15 ABOVE ZERO. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 BELOW
ZERO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. WIND CHILLS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL AVERAGE
10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO...WITH VALUES GOING DOWN TO 35 TO 40 BELOW
ZERO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085-232145-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
SOUTHERN ERIE-
440 PM EST SAT JAN 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO
10 ABOVE ZERO. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
WITH WIND CHILLS AVERAGING 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO. IF UPDATED
FORECASTS SHOW COLDER WIND CHILLS...ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-232145-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
440 PM EST SAT JAN 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

RSH

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jan 22, 2:58 PM EST, 5 hours 15 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
258 PM EST SAT JAN 22 2011

NYZ006-222200-
OSWEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OSWEGO
258 PM EST SAT JAN 22 2011

A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY...GENERALLY
ALONG A LINE FROM THE NORTHERN PARTS OF OSWEGO...TO PULASKI...WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH THROUGH 5PM. THIS BAND OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF OSWEGO BY 330PM...HOWEVER SNOW WILL
PERSIST ACROSS PULASKI THROUGH 5PM. SNOW WITHIN THIS BAND WILL
ACCUMULATE AT AROUND AN INCH PER HOUR. IN ADDITION TO THE
SNOW...VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO A HALF MILE AT TIMES...THE
RESULT OF BLOWING SNOW. MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO SLOW DOWN AND BE
AWARE OF SLIPPERY SPOTS ON SNOW COVERED ROADS.
Special weather statement, Jan 22, 7:44 PM EST, 29 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
744 PM EST SAT JAN 22 2011

NYZ001-010-230215-
NIAGARA-NORTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...BUFFALO
744 PM EST SAT JAN 22 2011

...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW NORTH OF BUFFALO THIS EVENING...

WHILE LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS ALL OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER THIS
EVENING...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IS INDICATING
THAT MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS FALLING OVER NIAGARA
COUNTY AND GRAND ISLAND. THIS HEAVIER SNOW WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY BETWEEN 8:30 AND 10:30 THIS EVENING.
SNOW FALL RATES OF AN INCH OR TWO PER HOUR IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.

ROADWAYS NORTH OF BUFFALO EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE FRESHLY SNOW
COVERED SO MOTORISTS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH
THEIR DESTINATION.

RSH

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 23, 10:15 AM ESTWind Chill WarningBUFJefferson, Lewis, Oswego23 hr
Jan 23, 10:15 AM ESTWind Chill AdvisoryBUFAllegany, Cattaraugus, Cayuga, Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee and 7 more23 hr

Nearby

Lake Effect Snow Advisories in New York, 2011Every lake effect snow advisory in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.