Alert archive / New York / Areal Flood Advisories in 2011

Areal Flood Advisory 44, NWS Buffalo, NY

June 28, 2011Jefferson County, Lewis County, Oswego County, New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this areal flood advisory at Jun 28, 2011, 4:45 PM EDT for Jefferson County, Lewis County, Oswego County, New York. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jun 28, 2011, 4:45 PM EDT (20:45 UTC)
Expired: Jun 28, 2011, 7:45 PM EDT
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: NWS Buffalo, NY
Area: Storm-based polygon

Counties Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Oswego County, NY

The radar

The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 18 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:48 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 205 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1038 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 26 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 39 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 81 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this areal flood advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this areal flood advisory went out at Jun 28, 3:43 PM EDT, 1 hour 2 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 28, 3:43 PM EDT, 1 hour 2 minutes before

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Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 28, 5:46 AM EDT, 10 hours 59 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
546 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-291000-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
546 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-291000-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
546 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jun 28, 3:12 PM EDT, 1 hour 33 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
312 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011

NYZ013-014-282015-
LIVINGSTON NY-ONTARIO NY-
312 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE AREA...

* AT 310 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...AND VERY
  HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GROVELAND...AND MOVING
  EAST AT 30 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM MAY INCLUDE...
  CONESUS...
  SPRINGWATER...
  CANADICE...
  HONEOYE...
  NAPLES...
  BRISTOL MOUNTAIN...
  COTTAGE CITY...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

LAT...LON 4272 7790 4289 7708 4276 7704 4276 7731
      4272 7734 4267 7735 4266 7736 4259 7736
      4257 7759 4257 7765 4256 7766 4254 7785

TJP

Special weather statement, Jun 28, 3:42 PM EDT, 1 hour 3 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
342 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011

NYZ005-006-282045-
CAYUGA NY-OSWEGO NY-
342 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA...

* AT 338 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...
  STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.  THESE STORMS WERE
  LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM OSWEGO TO 19 MILES SOUTHWEST
  OF WEEDSPORT...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCLUDE...
  FULTON...

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

LAT...LON 4347 7578 4346 7582 4333 7588 4332 7585
      4315 7588 4319 7608 4326 7620 4320 7622
      4323 7644 4322 7647 4311 7647 4310 7649
      4303 7650 4303 7671 4334 7670 4353 7642
      4351 7576

JJR

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 28, 3:12 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	BUF	Livingston	63 min
Jun 28, 3:33 PM EDT	Small Craft Advisory	BUF		36 hr
Jun 28, 3:42 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	BUF	Oswego	63 min
Jun 28, 5:18 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BUF	Lewis	57 min

Nearby

Areal Flood Advisories in New York, 2011 Every areal flood advisory in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.